gbp news at 2am eastern. scenarios: take the gj down during Asia to get a better price for a move up at the news or keep moving the gj up for a better price and move it down at the news. or go both ways and end up where it started. or move it down and keep it moving down after the news or vice versa.
the long term trend is down so any up move would be considered an intraday trade so a smaller take profit. a down move may be a larger longer move. will see what price actions says and maybe today i'll trade what i see.
i need to admit that i'm a little unsettled after yesterday's fiasco, but all i can do is try to forget that and just do my process. My process is all i can control.
took it short.
closed for a few pips. waiting for a re-entry higher. things just not looking how i want them to look. will try again on a tap back to the supply box if the price action and sentiment look better. by looking how i want them to look...i mean i want the moving average closer to price at the supply candle. it may take a few candles for this to happen.
will look to short again at 131.20/24 area if sentiment indicator looks right. if not, i'll look at going long above the supply box in the 131.295 area.
price tapped the 131.204 supply box. shorted, but still not really happy with the moving average being too far away.
Details: the 4 hour chart - price came back up to the previous high from earlier in the day and failed. news coming after a nice move up against the trend. green sentiment was up at the band. 15 min chart - new supply box just below an older supply box from 5/15. and green had gone through upper band and back down. 5 min - green came up under and tapped yellow for a bounce down.
Waiting now for price on the 15 min chart to get below the moving average.
upper area of the session open is at 130.87.
things i don't like: tap back to the new 15 min supply box happened while the moving average is too far from the box, news coming, huge move up yesterday, 5 min chart price broke the down trendline so must now ride the top of it down, 17 pip stop loss - i don't like large stops! means it takes more of a move before i can close half to cover the stop loss. need 17 pips so might have to close 2/3 of the trade. also, price has to deal with the 131.0000000 area. 00 areas are sometimes tough to get through.
11:01pm close half of the lots at 17 and 19 pips to cover the stop loss. Set take profits and going to walk away for the night and get some rest. Will report back tomorrow. Worst case i have a free trade. Best case i'll make pips.
11:12 it's moved down pretty quickly so closed a little more at around 29 pips (sorry, not going to go in and count it to be exact, but will post the trades if you want to count pips.)
pic 3 shows take profits are set, stops are set. shows i've marked up the first hour of the day. and have trend lines on.
pic 4 11:50pm took a 1/2 sized re-entry at the trend line area to see if it will come back down. will keep a close eye on it and close it with very little patience for a loss. ultimately price wants to stay within the trendline.
12:15am i put on another 1/2 sized short at the 00 area. with news at 2am i will not put on any new trades until i get some better direction after the news. my thought process is that any gbp news at 2am about unemployment will be looked at as bad, but that doesn't mean gbp will go down. a lot of times the market will move in opposite direction the news suggests it should.
i forgot to remind myself that price tends to go back and re-test a new box. that's what it's doing now. i should have waited to re-enter there.
1:50am closed out the two half lot trades at 00 and .90 for small losses offset by gain from one of the first trades of this cycle for break even all together. still have 1/6 of the original trade on with a 17 pip stop. Will leave it on through the news and see what happens. my gut says gj will go short after a quick pop up to 131.20 area.
stopped out on the final small size left from earlier.
2:32am shorted at 15 min supply box 131.71. Stopped out - should use close and reverse here, but I'm going to get some sleep.
i have no idea how the UK can add 856,000 people (175,000 more than expected) to unemployment and turn around and claim a 3.9% unemployment rate that is .1% better than last month. Where does this math come from?
i may need to stop running scenarios because nothing is normal right now. just need to focus on being neutral in my thoughts and trade supply demand boxes based on my system.
the long term trend is down so any up move would be considered an intraday trade so a smaller take profit. a down move may be a larger longer move. will see what price actions says and maybe today i'll trade what i see.
i need to admit that i'm a little unsettled after yesterday's fiasco, but all i can do is try to forget that and just do my process. My process is all i can control.
took it short.
closed for a few pips. waiting for a re-entry higher. things just not looking how i want them to look. will try again on a tap back to the supply box if the price action and sentiment look better. by looking how i want them to look...i mean i want the moving average closer to price at the supply candle. it may take a few candles for this to happen.
will look to short again at 131.20/24 area if sentiment indicator looks right. if not, i'll look at going long above the supply box in the 131.295 area.
price tapped the 131.204 supply box. shorted, but still not really happy with the moving average being too far away.
Details: the 4 hour chart - price came back up to the previous high from earlier in the day and failed. news coming after a nice move up against the trend. green sentiment was up at the band. 15 min chart - new supply box just below an older supply box from 5/15. and green had gone through upper band and back down. 5 min - green came up under and tapped yellow for a bounce down.
Waiting now for price on the 15 min chart to get below the moving average.
upper area of the session open is at 130.87.
things i don't like: tap back to the new 15 min supply box happened while the moving average is too far from the box, news coming, huge move up yesterday, 5 min chart price broke the down trendline so must now ride the top of it down, 17 pip stop loss - i don't like large stops! means it takes more of a move before i can close half to cover the stop loss. need 17 pips so might have to close 2/3 of the trade. also, price has to deal with the 131.0000000 area. 00 areas are sometimes tough to get through.
11:01pm close half of the lots at 17 and 19 pips to cover the stop loss. Set take profits and going to walk away for the night and get some rest. Will report back tomorrow. Worst case i have a free trade. Best case i'll make pips.
11:12 it's moved down pretty quickly so closed a little more at around 29 pips (sorry, not going to go in and count it to be exact, but will post the trades if you want to count pips.)
pic 3 shows take profits are set, stops are set. shows i've marked up the first hour of the day. and have trend lines on.
pic 4 11:50pm took a 1/2 sized re-entry at the trend line area to see if it will come back down. will keep a close eye on it and close it with very little patience for a loss. ultimately price wants to stay within the trendline.
12:15am i put on another 1/2 sized short at the 00 area. with news at 2am i will not put on any new trades until i get some better direction after the news. my thought process is that any gbp news at 2am about unemployment will be looked at as bad, but that doesn't mean gbp will go down. a lot of times the market will move in opposite direction the news suggests it should.
i forgot to remind myself that price tends to go back and re-test a new box. that's what it's doing now. i should have waited to re-enter there.
1:50am closed out the two half lot trades at 00 and .90 for small losses offset by gain from one of the first trades of this cycle for break even all together. still have 1/6 of the original trade on with a 17 pip stop. Will leave it on through the news and see what happens. my gut says gj will go short after a quick pop up to 131.20 area.
stopped out on the final small size left from earlier.
2:32am shorted at 15 min supply box 131.71. Stopped out - should use close and reverse here, but I'm going to get some sleep.
i have no idea how the UK can add 856,000 people (175,000 more than expected) to unemployment and turn around and claim a 3.9% unemployment rate that is .1% better than last month. Where does this math come from?
i may need to stop running scenarios because nothing is normal right now. just need to focus on being neutral in my thoughts and trade supply demand boxes based on my system.
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