Looks like the market is gapping lower without me. I don't want to chase it, so unless I see some clear setups develop after the open, I'm going to sit on my hands and wait for a pullback. I still think I was probably a tad premature in my analysis in terms of getting the highest probability trade anyways. On the bright side, it's a sign of progress that I noticed the background telegraphing the down move. I think my VSA journey is something like:
- Have no idea what the background is and get frustrated because it's so vague
- 'Understand' the background to mean 'any high volume bar'
- Go back and forth between overemphasizing and underemphasizing the background as it pertains to current price action
- Become more patient reading the background (but need more reps to ingrain the various patterns) <-- I am here
- Learn the rules well enough that I know when to break them
On a somewhat related note, I feel more comfortable trading live on the Daily than backtesting. It could be that backtesting happens in a bubble, while in live trading, there are more variables that can color my impression of a setup. I am filtering down to the most promising charts along with cross-referencing the strength of the parent Index/S&P500/USD.
Although I've looked at charts daily, I haven't baktested consistently in months. Backtesting gets me more reps at a faster clip and is free, so I think I need to just grin and bear it. I plan on having a LOT of free time in 2023 so I will ramp things up for sure.