Below is the final result fo the short on USDMXN following the logic explained in my Dukascopy webinars lately:
Apparently the markets continue wanting to ignore Donald Trump on NAFTA issue; this MXN was boosted due to a sudden (but not that uncommon anymore) switch of speach of the POTUS.
My GBPUSD long (opened despite of my initial surprise of having NOT a sell-off after UK Supreme Court ruling Brexit) paid off nicely. In my webinars this trade was explained in depth overall the procedure that lead to open this trade amids renewed UK uncertainty that should hit the GBP again in the forseeable future.
According to the inverse-mirror-tandem price action lately registred in both GBPUSD & EURGBP and as explained in my daily webinars, I decided to short this in compaignion for my GBPUSD long. As we can see the correlation continued for quite hours after both trades were opened.
Current wedge, as timing parameter, is showing us a potential breakout to the downside (fundamentally supported and explained during some of my several previous Dukascopy TV Webinars).
Be advised that there are still risks to the upside in any case major players want to keep ignited the bullish steam to make it to the 1.37 to be able to close the weekend-after-Brexit gap price level after several months being unable to do so.
Although this latest scenario looks less likely you should consider it as an acceptable scenario.
For the Asian session the likeliest opportunity for obvious reason is on the USD/JPY as shown in the chart.
In the 1H this Ascending Triangle has been broken to the downside on this week's opening pointing out opportunities.
The overall daily sentiment is in no-man's land direction although some techs indicate the momentum is shrinking signaling a potential new opportunity could be in course.
The 4H bullish momentum is confronting the 1H Neutral sentiment due to this weekly opening gap but in addition we are seeing 30m selling sentiment in course.
To the upside the 115.25 should be watched as a major intraday resistance while to the downside the 114 psychological level may play major support role.
-We reviewed how 4th richest man in the world, the mexican Carlos Slim press conference on Friday shaped a bearish trade of mine kept during the weekend.
-Also we specified how this press conference also had an important influence on Monday's week opening gap on USD weakness.
- We talked about possible geo-strategic risks on Trump's position on wanting Mexico to pay for the border wall
For indepth analysis check out my webinar recording:
-We closed the month reviewing the tentative preliminary final positions in the Trader contest, where i was standing at that time at 13th!
-We also reviewed the contest statistic to point out the important aspects that made me end in this position even when i started trading 1 weed after it started.
- Some of the most emblematic trades were explained again under the light of "post-profit".
- We clearified some approaches when trading in the fundamental direction using Chartist Patterns.
As an example of how relevant are high quality chartist patters we reviewed how even several days after still some chartist patterns decisions are stil respected.
For further details, check the complete recording of my daily webinar:
Across the board the USD regained part of the lost territory on Monday opening after a better than expected major macro US data.
USD/JPY major rectangle in the 4H plus the intraday and daily timeframes techs indicate bearish opportunities with a first TP @ 112 below the bottom of the rectangle.
USD/JPY risks to the upside arise after good macro US data today and the major monthly direction having the first major resistance @ 115.
-The very specific characteristics of the “Social Contest” in comparison to the “Trader Contest”
-The small bullish USD/MXN trade that I opened in the Trader Contest was explained in depth correlating my decision to the latests “news” in the markets on an apparent “threat” by Donald Trump to Mexican President on sending US troops to Mexican soil to combat drug cartels.
Today the USD lost all the gained terrain lately in accordance to the lack of clarity after the FED’s speech on the next steps in the monetary policy. The flaming POTUS with his “unorthodox” way to “communicate” his ideas is not helping the markets to feel comfortable taking risks above the average still under this new administration.
The best perfomer today was the AUD/USD with the following characteristics:
- In the 4H a chartist Channel-Up plus Daily and upper clear direction and strength to the upside suggest tech momentum in such direction.
- In the bearish side we have a massive Ascending Triangle in the 1H just testing the first TP target amidst 1H and lower time frame studies defiant to the downside.
USD was punished by the markets despite a solid stronger-than-expected NFP number due to the fact that salaries (US average hourly earnings) performance disappointed. This may indicate FED won't adopt an aggressive approach in the near future regarding to rate hikes.
The only major exception was the USD/MXN; MXN gained territory mostly due to the fact Mexican Gross Fixed Investment Year-over-Year (+2.8%) was way better than last month’s (-0.9%). Overall considering that this is at least so far showing a NO-panic mode eager to run away from Mexico influenced by POTUS pressures on NAFTA.
Current NZD/USD 1W Channel-Down chart pattern seems to be broken to the upside during these last 2 weeks.
This plus that all intraday and macro relevant timeframes, plus the direction being clear and strengthening this move makes it challenging to defy the current bullish trend.
December's 11th 2016, Engulfing Bearish candlestick pattern been convincingly denied to the upside these last 2 weeks .
The bearish risks are enhanced only by the NZD Futures showing an expectation to the downside
A newly broadening Rising Wedge in the Weekly is apparently confirming my latest post on the very dangerous attempt of defying the recent bullish trend in this pair.
At this week's opening there were no relevant gaps that could indicate a hesitation in the USD bearish sentiment across the board.
Today in my webinar I will comment on an alternative explanation for this weakness that has nothing to do with the recent Friday’s USD fundamentals but could be boosting it.
Today's obvious major news is April's French presidential career where Marine Le Pen represents the anti-EU sentiment that could lead to another division in Europe in any case this woman wins, makes an EU referendum and ends up asking for a EU withdrawal as the UK.
This explains the current weakness in Euro, and in any case in the next future in fact France triggers article 50 also, we could expect a massive sell-of "Cable-like".
In my opinion, France (in opposition to the UK) indeed relies much more on the EU than UK does; so Frexit for me would drop EUR/USD below parity almost immediatly.
This AUD/USD rectangle is the major pattern to be respected for the next days.
Although we had weaker-than-expected retail sales number and the risks to the downside increased amidst major timeframes direction fading away and intraday techs pointing to the downside, still the Daily shows some possibilities to the upside.
Remember to use chartist patterns levels as aid to protect your trades with realistic stop-losses.