- | Joined Sep 2007 | Status: London | 187 Posts
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
No brainer fundamental trades 55 replies
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Selling USD and YEN is a no brainer. 12 replies
DislikedCAD is a hard call right now because its a little ambiguous, due to the fact that lower support has been sloshed around for a little while, and there are multiple support levels which might or might not stick. The goal is to find the next decent retracement on this pair.
Take a look at this chart. You're right, this whole area holds some significance, but after Friday's bounce I feel the strongest support is just slightly lower, from .9918 up to .9934. It really is a tougher call to pinpoint this one to the pip, but I feel reversal in this area of some significance is to be noticed. Shaving off a couple on top and a couple on the bottom to narrow the range and doing some rounding, I would say:
Buy USD/CAD .9930 to .9920 (as low as possible, of course)
There's a chance I might might miss this one if it starts heading back starting at .9934 or higher, but I have a feeling it will move lower; just being conservative and avoiding any red as possible.Ignored
DislikedNo problem. I see a "POTENTIAL" GU trade coming up soon. On the 30M chart, price is getting ready to enter the ADSR. Since a trend has not yet been really solidified, I'd like to see a clean break to the upside, without a bite through the 50 SMA. But it's worth watching.Ignored
DislikedCAD is a hard call right now because its a little ambiguous, due to the fact that lower support has been sloshed around for a little while, and there are multiple support levels which might or might not stick. The goal is to find the next decent retracement on this pair.
Take a look at this chart. You're right, this whole area holds some significance, but after Friday's bounce I feel the strongest support is just slightly lower, from .9918 up to .9934. It really is a tougher call to pinpoint this one to the pip, but I feel reversal in this area of some significance is to be noticed. Shaving off a couple on top and a couple on the bottom to narrow the range and doing some rounding, I would say:
Buy USD/CAD .9930 to .9920 (as low as possible, of course)
There's a chance I might might miss this one if it starts heading back starting at .9934 or higher, but I have a feeling it will move lower; just being conservative and avoiding any red as possible.Ignored
DislikedI went light on this to begin with as per earlier posts, but because its showing small hints of a breakdown I took a little more off just to keep my sanity. It went to the bottom of the zone as discussed and is sitting there right now. You can see from any chart that this area shows support in general but its starting to deteriorate. I'm still looking for a move upwards so I'm not getting scared away on this one; just wanted to keep you posted.
So +19 to +23 max so far. In terms of the daily range for the bar itself, I gather its somewhere near the bottom. Next major area is in the .9890 to .9870 range.
Decent day overall, got +40 on NZD, and IronMan's Citi analysis we talked about last week turned out to be good for another +40 so far on the same pair.
I was looking for a buy on GBP in the 1.9500 area, but I think I want to see it break it first, the way the day is going, down to appx. 1.9493, which isnt far away....still debatingIgnored
DislikedI went light on this to begin with as per earlier posts, but because its showing small hints of a breakdown I took a little more off just to keep my sanity. It went to the bottom of the zone as discussed and is sitting there right now. You can see from any chart that this area shows support in general but its starting to deteriorate. I'm still looking for a move upwards so I'm not getting scared away on this one; just wanted to keep you posted.
So +19 to +23 max so far. In terms of the daily range for the bar itself, I gather its somewhere near the bottom. Next major area is in the .9890 to .9870 range.
Decent day overall, got +40 on NZD, and IronMan's Citi analysis we talked about last week turned out to be good for another +40 so far on the same pair. I had some other winners today but didnt post because I'm trying to keep the strategies here as consistent as possible. Might reevaluate that though and keep you guys in the loop on some other occurrances, or maybe start another thread for all trades, not just the ones at the top of my conviction list.
I was looking for a buy on GBP in the 1.9500 area, but I think I want to see it break it first, the way the day is going, down to appx. 1.9493, which isnt far away....still debatingIgnored
Dislikedabout GU, theres a really strong support lvl at 1.9361 and has bounced a couple of times, and its forming a descending triangleIgnored
Dislikedabout GU, theres a really strong support lvl at 1.9361 and has bounced a couple of times, and its forming a descending triangleIgnored
Dislikedabout GU, theres a really strong support lvl at 1.9361 and has bounced a couple of times, and its forming a descending triangleIgnored
DislikedI dont mind at all....
Here's what I basically do:
1. Find a strong level of support/resistance and fade as explained in previous posts.
2. At 15 - 20 pips move your stop to breakeven
3. At around 40 pips take partial profit
4. Let the rest run to your target
5. Keep a small amount open in case of a run further
6. Be patient. Dont jump the gun and close out a runner or if you're in the red for a short time. If you are certain about something, stay with it. And use stops wisely.
to be more specific with your question, I assume that the entry will hold based on its strength. the worst that can happen is that I get stopped out at breakeven or take partial off the table. at that point I draw the retracement from top to bottom and locate a reasonable target. use a stop loss of course on entry, but make sure it makes sense if there are strong levels not too far away. price might bounce off of these as well, in which case, you dont want to get stopped out. like on CAD today.Ignored
DislikedWhat TF did you use? Any chance of posting a screenshot? I tried to spot it but in vain. ThanksIgnored
DislikedBilly Ray,
My suggestion would be that from now on when you are sharing that "90%" type trade that you simply put the initials "NB" in front of it so that it is clear.Ignored
DislikedHi everyone,
I'm starting this thread for the benefit of all for trade setups with 90%+- accuracy and reliability. When I say this I'm talking about posting trades with obvious levels of heavy support and resistance where not getting in seems like the dumbest thing to do. For the Negative Nancy's out there please dont scorn me on the 90% accuracy figure. Find another hobby. With most of these trades you could atleast scalp for 20 pips, others have paid out hundreds of pips.
If you feel you have something please post but make sure your confidence level is way above average.
Here are some on the way or in progress:
USD/JPY short, 105.70 to 105.60
hit it 3 times and made a nice bounce everytime, expecting the same to happen today or tomorrow if price makes it up there. Shorting lower level resistance at 104.44 is paying out about 25 pips right now.
USD/CHF short, 1.0630 to 1.0620
high of the recent s/r levels. Right now its bouncing off of 1.0600 resistance giving a good 30pip payout
GBP/USD long, 1.9362 to 1.9388
this one is in progress but here for demonstration...about 40 pips so far. Another opportunity for a long is coming at 1.9337
Thanks, please keep them coming. I'm generally very busy but if I have the time to post I'll be sure to.Ignored
DislikedBilly Ray,
New to this forum and hope I am doing this correctly. I am a fairly new trader and in search of as much knowledge as possible. Stumbled on your thread on Friday. Have learned some things already just by reading the interaction between you and Cisco,etc. Unfortunately, the thing that attracted me to your thread was the " No Brainer" heading and your intro about 90% trade set-ups. Have taken 2 trades...A/D on Friday which turned out to be a loser( Fortunately, because I followed your advice on this post whenI got 20 pips up I brought my stop to break even, so when the bottom fell out I didn't lose anything.)
The second trade I took was CAD today to buy.Right now that is still down and sort of lnguishing around. I do believe that it will bounce back as you predict.
I would like to ask one question and make one suggestion..
My question is...on several occasions you have mentioned taking smaller profits out and even say that on Friday's A/D trade your first level was good for 25 pips.But in this post you say that your initial goal is 40 pips?. How do you determine when to take profit earlier than 40? I find my greatest mental adversary is not when to cut a loss but when to book a gain! Could you elaborate on your method for taking gains off the table that are smaller than your goal of 40?
Secondly, my suggestion..... Since the purpose of this thread is" No Brainer..90% Trades" would you consider labeling that trade when you list it. In your discussion of trades with other Posters you seem to be agreeing sometimes and even entering trades but I'm not sure if they are true "NB" trades. Today's CAD buy is a good example. Was That a "NB" trade? You seemed a little hesitent about it so I wasn't sure. My suggestion would be that from now on when you are sharing that "90%" type trade that you simply put the initials "NB" in front of it so that it is clear. Anyway....just a suggestion.
Let me say "Thanks" for taking the time to share your knowledge with those of us who are " learning the ropes" Your experienced advice and direction is invaluable.Will be following this thread every day!Ignored