my question is will we get a run or just stop and chop?
- | Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Member | 535 Posts
Ghost
Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
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Quoting enoc2gDislikedmy question is will we get a run or just stop and chop?Ignored
Commerzbank Daily Commentary:
The EUR view:
Ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls, US data today is
unlikely to be trend-setting for EUR/USD, despite a possible dollar negative
impact. Markets will instead focus on the ECB press conference. We, like
the consensus, believe a December hike is a done deal, but at the last
meeting Trichet was reluctant to give a clear message on interest rates in
2007. Considering still strong sentiment indicators in October (German ifo,
Eurozone economic confidence), another increase in rates in the first half of
2007 can’t be ruled out, as the ECB seeks to create some room before it
may have to consider rate cuts further out as the global economy cools. For
the moment European economic indicators are holding up, which is holding
back market doubts of a possible overshooting by the ECB. In the current
USD negative environment, this is giving the EUR further support. By the
same margin, any further deterioration in US data - manufacturing ISM
disapointed Wednesday, but has yet to be really be reflected in the USD –
risks tipping the scales further in favour of the EUR. The risk of a test to the
upside towards 1.2820-50 on an hawkish sounding Trichet remains. If, on the
other hand, Trichet perfers to remain quiet on the ECB’s monetary policy in
2007, the market will focus again on incoming data, like tomorrow’s NFP. It'll
probably take quite a strong NFP report (say above +175K) to push the USD
higher and gains look limited to 1.2660 for now. NFP below 100k, risks the
aforementioned 1.2850 level.
Quoting NewstraderFXDislikedIt's All About the NFP Now
Today's numbers were a non event in the currency markets-equities didn't like them at first-then bounced back. We saw a small pop up in the GBP when it hit some resistance and lowered a bit and continued to bounce around.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record (remember records?...lol) it's all about the NFP and how the long money in London see's it. I'm not making any predictions how they will-but i'll be watching it closely. People vote with their "currency". If a big GBP sell off is seen, then London is protecting their positions and doesn't want to get caught with all their chips on the table. If they leave their chips on the table in the face of about the biggest fundamental report in the world, well then obviously they're not worried about their positions and are probably fairly convinced of a $- result.
**You Must be Aware of Any Revisions. As Seen Last Time an Upward Revision to the Prior Month's Number is $ +**
The thinking is a bit tricky, but here goes:
1. The GBP is still in the high 90's-Traders are very certain their long positions are safe and pretty much convinced the NFP will be $-. They're probably right. I will be long GBP here before 8.30 EST and either live or die with their thnking.
2. 9050-some traders have pared their bets but most are still feeling they're long positions are safe. Good chance of a neutral or $- NFP. I'll go long, but with a smaller position and a tight stop prior to 8.30 EST. Probably a good 70 pip potential off a $- number.
3. 9025-more of the above; less traders see the NFP as $-, but that still doesn't mean they're right. It means they really don't know and that means we don't know either. No position prior to the release. Watch the number and trade accordingly. A number off consensus either way sets up a very nice trade.
4. 9000-The long money is pretty much off the table-the thinking is definately leaning $+. No position before the release; watch the number and trade accordingly. An off consensus $+ number still is a good trade; a $- number is a fantastic trade, maybe 100 pips or more.
5. 8970 or below-the long money is off the table and traders have positioned themselves for a $+ NFP. They're probably right. I'll be short the GBP along with them.
* BTW-If anyone is thinking that lower levels of the GBP is a "fake-out move" and the "smart money" is trying to set up something for the "dumb money"-honestly all of that is way above my head. I guess i'm dumb. If that's the way it turns out-then it's a lesson learned for me.
Remember-these guys are dividing up bonuses of over 1B-they are the best and the brightest; the smartest traders in the world. That doesn't mean that they're right every time, but i'd rather trade with them then against them
Trade accordingly.Ignored
Quoting BurgerKingDislikedTaking cue from history, I took a short @ 9080 TP 9050 and wait for the release..
How I wished I shorted it at my original 9100 last ISM... Darn I hate how ISM ruined my day back then... I had a limit sell but price and ism was so near it I have to upped it to 9150..
Hmm... Japan is on holiday today... move would start with london.Ignored