11 Dec 23. 0854 IST or 0324 GMT or 2224 EST
Good Morning!
US NFP data came out higher at 199k from the previous 150k seen in Oct-23 release. Dollar Index trades slightly higher but needs to sustain above 104 to keep the upside intact to target 106 else can come back within the 102-104 range. Euro trades below 1.08 and has fair scope to fall to 1.0650. EURJPY and USDJPY have recovered well from last week’s decline and could continue to move up some more in the near term. Aussie and Pound seem to decline in the near term towards 0.6450 and 1.25 respectively. USDRUB is holding below 94 and could fall back to 90-89. USDCNY has risen sharply and could be headed towards 7.20/22. USDINR could remain ranged within 83.25-83.40 with some possibility of a rise towards 83.50 soon. EURINR could dip to 89.
The US Treasury yields have bounced back. A strong follow-through rise from here can take them higher this week. The US Federal Reserve meeting outcome of Wednesday will be important to watch. That can impact the yield movement. The German yields have bounced but can remain vulnerable to fall back again. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are rising within their sideways range.
Dow Jones remains stuck in a narrow range. DAX continues to move up and remain bullish to target new highs. Nifty touched 21000 on Friday and has scope to rise further from here. Nikkei has rebounded but outlook remains bearish while below the resistance at 33500. Shanghai can bounce back while above the support at 2930-2925.
Crude prices are heading up towards their immediate resistance as expected. Stronger than expected US NFP data release on friday has led to a fall in Gold and Silver prices. Natural Gas has declined sharply below its support and has room to come down further from here. Copper has dipped from friday's high but can bounce back if the support at 3.80 holds.
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