DislikedThe Aussie is getting hit from all directions and the outlook is not promising. The Fed inspired 'taper tantrum' & China's soft HSBC PMI are keeping AUD/USD pinned near near 3 year lows. It's pressing into the 38.2% Fib of Oct. '08- July '11 rally. Widening AU-US yield spreads offer no relief as Aussie bonds take a hit from big exposure from EM investors. Caterpillar announcing global 3-month rolling sales ending in May down 7% is another blow as mining shows no improvement. Copper may kick AUD/USD when it's down. Weekly charts show a massive head...Ignored
I understand all that...so what you are saying are the AUD T-Notes are going to spike...that is what will cause the AUD to head south? I do not think that will do it...not enough...at best you could hope for sideways.... You are correct about copper but look at that PA on that right side of the H&S...that could void the H&S. You could say that H&S is valid but not when the other are all together going up... Stuff like to run in groups... AUD is having problems...but all of those problems are priced in... What you have currently is what you haft to keep your eye on...that what you haft to stay focused on... What dose AUD do...they sell food, commodity, oil&gas, manufacturing... China is a good part of AUD...their are more ships going into and out of china every week and every month for the last few months... Why would their be an incress in ships going into and out of china? Is is because they have nothing todo so they are just buying stuff to sit?? Hmm...I do not think so... The reason why the ship traffic is up is because they are making more stuff... So what are they going to need to make that stuff? Stuff from AUD... thats why AUD exports are up...This is why the commodity are going sideways or moving up... If stuff is being shipped out of AUD....that means someone had to get it too the ships / airplanes. So that is gas, people, equipment...so their should be ECon activity in AUD to make that stuff get to the ships / airplanes... That means AUD should start seeing that in their numbers this month or next month... as far as the T-Notes...that could be a need for money to get that stuff exported...might be the reason for the AUD T-Note move...or it could be a cut down on the carry trade were they sold out of some gov notes and that is the reason...
All in all...I do not see on the "NOW" picture how or why the AUD will drop...the data right "NOW" just dose not support it...if the data changes then yes as I said...you get a move up on FOMC or the Econ activity right now in AUD drops off then yes we will get a leg down on AUD...we do not have that...we have the opposite of that right "NOW".... Haft to stay focused on the "NOW" picture not what has happen in the passed...Passed is the passed and that has minimum effect on the current status...