GPBUSD breakout
Hello cedars,
Welcome to our blog and thank you for your kind compliment. Unfortunately I cannot see which breakout it is because I am not trading the GPBUSD.
First of all, we see that from 11:56 the price looks like it wants to go down. At 11:59 there is a Stopfishing, with the long traders stopped. In this moment sell market orders come in the market, which the big player intercepted via a buy limit order. Then the price was pushed up with market orders and the stops of the short traders (market buy) helped to push the price up. In order to move a price up, it is first necessary that sufficient sell limit orders are available. There are gaps in the upward movement of your chart, which indicates that no sell limit orders were available in this area. First the sell limit orders are eaten up and the price starts the next sell limit orders. If there are no sell limit orders at the next price level, the price level is skipped and a gap is created until if further sell limit orders are available at a higher price level. No purchases or sales can take place in these gaps because there is no liquidity. You can often not see that in the M1 chart. Gaps are created permanently in the market.
At that moment the buy limit orders move up, if there are prospective buyers. It is quite possible that the big player himself placed buy limit orders from 1.30600 in order to support his own price. Because if there was no liquidity, the price would go back completely. At 1.30850 there was either less liquidity or the big player did not use any further market orders. We see gaps again the first time we run down, so that there were not enough buyers with buy limit orders in this area.
Unfortunately, I cannot see at what time the Big Player bought Ask, because to make money he has to buy a certain number of Ask before the outbreak. If he had only pushed the price up without collecting Ask beforehand, he would probably have lost money. This means that the big player has already started collecting his ask from London open or earlier. For that, he should have known a few hours beforehand what would come out of the BOE press release. If the big player had been informed of the result a few minutes before the BOE press release, he probably wouldn't have had much time to collect enough Ask. I rather believe that the big player used the increased volatility to push up his previously collected ask. A very risky game, due to the lack of liquidity. With the right tools, you might be able, to determine where the exit of his position was.
It may also be quite possible that the big player already knew the result the day before. Although he could have prepared for it, he cannot predict how the market will respond. This means that he has to make the decision a few hours in advance whether to buy Ask or Bid. And if he don't have enough money, it can be a big risk. We can see that in many hedge funds that have perished in recent years. The fact is that the big players have better and faster information, like the retail traders, and whether it always helps them is a question that I cannot answer. I recommend to take a look at Stophunting a little, this could significantly increase your chances of winning. You can find the post here.
Key candles in Stophunting
I wish you continued success and I look forward if this blog helping you.
Greetings Michael
Disliked{quote} Hello Bionics, Thanks a lot for your posts which contain a lot of valuable information on the Forex market internals. Please take a look at the below chart which shows the GBPUSD move upwards 15 seconds before the BOE news release. It is a clear sign of how these figures can be leaked to big institutions to give them the upper hand. {image}Ignored
Hello cedars,
Welcome to our blog and thank you for your kind compliment. Unfortunately I cannot see which breakout it is because I am not trading the GPBUSD.
First of all, we see that from 11:56 the price looks like it wants to go down. At 11:59 there is a Stopfishing, with the long traders stopped. In this moment sell market orders come in the market, which the big player intercepted via a buy limit order. Then the price was pushed up with market orders and the stops of the short traders (market buy) helped to push the price up. In order to move a price up, it is first necessary that sufficient sell limit orders are available. There are gaps in the upward movement of your chart, which indicates that no sell limit orders were available in this area. First the sell limit orders are eaten up and the price starts the next sell limit orders. If there are no sell limit orders at the next price level, the price level is skipped and a gap is created until if further sell limit orders are available at a higher price level. No purchases or sales can take place in these gaps because there is no liquidity. You can often not see that in the M1 chart. Gaps are created permanently in the market.
At that moment the buy limit orders move up, if there are prospective buyers. It is quite possible that the big player himself placed buy limit orders from 1.30600 in order to support his own price. Because if there was no liquidity, the price would go back completely. At 1.30850 there was either less liquidity or the big player did not use any further market orders. We see gaps again the first time we run down, so that there were not enough buyers with buy limit orders in this area.
Unfortunately, I cannot see at what time the Big Player bought Ask, because to make money he has to buy a certain number of Ask before the outbreak. If he had only pushed the price up without collecting Ask beforehand, he would probably have lost money. This means that the big player has already started collecting his ask from London open or earlier. For that, he should have known a few hours beforehand what would come out of the BOE press release. If the big player had been informed of the result a few minutes before the BOE press release, he probably wouldn't have had much time to collect enough Ask. I rather believe that the big player used the increased volatility to push up his previously collected ask. A very risky game, due to the lack of liquidity. With the right tools, you might be able, to determine where the exit of his position was.
It may also be quite possible that the big player already knew the result the day before. Although he could have prepared for it, he cannot predict how the market will respond. This means that he has to make the decision a few hours in advance whether to buy Ask or Bid. And if he don't have enough money, it can be a big risk. We can see that in many hedge funds that have perished in recent years. The fact is that the big players have better and faster information, like the retail traders, and whether it always helps them is a question that I cannot answer. I recommend to take a look at Stophunting a little, this could significantly increase your chances of winning. You can find the post here.
Key candles in Stophunting
I wish you continued success and I look forward if this blog helping you.
Greetings Michael
Forget:That does not work, amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
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