DislikedShorted again on friday @ 1.0881. Open TP at this moment.
Seems the trend is for Bravado to be Paris Hilton...Ignored
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
(False) Breakout & Trend Reversal Strategies?? 12 replies
Trend Reversal Confirmed? 0 replies
POLL- Trend Reversal or Retracement 0 replies
Are we close to TREND REVERSAL? 5 replies
DislikedShorted again on friday @ 1.0881. Open TP at this moment.
Seems the trend is for Bravado to be Paris Hilton...Ignored
DislikedWOW, today's down-move on both USDCAD and EURCAD was too fast and too straight forward for my taste, so I didn't profit from that down thrust in the first couple of hours of London.
Anyone caught that up?Ignored
DislikedI have been reading this thread with great interest, in order to figure out people thoughts & reasons for shorting CAD across the board. Let me explain the rationale behind this drop & cheer up people who are long USD/CAD.
This all started Sept/Oct. 2006, CAD pairs were in a stable down trend, when suddenly one day CAD foreign minister made an announcement that he will start taxing some foreign pool of investment. With this statement it seemed that he had let the cat among the pigeons, there was mayhem. Look at the CAD pairs, EUR/CAD went from 1.42 t0 1.57, GBP/CAD rose some 2000 pips, CAD/JPY came down to 97. There were no fundamentals involved that was pure panic & mindless selling of CAD.
The same thing is happening this time. The fundamentals stay the same, a month of good manipulated data does not mean that Canada is flying high. It is better placed then other economies but not to an extent that its currency should appreciate to this level i.e. 1.08. This i call it mindless buying of CAD, this is happening now-a-days because the hedge fund managers & other investment groups are buying CAD without paying attention to fundamentals, this is risking their clients money & when CAD depreciates then they wont have time to get out & will lose big time. This happened in Feb/March 2007 when all the JPY pairs crashed, because there were too many one sided, non fundamental trades.
How long can this last, not long, unless the Canadians want to live on zinc, & other metals & have oil for the drink. With open market policy around the world there are cheaper commodoties & oil to be had from other countries. CAD will lose the USA market, because no way we are paying them obnoxious prices for their goods.
So now we have determined that all this CAD strength is non fundamental. It will reverse. From where no body knows because technicals always lag behind. Can it go to parity, it might. The more down it goes the more chances you have to be profitable with your long trades.
Bank of Canada is very unlikely to increase the interest rates, even if they do it is already priced in.
Now let me tell you about a scenario which i will implement & i know no body can ever make me lose this trade set up. I might stay in this trade for years.
At present USD/CAD is 1.0830. That means 1 Dollar buys 1.08 Canadian dollars. There are only 10,800 pips to zero. USD/CAD can never ever go to 0.0000. I just entered USD/CAD long at 1.0840 with 1 mini lot which gives me little less than 1 dollar/pip. I have set aside $ 15,000, only for this trade. There is no stop. The limit is 1.2000. Now i dont care where ever it goes. I will enter another long 1 mini lot, if the price goes to 0.9830. For every 1000 pips drop in USD/CAD i will keep on adding 1 mini lot. No stops but limit on all of these is 1.20. I will add more money to my account if need be. This set up you can never ever lose. Just stay put, even if it takes 20 years. At present you get a daily interest of 0.30 dollars on long USD/CAD positions. This positive interest rate is there to stay for at least some time, so no worries there either.Ignored
DislikedKind of wicked how much downward momentum cad has, I have everything up to the 4 hour coming up and it's barely budging. As long as fundies don't get involved, we could finally see a retracement.Ignored
Dislikedlol you're right, so used to just looking at the chart down is down right?Ignored