Hi Sl, I have the count somewhere on my computer for the yen will dig it out over the weekend and try to post it here, I glanced at yours and it is more or less correct I have the one that's done on a monthly, weekly and daily will post it as soon as i find it. I'm beginning to get a very weird feeling as if the markets, I'm reffering now to the indexes and the carry, are being supported by a huge influx of funds every time they begin to gather the momentum for a fall, every time there is push it looks like someone is stopping it on a dime, not good, not good at all.
Here is an example of a manipulation in play, the russian index had a similar count to the Dow, five waves down,(wave1/A) 3 waves up, corrective, waves up were equal in length, perfect bear market scenario, then we had a nice fall that started to look like the beginning of a 3rd bear leg down, and then ooops just in a matter of one week or maybe one and a half we are at new highs, gues why? The new president together with the old one who in now the Head of the Government aparattus declared that the taxes on oil will be reduced and the country needs to grow at a faster pace and drastically fight inflation, that's it no more no less, new highs(all time) bear count out the window and me very happy for not taking the bate of the unfolding bear leg fake. Well, yes I would say that the situation here is pretty good, fundamentally, cycle wise, etc., inmo, but again from a purelly technical perspective it makes no sense at all at the moment, technically the bear was clear and a finish to the move should of happened, it didn't, instead it was some kind of weird s$%^t, don't even want to attempt a count for now, will just watch. Hmmmmmmmmm, that's all I can say, growing a bit impatient by the day as we pass important dates and i see money that are being pumpt in to prevent a meltdown at every little jolt, the fed is nervous and they will do whatever it takes to prevent a meltdown, is it possible?, in theory no, but on practice they may delay it, push it up even more and only then we would have a spectacular fall with the markets possibly being suspended for a few days if not weeks, not possible?! I think there is a better than 65% chance at this point, derivatives are showing signs of strain, the inevitable unwinding of credit has to happen but when? That's another question
Anyhow, you can probably tell I'm a bit frustrated, most likely because \i'm short as hell, if we don't start to break down next week or as i see it now as a more likely scenario in the very beginning of June, i will try to get he hell out of my shorts and the hell out of the market for the summer, sick and tired of playing cat and mouse, have a great weekend
Here is an example of a manipulation in play, the russian index had a similar count to the Dow, five waves down,(wave1/A) 3 waves up, corrective, waves up were equal in length, perfect bear market scenario, then we had a nice fall that started to look like the beginning of a 3rd bear leg down, and then ooops just in a matter of one week or maybe one and a half we are at new highs, gues why? The new president together with the old one who in now the Head of the Government aparattus declared that the taxes on oil will be reduced and the country needs to grow at a faster pace and drastically fight inflation, that's it no more no less, new highs(all time) bear count out the window and me very happy for not taking the bate of the unfolding bear leg fake. Well, yes I would say that the situation here is pretty good, fundamentally, cycle wise, etc., inmo, but again from a purelly technical perspective it makes no sense at all at the moment, technically the bear was clear and a finish to the move should of happened, it didn't, instead it was some kind of weird s$%^t, don't even want to attempt a count for now, will just watch. Hmmmmmmmmm, that's all I can say, growing a bit impatient by the day as we pass important dates and i see money that are being pumpt in to prevent a meltdown at every little jolt, the fed is nervous and they will do whatever it takes to prevent a meltdown, is it possible?, in theory no, but on practice they may delay it, push it up even more and only then we would have a spectacular fall with the markets possibly being suspended for a few days if not weeks, not possible?! I think there is a better than 65% chance at this point, derivatives are showing signs of strain, the inevitable unwinding of credit has to happen but when? That's another question
Anyhow, you can probably tell I'm a bit frustrated, most likely because \i'm short as hell, if we don't start to break down next week or as i see it now as a more likely scenario in the very beginning of June, i will try to get he hell out of my shorts and the hell out of the market for the summer, sick and tired of playing cat and mouse, have a great weekend