Suppose you've backtested a system for 5 currency pairs and you've come up with the following results (hypothetical):
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 255pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=341 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 71pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3474" width=95><COL style="WIDTH: 92pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 4498" span=2 width=123><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl22 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 71pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=95 height=17>Currency Pair</TD><TD class=xl22 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 92pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=123>Growth at VAR 1%</TD><TD class=xl22 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 92pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=123>Growth at VAR 5%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>GBPUSD</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.3">30%</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1.4">140%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>USDJPY</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.24">24%</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.95">95%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>EURCHF</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.2">20%</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.38">38%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>EURCAD</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.19">19%</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.73">73%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>AUDUSD</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.28">28%</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1">100%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
The firs column shows the currency pair. The second column shows the growth of the account if you risk 1% of your account everytime you trade that currency assuming that you trade that specific currency pair only and didn't withdraw funds from your account. The third column shows the growth if you risk 5% of your account.
Suppose that the success rate for every pair is roughly between 60% to 70% and all of them can go down for several weeks before showing a significant growth.
Apparently you have different approaches to trade this system:
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 255pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=341 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 71pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3474" width=95><COL style="WIDTH: 92pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 4498" span=2 width=123><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl22 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 71pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=95 height=17>Currency Pair</TD><TD class=xl22 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 92pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=123>Growth at VAR 1%</TD><TD class=xl22 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 92pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=123>Growth at VAR 5%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>GBPUSD</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.3">30%</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1.4">140%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>USDJPY</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.24">24%</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.95">95%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>EURCHF</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.2">20%</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.38">38%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>EURCAD</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.19">19%</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.73">73%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl23 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>AUDUSD</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.28">28%</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1">100%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
The firs column shows the currency pair. The second column shows the growth of the account if you risk 1% of your account everytime you trade that currency assuming that you trade that specific currency pair only and didn't withdraw funds from your account. The third column shows the growth if you risk 5% of your account.
Suppose that the success rate for every pair is roughly between 60% to 70% and all of them can go down for several weeks before showing a significant growth.
Apparently you have different approaches to trade this system:
- Stick with GBPUSD as it shows the highest growth and set VAR (Value At Risk) to 5% for the best growth possible.
- Trade all 5 currency pairs with this system but set VAR at 1%.
- Trade all 5 currncy pairs but set the VAR for every currency pair based on their past behaviour. For example it doesn't worth it to increase VAR for EURCHF as it doesn't show a significant growth when you increase the risk.
- Other approaches.
What do you suggest? What would be the best approach? Does trading diversification with such system help us to enhance the growth yet mitigate drawdowns?