(SP) daily retracements for GbpUsd
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DislikedI am wondering if you have Statistical Probability study for the daily GBP/JPY , telling that :
If the daily trend back to the 23.5% fib + 1 pip , then what will be the Statistical Probability to go to 50% and 61.8%,?
That will be very help to inter the trade after the trend test the 23.5% as confirmation.
thanks for your good workhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gifIgnored
Dislikedgoodthings, you are very thorough in your analysis, well done.
After figuring almost all of this out I am wondering if you are applying the weekly retracement percentage to any timeframe you wish to draw the fib (4hr, 1hr, 15min) levels on and using those weekly percentages on those short time-frame fibs?
Is that right?Ignored
Dislikedgoodthings:
I went back to the beginning of the year from week to week, drawing the fibs.
I had done it a few times, but was unable to gather results the same as yours, would you mind defining the rules you'd used in detail and filters besides the 7 pip tolerance. The chart below shows my counting. I did not apply a pip tolerance, because as I went back it always looked like the smallest gap between a fib and a high/low is over 12 pips when price was near but not touching.
Here are my two sets of results for 30 weeks: using pen, paper and tally.
(a) Test 1
23.6 -(30/30) 100% of the weeks retraced back to this either on the same week, or the following.
38.2 -(28/30) 93%
50.0 -(16/30) 53%
61.8 -(11/30) 37%
(b) Test 2
23.6- (29/30) 97%
38.2- (25/30) 84%
50.0- (16/30) 54%
61.8- (13/30) 44%
In the graphics below when it says "Hit" that is my intention to say that is 1 hit count to add to my tally.
As I understand what you did, you allowed for a hit count if price it the levels on the current week or the following one. The highest variation between your results for the last 30 weeks and mine appear to be at the 61.8 and 50
Maybe you can shed some light..Ignored
DislikedWhen does your day close out. Mine close at 6pm eastern time. On the weekly I use a 10 pip tolerance all the time. Also did you come up with two different results? If you did do you know why?Ignored