09 Feb 24. 0858 IST or 0328 GMT or 2228 EST
Good Morning!
The Dollar Index is moving within a very narrow range of 104.60-103.90. Meanwhile Euro has become a bit uncertain due to its lesser volatility, questioning as to whether a rise to 1.08-1.085 will happen or not. However, we may consider a narrow range of 1.0750-1.08 to hold for now. EURJPY is near our mentioned target of 161 from where it may face rejection else could rally to 162 while USDJPY has risen past 149 and can further extend its rise towards 150-151 in the coming sessions. USDCNY continues to trade near its resistance of 7.20. Aussie looks bearish to 0.64-0.635 while below 0.65. Pound is expected to rise towards 1.27-1.28 in the near term with downside limited to 1.25. EURINR is rising towards 89.80/90 as expected. USDINR may continue to trade within 83.10-82.90/80 for the next week as well.
The US Treasury and the German yields continue to move up and are coming closer to their key resistances. We expect the resistances to hold and the yields to see a fresh fall and keep the overall downtrend intact. A strong and sustained break above those resistances is needed to prove our bearish view wrong. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are holding well above their supports. This leaves the chances high to see a corrective rise in the near-term before the overall downtrend resumes. The RBI left the repo rates unchanged at 6.5% yesterday.
Dow Jones remains higher and has scope to see a test of its crucial resistance in the near term from where a correction is possible. DAX is oscillate between 16800 and 17000/17100 but bias is positive to see a break on the upside. Nifty is struggling to breach 22000 decisively. So, the chances of a break above 22150 and rise towards its key resistance might get reduced. It could trade sideways below 22150/22000 for a while. Nikkei has risen sharply breaking above the resistance at 37000 and while this break sustains, there is room to move up further in the coming sessions.
Crude prices have risen sharply well above our expected level and looks likely to head towards their key resistance from where a fall back can be seen again. Gold is indecisive and can remain consolidative for a while. Silver has bounced back as the mentioned support at 22 is holding well and has scope to extend the bounce further in the near term. Natural Gas and Copper continues to dip and remain vulnerable to come down towards their key support.
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