11 Mar 24. 0851 IST or 0321 GMT or 2321 EST
Good Morning!
Expected volatility was seen in the FX markets after the US NFP released on Friday, taking the Dollar Index towards 102 and Euro towards 1.10. Now, it must be seen if resistance at 1.10 holds on Euro and support at 102 holds on the Dollar Index for the near term. USDCNY continues to remain indecisive within 7.20-7.18 region while USDJPY and EURJPY have fallen sharply and expect their supports to hold at 160 and 146 respectively. Aussie may dip to 0.6550 before rising back towards 0.67/68. Pound has risen past 1.28 but needs to break past 1.29 to further test 1.30/32 on the upside else can fall to 1.28/2750 before attempting to move up. EURINR tested 90.90 on the upside and unless a break past 91 is seen, it may continue to move within 91-89 region. USDINR tested 82.66 on the NDF. It is to be seen if the pair opens lower on the OTC markets today towards 82.70/65 before moving higher from there.
The US Treasury and the German yields continue to fall. There is room to fall further to test their key supports. Failure to bounce back thereafter can trigger a deeper fall. That will then negate the chances of seeing a rise back. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have broken their range on the downside as expected. The downtrend is likely to resume and more fall can be seen in the coming days.
Dow Jones struggles to rise above 39000 which keeps the danger alive of seeing a fall in the near term. DAX has scope to test 18000-18200 while above 17500. Nifty has scope to test its key immediate resistance ahead before a fall back can be seen. Nikkei tumbled after media report showed that BOJ could end its yield curve control program and negative interest rate policy in its upcoming meeting. Shanghai is hovering below its key resistance zone which if hold can produce a fall from there.
Brent and WTI have fallen back but could find support at $80 and $76/75 respectively. Gold, Silver and Copper have dipped slightly from their last friday high but have key immediate support coming up which may hold and produce a bounce back. Natural Gas has declined but can attempt to rise back while it sustain above 1.80.
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