DislikedYou are basically trying to solve the market with an equation. What does that sound like ?Ignored
About the expexted value. Yes the success rate or risk/reward ratio does not mean anything looking at it in a isolated way. You can have a high win rate of >99% and still end up losing, you can have a great risk/reward 1:10 and still end up making no money. You can have a great overall system/strategy and still end up making no money from trading because xyz external factor/s or internal (the brain management, psychological aspect) start playing against you. So...
I don't want to get so philosophical here. Yes, i basically try to find a way to mechanical fix a failed trade because otherwise what other options there are? Reading the market in the moment and acting on intuition, is that what you mean? Well good luck with that. It is then what i am already doing quiet successfull to fix by doing what i said "scalping my ass off at what ever cost/risk". But this is more like a gamble then instead of knowing the expected value and playing out the probabilities. A bank roll certainly helps here but i don´t want to keep risking X unknown amount of Pips/Money and big drawdowns and large losing strikes to get back to my +5 or +-0 again before my last trade/s.
This would be also no option for a prop trading account like FTMO that i am interested in because i wouldn't have to trade for an income then by risking my own money. But there you defnitely then have strict rules to follow otherwise you are out. So risking X unknown is no option to end up at the +5 at what ever cost it means here. So no idea how i would be able to do this with only the one setup/market for a fixed amount of time per day, already hard enough to realize that with my own money and not so strict drawdown rules...
Taking the second, third or forth following break of the BillyBar to me is not "trading more of the same strategy". Entering a second break of the BillyBar after my first initital trade idea failed to me is a complete new, seperated trade that is then also backed by it's own statistics i gathered to get me an edge, otherwise i would be stupid doing this right?
I could use a complete new/different setup and this would be not any better then if not knowing the expected value/probabilities from this new setup/strategy?
Chasing the daily range to me sounds like nothing else then if i would say "chase the rabbit running there..." You could shoot 20 times a day and not hit the rabbit right because it was running up and down and you left with no further bullets anymore. So without knowing what EXACTLY it is no help to me.
Also it requires you to have a stable environment. If you want to trade the same instrument/market and nothing else, the volatility becomes an issue. I am still not sure about that.
Today we moved a 36 Pips range so far up and down on GBP/USD and the BillyBar range was 12.3 Pips to me. I haven't traded it because i wasn't there but lets say i would have entered on the high break and it failed, i would be down -13/14 Pips (to count in spread/com). So i then would have to make at least a +13 Pips with my next steps (what ever these are) to get back to break even. Quiet simple to understand. REMEMBER again, i do not try to do this to grow my account at a unknown number over the long run, thats a complete different game. I have lots of other investments that are really long term and definitely less a stress than day trading for this.
I do try to make X min. money at the end of EVERY month i can withdraw then. Well at least not losing and make what ever profit at the end of a month would be already great if that would mean having a 100% clue of what am i am going to do in what ever possible situation/outcome and not having to do any guesswork where to enter/exit when on what and so on.
Oh and have a great day mate and thanks for all your support so far. Apppreciate it much.
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