A more in depth analysis on that GA pair... For this, I went on analysing GU and AU, to put the odds in my favor when trading GA.
GU, MN shows an upward direction, we are above the 20ema, but with December closed, we see that September is a MC, and December closed as a hanging man. Price is at MN resistance, and it is squeezed between the resistance and TL. Looking from a breakout/retest/continuation point of view, we see that the low of February 2016 was taken out (breakout), now we are back to that area (retest), and continuation down is expected. Putting all these together, my conclusion is that price may consolidate or go down, and if it is to go higher, it is going to need a lot of power to break through the resistance.
W1 shows that we are above the Strat Shadow, but we are in consolidation mode, seen from MC which is also WCC, and we are right at the top, confluence with the MN resistance. Since we are at the top of the WCC, we may see price falling, especially that on H4 there is already an evening star.
AU, MN has been making HHs and HLs since January 2016, and we closed above the 20ema. July is a MC, and we shot up from the bottom of it on December. which is in confluence with the support and the TL. Since I tend to view the last 3 MN candles as a variation of a morning star (I say 'variation' because we do not have a doji candle), if we combine the 3 candles, we get a hammer.
W1 shows that the momentum is up, seen by three W1 candles making HHs and HLs. We are above the Strat Shadow, and the price is targeting the highs, the 200 ema and the MN resistance.
I will be waiting on the D1 for a long signal on the yellow areas. I prefer the deeper one, as it is closer to the MN support. Plus, it gives a better R:R. Even better would be if the signal comes at the magenta line (MN support), as the R:R will be the best on this scenario.
So I am expecting a retrace on AU first, and then the continuation of the upward momentum. My conclusion is that AUD is strong, and GBP is weaker than AUD, since GU is expected to be in consolidation or to fall (based on my analysis).
Knowing this, I move on to GA MN, where I see December closed as a BEEB, under the Strat Shadow, but we are at the support and TL.
W1 shows that we broke the WCC and we formed a hammer at the Strat Shadow, which tells me that I should expect a retest from the breakout/retest/continuation pattern. The retest would be either to the low of the WCC, or to the intersection of the TL and MN magenta horizontal line.
D1 shows a morning star at the 20ema of the Strat Shadow, and if I move even lower, I see on H4 that there has been a stop hunt, and the big boys took the stop losses of the buyers, and they tricked the breakout sellers, which also have their stop losses hit by now (because most likely the SLs were above the consolidation area). Since the stop hunt has been initiated, I can assume the big boys want to take the price a little higher, which makes sence with the W1 analysis of this pair.
Based on this long analysis, my conclusion is that GBPUSD will not move or will move down, AUDUSD will retrace down and then continue upwards, and this results into GA retracing up and then moving downwards.
My analysis could be completely wrong, so do your own analysis and follow your own trading plan.
GU, MN shows an upward direction, we are above the 20ema, but with December closed, we see that September is a MC, and December closed as a hanging man. Price is at MN resistance, and it is squeezed between the resistance and TL. Looking from a breakout/retest/continuation point of view, we see that the low of February 2016 was taken out (breakout), now we are back to that area (retest), and continuation down is expected. Putting all these together, my conclusion is that price may consolidate or go down, and if it is to go higher, it is going to need a lot of power to break through the resistance.
W1 shows that we are above the Strat Shadow, but we are in consolidation mode, seen from MC which is also WCC, and we are right at the top, confluence with the MN resistance. Since we are at the top of the WCC, we may see price falling, especially that on H4 there is already an evening star.
AU, MN has been making HHs and HLs since January 2016, and we closed above the 20ema. July is a MC, and we shot up from the bottom of it on December. which is in confluence with the support and the TL. Since I tend to view the last 3 MN candles as a variation of a morning star (I say 'variation' because we do not have a doji candle), if we combine the 3 candles, we get a hammer.
W1 shows that the momentum is up, seen by three W1 candles making HHs and HLs. We are above the Strat Shadow, and the price is targeting the highs, the 200 ema and the MN resistance.
I will be waiting on the D1 for a long signal on the yellow areas. I prefer the deeper one, as it is closer to the MN support. Plus, it gives a better R:R. Even better would be if the signal comes at the magenta line (MN support), as the R:R will be the best on this scenario.
So I am expecting a retrace on AU first, and then the continuation of the upward momentum. My conclusion is that AUD is strong, and GBP is weaker than AUD, since GU is expected to be in consolidation or to fall (based on my analysis).
Knowing this, I move on to GA MN, where I see December closed as a BEEB, under the Strat Shadow, but we are at the support and TL.
W1 shows that we broke the WCC and we formed a hammer at the Strat Shadow, which tells me that I should expect a retest from the breakout/retest/continuation pattern. The retest would be either to the low of the WCC, or to the intersection of the TL and MN magenta horizontal line.
D1 shows a morning star at the 20ema of the Strat Shadow, and if I move even lower, I see on H4 that there has been a stop hunt, and the big boys took the stop losses of the buyers, and they tricked the breakout sellers, which also have their stop losses hit by now (because most likely the SLs were above the consolidation area). Since the stop hunt has been initiated, I can assume the big boys want to take the price a little higher, which makes sence with the W1 analysis of this pair.
Based on this long analysis, my conclusion is that GBPUSD will not move or will move down, AUDUSD will retrace down and then continue upwards, and this results into GA retracing up and then moving downwards.
My analysis could be completely wrong, so do your own analysis and follow your own trading plan.
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