Surely if the distribution always equals 0 then the edge must be within that truth .The probability alters as the market maintains that efficiency
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An Edge for an Edge (System Development) 113 replies
What do you mean by "Trader's Edge"? 17 replies
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Disliked{quote} I agree with the sentiment hear and I think the main thing people need to get is, YOU can not save yourself from a negative EV game. There is nothing you can do to beat roulette, even if you play a perfect game (assuming you will continue to play indefinitely).Ignored
Disliked{quote} So the conclusion is that the system is not the Edge or can it if it's in the right hands ? Edge cannot be found, no matter how hard you look for it ? Conclusion must be because it is a Negative Sum Game. Markets keep changing, so past data is useless, only current data can be used ? Now the thread has reached it's conclusion or is there more ? The Best attribute of a trader, the most difficult to master - Patience. I think I am done here, thanks for raeding my posts - Cheers.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Which provides the last question. If achieving a trading edge is so hard, why do traders waste their hard earned income so easily by giving it to their local broker as a grift by trading a live account when they have nothing?. No one better say to be they want to trade a live account because they want to feel real emotions. They are just fools. Even today as a Futures trader, I spend 30 minutes a day practicing extreme scalping drills to sharpen up before I start trading my live account. I need a SIM account to “warn up” and get the “feel...Ignored
Disliked{quote} So the conclusion is that the system is not the Edge or can it if it's in the right hands ? Edge cannot be found, no matter how hard you look for it ? Conclusion must be because it is a Negative Sum Game. Markets keep changing, so past data is useless, only current data can be used ? Now the thread has reached it's conclusion or is there more ? The Best attribute of a trader, the most difficult to master - Patience. I think I am done here, thanks for raeding my posts - Cheers.Ignored
DislikedSurely if the distribution always equals 0 then the edge must be within that truth .The probability alters as the market maintains that efficiencyIgnored
The summed EV of every outcome is also -2.2998.
Next, let's modify the distribution with some basic rules to target excess kurtosis. They are:
This changes the distribution of outcomes to be:
DislikedFew Points about "The Edge": 1. Back Test "The Hell" out of it 2. Prepare detail Plan on how you will be trading it 3. Front Test the edge with 500 trades before you go Live 4. While Front testing - do not change anything, follow the plan 5. Start working on your psychology while Front Testing (Mark Douglas you tube videos always helped me) 6. After success in 500 trades, Go Live 7. Go Live with the minimum trade position, gradually increase if successful 8. Make Money and Live Good and Party Hard!Ignored
Disliked{quote} RickM practicing SIM scalping to be in tune with the markets before live scalping. You want to be within momentum of the market. You Go Boyyy! The word "Momentum" is very underappreciated and it got nothing to do with any indicators.Ignored
Disliked{quote} I think I was misunderstood. Edge is present in the deviations from "normal". It's always there (if it's there at all). A simple example. In options, there is something called Implied Volatility and it's an input into option prices. The value of IV is the theoretical 1 SD move possible for the underlying. This means that 68% of the time, the price will land in between the 1 SD bands, and 32% of the time it will be outside these bands (if markets were normally distributed). Selling options when IV is high is profitable because IV is overstated,...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Although, and I add without flippant regard to the topic, this man gives some insight to his experience and he said he aims for 90% or better win rate. Interesting. What is his edge from what you hear and see? Not a test just curious. His team trades his calls which he also sells, not endorsing his professional grade service, but he seems a rarity for the simple fact he watches and calls as if he is the wise one. If this is too sensitive please ignore. All the best.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Interesting a succesful trader who loves indicators - Lets get over this "I'm only a hero if I trade with naked charts" bullshit. A edge is earned with a lot of sweat regardless of whether indicators are used or not. I have Zoltan (Profitfarmer) screaming in my ear shouting out just one thing. A trader who has an Edge is one who shows profit in a P&L ledger - THATS ITIgnored
DislikedA lot have been said on this thread... I personally appreciate the efforts of everyone for your amaizing contribution, however i didn't understand why no one spoke about the most important variable " Time" in finding the edge Is edge time independent?? I would like to hear from you buddies and I'll gladly share something worth discussing, something helped me to be consistent With regards TonyIgnored