Ghost
Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
NZD - rate statement - help 15 replies
Historic Charts: NZD Interest Rate Statement 8 replies
BOC Interest Rate Statement 7 replies
ECB Interest Rate Statement ! 3 replies
DislikedI notice that the GBP(AUD and NZD) pairs are very volatile to news. THe AUD CPi gave GBPAUD a 300 pip move lastnight. I never saw something like that before.
now NZD interest rate came out steady regardless of low cpi and retail sales. even though rates are steady. the GPBNZD went up 70 pips. then plummets to 200 pips+ below the top of the spike.
imagine if the rate was hikedIgnored
Dislikedwell , we have it again, this time there will be probably a move, we're going to see but who knows, what will happened, if they hike, what will happened? No idea , but it seems if they dont hike, we'll see a good move going down nzdusd, any thought if they hike what will happen?Ignored
DislikedI was thinking the same thing - if no hike I think NZD will head south with a huge move. General consensus is rates will be raised for the first time since Dec 2005 - 13 out of 14 analysts interviewed by Bloomberg confirm this view. But seeing as a hike is widely expected - will it cause any major movement? Maybe we'll have to wait and see... Anyone??Ignored
QuoteDislikedNZD: Hit hard in the recent carry unwinding and increased risk aversion, the
NZD dropped 5% on a trade-weighted basis in just over a week and by over
8% vs the JPY to strong technical support level at 77.50. However, the yield
differential between the NZD and most majors, particularly the JPY, remains
attractive. In its December Monthly Policy Statement, the RBNZ noted that
in absense of clear indications of a moderation in housing and domestic
demand, it is likely that further policy tightening will be required. In January,
governor Bollard noted he had underestimated the strength of the housing
market and domestic demand. Indeed, house prices remain elevated, the
labour market is tight (3.7% unemployment rate in Q4) and consumer
spending remains strong (+1.8% in Q4). On the other side CPI has come
down in Q4 to 2.6% compared to 3.5% in Q3. The market has priced in a
hike by 25bp to 7.50% today, which if delivered will increase the
attractiveness of the NZD to investors such as the Japanese. The RBNZ may
find it easier to decide to hike rates today due to recent NZD weakness.
Equity and FX markets including NZD/JPY seem a little more stable now and
we reiterate strong technical support in NZD/JPY at 77.50. Slowly, but warily
investors will edge back into the kiwi providing there are no sudden
reversals. If the RBNZ unexpectedly decides to keep rates on hold, expect
another wave of high-yield selling and JPY gains as positions are cut further.
DislikedRight behind you...
[NZD/USD] is trading a fairly subdued range ahead of the RBNZ policy announcement and statement later tonight. A 25bp hike is widely expected, with the statement expected to suggest that further tightening will be/may be required. Local names look to sell the post-RBNZ rally as some mull the potential end of the tightening cycle. Indeed, one Swiss name has made the bold suggestion of a no-change decision from the CB tonight, given the moderating in housing and domestic demand. Long Aud/Nzd positions have been recommended on the back of this. The headline trades a 0.6820-50 range for now, with US investment bank demand noted up to the highs before UK clearer sales capped trade.
It's gonna be fun, either way... Well, bored as I am with Cable....Ignored
DislikedI agree with you cesarnc - it's going to be fun - and a no hike would be awesome. I guess we will know in 3 1/2 hoursIgnored
QuoteDisliked[IFR Forex Watch]
[ORDERS BOARD]
[18:53 GMT Mar 7] [USD/BRL] Buy USD stops 2.1325 and 2.1525.
[18:52 GMT Mar 7] [USD/CHF] Stops at 1.2190 and 1.2265.
[18:52 GMT Mar 7] [USD/MXN] Stops 11.1200 and 11.2650
[18:37 GMT Mar 7] [NZD/USD] Offers at 0.6860 with bids at 0.6830.
[18:36 GMT Mar 7] [EUR/USD] Bids at 1.3130/35 and 1.3105/10 with offers at
1.3155/60 and 1.3170/75.
[18:35 GMT Mar 7] [USD/JPY] Offers at 116.70 and 116.90/117.00. Bids from
116.20/25 from Japanese names with more buyers at 116.10 and 116.00.
[18:35 GMT Mar 7] [GBP/USD] Bids at 1.9260 & 1.9280 with offers at 1.9325 and
1.9350/60.
DislikedI have no special source for information, but NZ has been having economic problems for a long time and its only hope is to attract outside investment. One of the better ways, and the way they have used in the past, has been to increase the interest rate to make NZD more attractive to outside interests, hence their heave involvement in the carry trade.
Given their economic situation, the most sensible course for their CB will be to increase the rate. There would be no advantage to their to hold the rate steady at this point. It would also be beneficial, at least on the short term, to indicate that further increases are to be expected.Ignored
DislikedI have no special source for information, but NZ has been having economic problems for a long time and its only hope is to attract outside investment. One of the better ways, and the way they have used in the past, has been to increase the interest rate to make NZD more attractive to outside interests, hence their heave involvement in the carry trade.
Given their economic situation, the most sensible course for their CB will be to increase the rate. There would be no advantage to their to hold the rate steady at this point. It would also be beneficial, at least on the short term, to indicate that further increases are to be expected.Ignored