Like this area and nibbling at eu longs a bit. Might back up the trike soon. (Had to sell the truck). Thanks and good weekend to all here. Great thread for lurking.
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DislikedLike this area and nibbling at eu longs a bit. Might back up the trike soon. (Had to sell the truck). Thanks and good weekend to all here. Great thread for lurking.Ignored
DislikedI closed before the market. I did decent on the eu this week. I was hunting heavy after 083x.. It hurt my feelings to close off that level. But the election made me be cautious. {image}Ignored
DislikedCOT report this week for Mar 30 to Apr5, Eur price moved from 1.1184 high to 1.0900 low , hedge funds added Eur longs and shorts this week , net longs increased by 5,996 contracts {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} strong battle i think i would say if Macron still on EUR goes up on the short term on the long term i thin Europe is already close if not into recession 10Y bund yields - are at 0.7 but they invented a mechanism on Friday to temper the jump in yields because they can't raise rates enough so market is pricing in 0.7 at 10Y while interest rate is 0 - so about 3X what ECB is saying for this year. meanwhile 10y US yields - got to 2.7 on Friday on a rate of 0.5% Fed - while we expect another 6 rate hikes of minimum 0.25 maybe some with 0.5 so...Ignored
DislikedSo if there is a long war that cannot be won You have inflation and bonds sold because of higher costs and higher yields. until somthing breaks to fight inflation you can also have a strong currency (AUD/CAD/NZD/USD) 1st Conclusion - you raise interest rates in Europe you get recession - so for now this is one of the first done deals so you don't raise rates and you cannot finish trades with Russia - so that means you keep fighting to get out of energy dependency and hope things doesn't look so bad in Ukraine in the meantime. so Russia, clearly,...Ignored
Dislikedgold.... If gold is in the 1873.57 area. It may be a long. If it closes larger time frames below. It may be a dive. The same with 1980.24.. You dont have to watch these. You can set and forget these. They may take months to develop if ever. Whatever time you use. For a b/o and a trend to follow a month and greater would be best. 1926ish (see chart) may be a tp for either. {image}Ignored
DislikedWhatever happens with France. I may buy 1.083/0790. I try to tp as pa and fear dictates. I dont think 1.0995 is asking too much. 1053/66 even better. Possible short near 1066.. This same plan may get vogue with a summer range Some overshoot R 1081 and 1088. 0835.5 is a large level. So i have to let it play out.Ignored
Disliked{quote} PS the trend is down. I'm not abandoning the short bias. Just being realistic about 0835.5 as a support. Plus its summer, it may stay in the range for a while. The closest large close is the month ending. 0994 is mid range to me. 1064 is 3/4. 0900.1 is 1/4Ignored
DislikedAbsenteeism in french presidential elections 2022 at 12 o'clock...not good for Macron... {image}Ignored