The AUD Interest Rate Decision contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it projects the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future rate decisions.
Forecast: .25 hike to 4.25%
A negative deviation of .25 (no hike) should move the market -45 to -90 pips
A positive deviation of .25 (.5 hike) should move the market +45 to 90 pips
There has been chatter of no hike due to deteriorating market conditions in Australia. Therefore, a 0 deviation or .25 hike as expected may create an initial spike.
Retracements are not common, unless there is an accompanying statment following the interest rate decision that conflicts with the release deviation.
Retail positioning stands at -1.1 as there are 1.1 sellers for every 1 buyer. < 2 represents a balance of buyers & seller. For live retail positioning information - click here.
The retail positioning ratio signifies a nearly equal number of buyers to sellers and a positive or negative deviation will have the same effect.
Forecast: .25 hike to 4.25%
A negative deviation of .25 (no hike) should move the market -45 to -90 pips
A positive deviation of .25 (.5 hike) should move the market +45 to 90 pips
There has been chatter of no hike due to deteriorating market conditions in Australia. Therefore, a 0 deviation or .25 hike as expected may create an initial spike.
Retracements are not common, unless there is an accompanying statment following the interest rate decision that conflicts with the release deviation.
Retail positioning stands at -1.1 as there are 1.1 sellers for every 1 buyer. < 2 represents a balance of buyers & seller. For live retail positioning information - click here.
The retail positioning ratio signifies a nearly equal number of buyers to sellers and a positive or negative deviation will have the same effect.