DislikedFor the life of me cant remember where i read it yesterday, but i remember it correctly. it was a nfp preview based around projections the fed would hike by june 2015 at 200k per month by june 2015 unemployment would fall to 5.8% at 200k per month by june 2015 unemployment would wall to nearly 5%, if there was a half percentage point fall in the labor force participation rate. (0.4% fall occured today so thats already a done deal basically) wonder what it would be based on 300k a month? Fed is running risk of letting things overheat if they cant...Ignored
This trend should solidify itself before any change in accommodative policy. So far it is certainly getting to really assert itself. I think the lagging indicators should catch up to and this would definitely be a sign of the confirmation needed. Or at least some closure around it. Cause right now trying to figure out why people dont give a shit and not looking for work will continue to signal something unsettling. Until then I believe the prevailing view is that it is a lagging indicator and it will catch up as long as the labor market recovery persists.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure