Greetings to all fellow traders,
First of all, i know all the disadvantages about martingale trading style and lots sizing and averaging tactics. And I am fully aware of the consequences of doing so in bad times like going against trends , or starting your buy or sell series at high or low peaks respectively,. However I believe that if you do it at the right time it would be somehow very profitable.
In my own opinion, and i repeat, MY OWN PERSONAL OPINION, I believe that there is no proven working trading system yet for retail Forex traders. Logically if there was one, the thread about that strategy will be the last thread ever in any Forex forums, like whats the point of proposing and searching for more trading systems if we had a HOLY GRAIL at hand? Unfortunately we do not have that yet, and most probably we wont have it ever. The proof for that argument is all of the dead threads here in FF and other Forex forums about strategies which worked at past times for certain periods, and were extremely popular at those times, but simply the time came where they stopped working. And most probably all of the currently trending and active trading systems threads and future ones will die out eventually. I am not saying this to piss any one off, but its simply what I think.
The reason for that is that we as retail traders have missing information and data about the markets. All technical indicators used by Forex traders are calculated based on historical data, that's it, such indicators do not give any insight what so ever about future outcomes. Retail traders however, decided that by combining such indicators together in a particular order, and following certain rules, they can predict future prices or directions. Well, it works half times, and doesn't work the other half. For example, some traders say that if the price hits the upper band in BB the price should retrace and go south, others say that if that happened it indicates a strong trend and continues north movement. By looking at charts both scenarios happened at that case, so there is no way of successfully predicting the future movement with a chance better than 50:50.
Prices moves based on ask/demand only. The ask/demand is affected by economic news, disasters, wars ... etc. But at the end, its all about ask/demand. We as retail traders do not have such information nor knowledge. Major banks and governments have them and they control them as per their own plans. Japan wants to dump the Yen value to increase exports, the government takes action by reducing asking prices, not the so called investors. A major bank wants good profits, it pumps the price of a certain currency or exotic at the right time and runs with the profits, well that's not us either. Unfortunately, the only way of profiting from that is to have an insider who provides us with such information before the actual event, not after it. So all of the analysis of why the market moved (past tense) there is useless, the event already took place, it's great to know why and how it happened. But unfortunately its useless information for traders, the thing already took place because pf so and so, get over it. However, you can find tons of those insiders and people who are in touch of them in the scam section LOL.
When it comes to martingale trading style, it's the only way in theory to have guaranteed profits. But the theory suggests that you should have enough capital to do so. The market makers are using this technique against us, aside from having the spread advantage, they are hedging our trades in hopes that we lose and they win eventually. That happens because for great risks traders undertake in their position sizing, poor money management and reckless averaging tactics. But if we do martingale correctly, we can change that.
These are my thoughts and opinions, and I would appreciate to hear yours.
Regards.
First of all, i know all the disadvantages about martingale trading style and lots sizing and averaging tactics. And I am fully aware of the consequences of doing so in bad times like going against trends , or starting your buy or sell series at high or low peaks respectively,. However I believe that if you do it at the right time it would be somehow very profitable.
In my own opinion, and i repeat, MY OWN PERSONAL OPINION, I believe that there is no proven working trading system yet for retail Forex traders. Logically if there was one, the thread about that strategy will be the last thread ever in any Forex forums, like whats the point of proposing and searching for more trading systems if we had a HOLY GRAIL at hand? Unfortunately we do not have that yet, and most probably we wont have it ever. The proof for that argument is all of the dead threads here in FF and other Forex forums about strategies which worked at past times for certain periods, and were extremely popular at those times, but simply the time came where they stopped working. And most probably all of the currently trending and active trading systems threads and future ones will die out eventually. I am not saying this to piss any one off, but its simply what I think.
The reason for that is that we as retail traders have missing information and data about the markets. All technical indicators used by Forex traders are calculated based on historical data, that's it, such indicators do not give any insight what so ever about future outcomes. Retail traders however, decided that by combining such indicators together in a particular order, and following certain rules, they can predict future prices or directions. Well, it works half times, and doesn't work the other half. For example, some traders say that if the price hits the upper band in BB the price should retrace and go south, others say that if that happened it indicates a strong trend and continues north movement. By looking at charts both scenarios happened at that case, so there is no way of successfully predicting the future movement with a chance better than 50:50.
Prices moves based on ask/demand only. The ask/demand is affected by economic news, disasters, wars ... etc. But at the end, its all about ask/demand. We as retail traders do not have such information nor knowledge. Major banks and governments have them and they control them as per their own plans. Japan wants to dump the Yen value to increase exports, the government takes action by reducing asking prices, not the so called investors. A major bank wants good profits, it pumps the price of a certain currency or exotic at the right time and runs with the profits, well that's not us either. Unfortunately, the only way of profiting from that is to have an insider who provides us with such information before the actual event, not after it. So all of the analysis of why the market moved (past tense) there is useless, the event already took place, it's great to know why and how it happened. But unfortunately its useless information for traders, the thing already took place because pf so and so, get over it. However, you can find tons of those insiders and people who are in touch of them in the scam section LOL.
When it comes to martingale trading style, it's the only way in theory to have guaranteed profits. But the theory suggests that you should have enough capital to do so. The market makers are using this technique against us, aside from having the spread advantage, they are hedging our trades in hopes that we lose and they win eventually. That happens because for great risks traders undertake in their position sizing, poor money management and reckless averaging tactics. But if we do martingale correctly, we can change that.
These are my thoughts and opinions, and I would appreciate to hear yours.
Regards.