Thinking in a probabilistic way 9 replies
bo7a method... method for GBP/JPY 205 replies
Quant trading & QuantLib 6 replies
Quant Corner 12 replies
questions from a future quant 39 replies
DislikedIn this post i'll show you a fact. This is what happens if you take all the 0 hour bars H1 and you "glue" them (taken from metaquotes demo server (GMT 0), maybe it could vary for other brokers). For every bar is one day, and youll see how strange thing have worked for the ~1300 last days straight in EURUSD... Of course this is not tradable due to high spreads and slipage during this hour {image}Ignored
DislikedIn this post i'll show you a fact. This is what happens if you take all the 0 hour bars H1 and you "glue" them (taken from metaquotes demo server (GMT 0), maybe it could vary for other brokers). For every bar is one day, and youll see how strange thing have worked for the ~1300 last days straight in EURUSD... Of course this is not tradable due to high spreads and slipage during this hour {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} This is interesting. Have you tried applying this to other hours for other pairs? I'm unable to get the same bullish bias with my own tabulated occurrences though (For both demo and live). Are you essentially suggesting that at Tokyo Open, there is a bullish bias for 1 hour for the past x days? This is EURUSD (GMT+2 broker) from a live chart for the last 317 days. It plots the number of bull & bear candles for each hour. You can see that for hours 0 and 1, there seems to be a bullish bias for the past 317 days (Not in the hour that you stated,...Ignored
DislikedFibonacci Sequence ..any idea to calculate probability..probability to hit minimum retracement and maximum retracement. Right now GU H1 already hit Projection of Cycle 1 ( 337 pips more or less) and did not hit min and max retrace yet... then make another 334 pips before hit point of retrace (minimum retrace) of 2nd Cycle. Next move is? continue to maximum retrace of Cycle 2 (140 pips) or Just stop there and continue to the projection of CYCLE 2? related to this topic? {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} I have created candles. Quants renko realistic online long time ago. It will draw Candle at the candle close. So if you attach on 1hr chart and input 1000 points. It will generate from Start date renko charts whenever candle closed > 100 pips. So there can be some candles higher than 100 but it will be atleast 100 most of the time. However with this candles you can attempt to get the probability of next bar. Then it will give some results and then you can know that it will close At X pips. I think color pattern is one of the tricks. Like...Ignored
DislikedGuys, the chart i posted before doesn't say that we have more up bars than down (that it's very possible), it says that the mathematical expectation is positive (and also that it is very consistent in time). You could have a strategy with 1 pip of take profit and 100 pips stop loss and probabilities would be on your side but the mathematical expectation wouldn't be so good. You have to care that the mathematical expectancy is in your favor, otherwise beautiful probabilities numbers are not going to help, you have to take in consideration how much...Ignored
QuoteDislikedI have created candles. Quants renko realistic online long time ago.
It will draw Candle at the candle close. So if you attach on 1hr chart and input 1000 points. It will generate from Start date renko charts whenever candle closed > 100 pips.
So there can be some candles higher than 100 but it will be atleast 100 most of the time.
However with this candles you can attempt to get the probability of next bar. Then it will give some results and then you can know that it will close At X pips.
I think color pattern is one of the tricks.
Like after...
Disliked{quote} I have created candles. Quants renko realistic online long time ago. It will draw Candle at the candle close. So if you attach on 1hr chart and input 1000 points. It will generate from Start date renko charts whenever candle closed > 100 pips. So there can be some candles higher than 100 but it will be atleast 100 most of the time. However with this candles you can attempt to get the probability of next bar. Then it will give some results and then you can know that it will close At X pips. I think color pattern is one of the tricks. Like...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Thanks for elaborating, really appreciate it. Help us laymen out a little, I don't quite understand what you've mentioned regarding mathematical expectation and what it really means from a price movement standpoint. Please pardon my ignorance, it may be my lack of in-depth understanding of probabilities. Would appreciate it if you could share more - I understand mathematical expectation as an indicator of an occurrence of an event. A mathematical expectation of 0 = no occurrence of the said event A mathematical expectation of > 0 = there...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Thanks for elaborating, really appreciate it. Help us laymen out a little, I don't quite understand what you've mentioned regarding mathematical expectation and what it really means from a price movement standpoint. Please pardon my ignorance, it may be my lack of in-depth understanding of probabilities. Would appreciate it if you could share more - I understand mathematical expectation as an indicator of an occurrence of an event. A mathematical expectation of 0 = no occurrence of the said event A mathematical expectation of > 0 = there...Ignored
Disliked{quote} I have created candles. Quants renko realistic online long time ago. It will draw Candle at the candle close. So if you attach on 1hr chart and input 1000 points. It will generate from Start date renko charts whenever candle closed > 100 pips. So there can be some candles higher than 100 but it will be atleast 100 most of the time. However with this candles you can attempt to get the probability of next bar. Then it will give some results and then you can know that it will close At X pips. I think color pattern is one of the tricks. Like...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Hi, In answer on your idea for looking for patterns in bar sequences. In your proposal for instance 100 pips bars. In 2012/2013 there was a similar thread with similar idea. Named Fractals, ZZ and the Pissing Dog. Instead of 100 pip bars normal M5/M15 bars where used over a couple of years. This resulted in a very long string of ones and zeroes, one = up bar, zero = down bar. Next the occurrences of substrings of length 4 until 13 where calculated/counted. So for a substring of 4 bars we have 16 different combinations from 0000 upto 1111....Ignored
Disliked{quote} This is interesting. Have you tried applying this to other hours for other pairs? I'm unable to get the same bullish bias with my own tabulated occurrences though (For both demo and live). Are you essentially suggesting that at Tokyo Open, there is a bullish bias for 1 hour for the past x days? This is EURUSD (GMT+2 broker) from a live chart for the last 317 days. It plots the number of bull & bear candles for each hour. You can see that for hours 0 and 1, there seems to be a bullish bias for the past 317 days (Not in the hour that you stated,...Ignored