Disliked{quote} Interesting that you mentioned consensus was for inflation to pick up. I was not aware of that.Ignored
I'm new to this macro game and that call was very anecdotal. just based on interviews with random people haha.
I agree with you about not knowing where we are in the cycle. I'm assuming you say this based off GDP and inflation data being what happened three months ago not what's happening now? I like the idea of measuring and mapping the rate of change as a way of combating this. any ideas?
also, cool what you found on the s&p. i would love to backtest the s&p and see its average returns during times of decelerating inflation and GDP. imagine that data for every phase of the cycle for every assets class??? a huge amount of work no doubt but then if your forcasts for inflatin are GDP are accurate it seems like you have an awsome playbook for diffrent cycles?? again this is all new to me so please correct my thinking where wrong haha.
How did you learn all this macro stuff? I'm trying to fill my brain with as much info as possible
and thanks for your time!
Jack