A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
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- Joined Feb 2014 | Status: ember | 1,268 Posts
Disliked{quote} I think you are Jumping the gun on this one, you have assumed the market has persistence.... trend, how do you know that? here is where the Hurst exponent, I though would be useful to actually test this hypothesis, However from a sample size of 4227 log returns, it shows H = > hurstexp(x) Simple R/S Hurst estimation: 0.5614027 Corrected R over S Hurst exponent: 0.5815521 Empirical Hurst exponent: 0.5223035 Corrected empirical Hurst exponent: 0.5014898 Theoretical Hurst exponent: 0.5211121 you see I have ran many randomly generated, normally...Ignored
If you wish to study the correlations of dog's steps, go ahead. I think it is futile and irrelevant (and I have a PhD in physics - it taught me never to complicate things more than necessary).
All the best,
k
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Member | 358 Posts
To those sending all the PM's requesting this map, I have released the EURUSD and the EURJPY maps publicly. I do not provide trade signals nor services and the requests will go unanswered.
The EURUSD map is active as well as the EURJPY... I will say that in my opinion, EURUSD looks to make a Level 3 high before it changes course on the map. That follows the market cycles.
-CJ-
The EURUSD map is active as well as the EURJPY... I will say that in my opinion, EURUSD looks to make a Level 3 high before it changes course on the map. That follows the market cycles.
-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Member | 358 Posts
Disliked{quote} AUD/JPY? but most importantly how do you figure the sell orders will be predominant in that environment? (I am not a JPY or AUD trader) are you making this assumptions due to China's slow down in demand for raw materials? how did you arrive to that particular conclusion?Ignored
The last PA indicates trapping volume to the low side....
-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
DislikedMarkets are not random! They are continuous chaotic-reflexive process in which the market participants often act irrationally, based on insufficient information, and on their own biases and expectations, and thus creating random-looking result in the form price action. Basically the market swings between 2 phases : 1. Negative feedback loop ( 70% and up to 90% of the time) 2. Positive feedback loop (often times can lead to bubbles and market flash crashes...) "Reflexivity refers to circular relationships between cause and effect. A reflexive relationship...Ignored
Markets are not random at all which is quite true and are indeed chaotic-reflective processes.
Think of the processes that are involved here.... interpretation of the intent of central banks by key major players..... when the big players take action the smart (top 5%) of retail traders attempt to anticipate the market movement by simply jumping on board for the ride and taking profits well before greed gets a chance to enter the equation and potentially evaporate floating profits.
The feedback loop exists and it is infinitely cyclical in nature by repeating itself again and again and again.
The successful trader understands the market processes, understands that they have no control over the chaotic events but sets out to form an expectation of likely price movements based on 'all' the technical and fundamental trading factors which the trader applies such that the probability of winning the trade is stacked on their side (at least from their own mindset).
The reality is that a profitable and sustainable trader is one which understands and effectively applies risk management techniques and can react in a timely manner when unfavorable changing market events occur and they have the capacity both financially and psychologically to repeat this process over and over again.
An interesting read can be found in the following PhD thesis by Zaccaria, 2011 which outlines various models pertaining to both technical and fundamental traders:
"Complexity in Financial Markets: Models and empirical evidence at the micro and macro level"
Available from here : http://www.phys.uniroma1.it/fisica/s...4/Zaccaria.pdf
My view is that a 'purely' fundamental trader can be a good trader and a 'purely' technical trader can be a good trader but a great trader is simply one which effectively 'marries' the fundamental to the technical and is an expert risk manager.
Masterrmind............ :nerd:
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Stare Into the Lights My Pretties! | 779 Posts
Disliked{quote} Correct me if I am mis-interpreting your argument, it seems to me you are in agreement with my claim. Technical Analysis alone and by that I mean any type of historical price data plotted in a chart along with any other derivative there of, does not bring an edge. What you are alluding to here is Fundamental analysis, the drivers that cause the behaviors of the participants. The economic activity of the country including exports, current account balance, interest rates, and monetary policy. If this is your point, I agree with your view....Ignored
Good traders do not follow mechanical systems. Good traders adapt constantly.
- Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Stare Into the Lights My Pretties! | 779 Posts
Disliked{quote} An interesting read can be found in the following PhD thesis by Zaccaria, 2011 which outlines various models pertaining to both technical and fundamental traders: "Complexity in Financial Markets: Models and empirical evidence at the micro and macro level" Available from here : http://www.phys.uniroma1.it/fisica/s...4/Zaccaria.pdf My view is that a 'purely' fundamental trader can be a good trader and a 'purely' technical trader can be a good trader but a great trader is simply...Ignored
I am already familiar and understand most of these basic concepts but there is always new things to learn. Everyone who really want to gain deeper understanding of the financial markets and how things really work, should read this stuff!
riteee... the ship was so great god cant even shinked it ...... fundyy ...
riteee .... the steell of the ship can only wit stand such a presure before it baned ...... ta
basicly somecounty if fundyy speking IS doo readyly ... but stilll runs healtyy ...
welcome to the world of ... roll the dice ... not shakened .....
2cent
riteee .... the steell of the ship can only wit stand such a presure before it baned ...... ta
basicly somecounty if fundyy speking IS doo readyly ... but stilll runs healtyy ...
welcome to the world of ... roll the dice ... not shakened .....
2cent
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Member | 3,635 Posts
Disliked{quote} This was the SNB sterilized intervention where they put a floor on the euro right? .... just like I profited on the JPY intervention as the BOJ stated usd/jpy at 70 was hurting exports and they would intervene to ease pressure. at the time the AUD/JPY had a good carry trade due to interest rate and it was a very profitable time. These examples however are the systemic shocks ... not the norm... I think they are more in tune with my claim that TA alone does not bring an edge. Piggy backing on the announced intervention of a central bank that...Ignored
- Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Member | 2,680 Posts
Disliked{quote} Your tests definitely show that the market does not show linear correlations. The market indeed does not show first order autocorrelations and is virtually indistinguishable from random data when you look at simple statistical measurements like those you have carried out. However there are tests you can use to determine whether a time series is or is not random that are more involved than what you have just posted and target higher order autocorrelations and more complex associations. Just because you cannot negative the null hypothesis...Ignored
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
- Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Member | 2,680 Posts
DislikedWaoo! This thread already got hijacked in less than 10 hours. Let's try nonetheless... Redlion would you deduct of this picture that it is all randomness? {image} This is the equation to generate the 1st picture: 0.0013t + 9ε Got it? {image}Ignored
are you separating white noise from trend and running an serial correlation test?
seems like you decomposed the data .... but I am not sure
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
- Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Member | 2,680 Posts
Disliked{quote} Also redlion, the fact that you cannot negate a null hypothesis does not mean that your null hypothesis is true! That's a logical fallacy. If you cannot negate the null hypothesis that the market is random it does not make it random, it just means you cannot tell it from randomness through the tests you have applied but there might be many others that can!Ignored
Disliked{quote} If we accept that price is random and the trends in price data are no different from the trends that may also occur in random data then people who profit from trading are simply lucky survivors of a random process.Ignored
QuoteDislikedthe ability to trade profitably is not sufficient to disprove his claim.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
- Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Member | 2,680 Posts
DislikedMarkets are not random! They are continuous chaotic-reflexive process in which the market participants often act irrationally, based on insufficient information, and on their own biases and expectations, and thus creating random-looking result in the form price action. Basically the market swings between 2 phases : 1. Negative feedback loop ( 70% and up to 90% of the time) 2. Positive feedback loop (often times can lead to bubbles and market flash crashes...) "Reflexivity refers to circular relationships between cause and effect. A reflexive relationship...Ignored
if in fact the market acted the way you say it acts a simple runs test would be able to conclusively prove your assertion.... also the market would have mostly negative persistence.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
- Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Member | 2,680 Posts
Disliked{quote} nice ! , this goes really deep! , there should be a whole new thread abbout that topic.. speaking of and covering ... mindfulness , stoicism , antifragility , thinking fast and slow , what makes the barin happy and why you should do the opposite ,6 pillars of selfesteem and the power of habit .... the most fundamental subject one should work on , is the one of self-view, awareness and mind(-set) back on topic.. Price fluctuations are chaotic yes , not random but chaotic , however the underlieng mechanics of transactions are not , the order...Ignored
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AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Member | 358 Posts
Disliked{quote} True the execution of transactions is not random at all there is a paper by the ECB {image} that specifically set out to determine how central banks communicate with inter dealer and open market operations to manipulate price, and how effective central banks are if at all at doing so. It is a complex fascinating system that works with information and like GEFX states the big players are always attempting to reduce risk exposure... he calls it communicating , I do not want to use that analogy because that means that there are clear codes,...Ignored
This is usually the beginning 30-45m of the new session....
-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
Technical analysis alone will give you NO EDGE whatsoever. If it did, retail traders would be taking Goldman and Deutsche to the cleaners - and that's not happening! TA is garbage, based on shaky foundations and poor logic. Dump it - get those silly indicators off your charts, they are lying to you.
- Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Member | 2,680 Posts
Dislikedforex price movement is never random event due to this factors/results in play.Some points included by early responders. 1. Forex Traders and investors are human and they influence the ups and down movement of price.Overall price movement is the reflection of trader's emotion,logics,belief,habits,mistakes,success,projected beliefs,greed,fear etc etc. 2. It is a continuose auction events and this events are influence by demand and supply forces 3. Human psychology and behaviours are fairly predictable because human beings are creatures of habits.The...Ignored
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[4006] 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
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[4096] 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0
[4141] 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1
[4186] 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
here is a chart of cumulative sum of +1, -1
now if you start with $100 and bet it on +1, in other words every day on the market open you bet it will end in a positive candle ( here is the big assumption that you lose exactly $100 dollars when you lose and gain $100 dollars when you win) 100*cumulative sum of 4227 binary +1 -1 data points as a gain would be 100*1 a loss would be 100*-1
this would be your result
100*(cumsum(eurobinary))
[1] -100 -200 -300 -200 -300 -400 -300 -200 -300 -400 -300 -400 -300
[14] -200 -300 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -500 -400 -500 -600 -500 -400
[27] -300 -400 -500 -600 -500 -600 -700 -800 -900 -1000 -900 -1000 -1100
[40] -1000 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1200
[53] -1300 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1300 -1400 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1500
[66] -1600 -1500 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1900 -2000 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2000
[79] -2100 -2000 -2100 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2100 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1700 -1800 -1900
[92] -2000 -1900 -1800 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2200 -2100 -2200 -2300 -2400 -2500 -2400
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[2523] -4300 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4500
[2536] -4600 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4800
[2549] -4900 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4900 -5000 -4900 -5000 -4900
[2562] -5000 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4400
[2575] -4300 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700
[2588] -4800 -4900 -4800 -4900 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4800
[2601] -4700 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4500
[2614] -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4100 -4000 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4400
[2627] -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4500
[2640] -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600
[2653] -4500 -4600 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4300
[2666] -4200 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4900 -4800
[2679] -4900 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500
[2692] -4400 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4100 -4000 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4400
[2705] -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4100
[2718] -4200 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400
[2731] -4300 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300
[2744] -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800
[2757] -4700 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4900 -4800 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700
[2770] -4600 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5000
[2783] -4900 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300
[2796] -5400 -5500 -5600 -5500 -5600 -5700 -5800 -5700 -5800 -5700 -5800 -5700 -5800
[2809] -5700 -5600 -5700 -5600 -5500 -5600 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5500
[2822] -5600 -5500 -5400 -5500 -5600 -5500 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5600
[2835] -5700 -5800 -5700 -5600 -5500 -5400 -5500 -5600 -5700 -5800 -5900 -6000 -5900
[2848] -6000 -6100 -6200 -6100 -6000 -6100 -6200 -6300 -6400 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6400
[2861] -6500 -6600 -6700 -6600 -6700 -6600 -6500 -6600 -6700 -6800 -6700 -6800 -6900
[2874] -7000 -7100 -7200 -7300 -7200 -7100 -7000 -7100 -7000 -6900 -7000 -6900 -7000
[2887] -6900 -7000 -6900 -7000 -6900 -7000 -7100 -7000 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6800 -6700
[2900] -6800 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6600 -6500 -6400 -6500 -6600 -6500 -6600 -6500 -6600
[2913] -6500 -6400 -6300 -6200 -6100 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6400 -6500 -6600 -6700
[2926] -6600 -6500 -6600 -6700 -6800 -6900 -6800 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6800 -6700 -6600
[2939] -6500 -6400 -6500 -6400 -6500 -6400 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6100
[2952] -6000 -6100 -6000 -6100 -6000 -5900 -6000 -5900 -6000 -5900 -5800 -5900 -5800
[2965] -5900 -5800 -5700 -5800 -5900 -6000 -5900 -5800 -5900 -5800 -5900 -6000 -5900
[2978] -6000 -6100 -6000 -6100 -6000 -6100 -6200 -6300 -6400 -6500 -6600 -6700 -6600
[2991] -6500 -6400 -6500 -6600 -6700 -6800 -6900 -7000 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6800 -6700
[3004] -6800 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6600 -6700 -6800 -6900 -7000 -6900 -7000 -6900 -6800
[3017] -6900 -6800 -6700 -6600 -6700 -6800 -6900 -7000 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6600 -6700
[3030] -6600 -6500 -6600 -6500 -6400 -6500 -6400 -6500 -6600 -6500 -6400 -6500 -6600
[3043] -6700 -6800 -6700 -6600 -6700 -6800 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6600 -6500 -6600 -6500
[3056] -6400 -6500 -6400 -6300 -6200 -6100 -6000 -6100 -6200 -6300 -6400 -6300 -6200
[3069] -6300 -6400 -6300 -6200 -6100 -6000 -6100 -6000 -6100 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6100
[3082] -6000 -5900 -5800 -5700 -5800 -5700 -5600 -5500 -5400 -5500 -5600 -5700 -5600
[3095] -5500 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4900 -5000 -5100
[3108] -5200 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5600 -5500 -5600
[3121] -5700 -5600 -5500 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300
[3134] -5400 -5500 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5000 -4900 -5000
[3147] -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5100
[3160] -5200 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5200
[3173] -5300 -5200 -5100 -5000 -5100 -5000 -5100 -5000 -5100 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5100
[3186] -5000 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5500 -5600 -5700 -5600 -5500 -5400
[3199] -5500 -5600 -5500 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300
[3212] -5200 -5100 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4900 -4800 -4900 -5000 -4900 -5000 -4900 -4800
[3225] -4900 -5000 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100
[3238] -5000 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5000
[3251] -5100 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5300
[3264] -5400 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5200
[3277] -5300 -5200 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4900 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4900
[3290] -5000 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4900 -4800
[3303] -4700 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4700
[3316] -4600 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4400
[3329] -4300 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4500
[3342] -4600 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400
[3355] -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4900 -5000 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300
[3368] -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5600 -5700 -5600 -5500 -5600 -5500 -5400
[3381] -5500 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5500
[3394] -5600 -5700 -5600 -5700 -5600 -5700 -5800 -5700 -5800 -5900 -6000 -5900 -5800
[3407] -5900 -5800 -5900 -6000 -6100 -6200 -6100 -6000 -5900 -6000 -5900 -6000 -6100
[3420] -6000 -5900 -6000 -6100 -6200 -6100 -6000 -6100 -6200 -6100 -6200 -6100 -6000
[3433] -6100 -6000 -6100 -6200 -6100 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6100 -6000 -6100
[3446] -6000 -5900 -5800 -5700 -5800 -5900 -5800 -5900 -5800 -5900 -5800 -5900 -5800
[3459] -5900 -5800 -5700 -5800 -5700 -5600 -5700 -5600 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5100
[3472] -5200 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5500 -5600 -5700 -5800
[3485] -5700 -5800 -5900 -6000 -5900 -5800 -5700 -5800 -5700 -5600 -5500 -5400 -5300
[3498] -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5200
[3511] -5100 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4900 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5000 -5100
[3524] -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4900 -5000 -4900 -5000 -4900 -4800
[3537] -4700 -4600 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300
[3550] -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4600
[3563] -4500 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300
[3576] -4400 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4400
[3589] -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700
[3602] -4600 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400
[3615] -4500 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300
[3628] -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4100 -4000 -4100 -4200
[3641] -4300 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4700
[3654] -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4100 -4200
[3667] -4100 -4000 -4100 -4000 -4100 -4000 -3900 -3800 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4000 -3900
[3680] -3800 -3700 -3600 -3700 -3800 -3700 -3800 -3700 -3800 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4000
[3693] -4100 -4000 -3900 -4000 -3900 -3800 -3900 -3800 -3700 -3800 -3700 -3800 -3900
[3706] -4000 -3900 -4000 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4000 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4000 -4100 -4000
[3719] -3900 -4000 -4100 -4000 -3900 -4000 -3900 -3800 -3700 -3800 -3900 -4000 -3900
[3732] -4000 -4100 -4000 -4100 -4000 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4000 -3900 -3800 -3700 -3600
[3745] -3700 -3600 -3500 -3600 -3500 -3400 -3300 -3400 -3300 -3400 -3300 -3200 -3100
[3758] -3000 -2900 -3000 -3100 -3000 -3100 -3000 -3100 -3000 -2900 -3000 -2900 -2800
[3771] -2700 -2800 -2900 -3000 -2900 -3000 -3100 -3000 -2900 -3000 -2900 -3000 -3100
[3784] -3200 -3100 -3200 -3100 -3200 -3300 -3400 -3300 -3400 -3500 -3400 -3500 -3400
[3797] -3300 -3200 -3100 -3000 -3100 -3000 -2900 -2800 -2700 -2800 -2700 -2600 -2500
[3810] -2600 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2600 -2500 -2400 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2100 -2200
[3823] -2100 -2200 -2300 -2400 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2400 -2300 -2200 -2300
[3836] -2400 -2500 -2400 -2300 -2200 -2100 -2000 -2100 -2200 -2100 -2000 -2100 -2200
[3849] -2100 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1700 -1800 -1700 -1800 -1900 -1800 -1700 -1800 -1900
[3862] -2000 -2100 -2200 -2100 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2400 -2500 -2600 -2700 -2800
[3875] -2700 -2600 -2700 -2600 -2700 -2800 -2700 -2800 -2900 -3000 -2900 -3000 -2900
[3888] -3000 -2900 -2800 -2900 -2800 -2900 -2800 -2900 -2800 -2700 -2800 -2900 -3000
[3901] -3100 -3000 -2900 -3000 -3100 -3000 -3100 -3200 -3300 -3400 -3300 -3400 -3500
[3914] -3400 -3500 -3400 -3500 -3600 -3500 -3400 -3500 -3600 -3700 -3600 -3500 -3600
[3927] -3700 -3600 -3500 -3400 -3500 -3600 -3700 -3800 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4000 -4100
[3940] -4200 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400
[3953] -4500 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4900 -4800 -4900 -5000 -4900 -5000 -4900
[3966] -4800 -4700 -4800 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4900 -4800
[3979] -4700 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4500
[3992] -4400 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400
[4005] -4300 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4500
[4018] -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4900 -5000 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5000 -4900 -5000
[4031] -4900 -5000 -5100 -5000 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5000 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5100
[4044] -5000 -5100 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5600 -5500 -5600
[4057] -5700 -5800 -5700 -5800 -5900 -6000 -5900 -6000 -6100 -6200 -6300 -6400 -6500
[4070] -6400 -6500 -6400 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6100 -6200 -6100 -6200 -6300 -6400
[4083] -6500 -6400 -6300 -6200 -6100 -6200 -6300 -6400 -6500 -6600 -6500 -6600 -6500
[4096] -6400 -6500 -6600 -6700 -6600 -6500 -6400 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6200
[4109] -6100 -6200 -6300 -6400 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6400 -6500 -6400 -6500
[4122] -6600 -6500 -6400 -6300 -6400 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6400 -6300 -6200 -6100 -6200
[4135] -6100 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6100 -6200 -6100 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6300
[4148] -6400 -6300 -6400 -6500 -6400 -6500 -6400 -6500 -6600 -6700 -6800 -6900 -6800
[4161] -6700 -6800 -6700 -6800 -6700 -6800 -6900 -7000 -6900 -7000 -7100 -7200 -7100
[4174] -7000 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6800 -6900 -7000 -7100 -7000 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6800
[4187] -6900 -7000 -7100 -7000 -6900 -7000 -7100 -7000 -6900 -7000 -6900 -6800 -6900
[4200] -7000 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6800 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6800 -6700 -6600 -6700 -6600
[4213] -6500 -6600 -6500 -6600 -6500 -6400 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6400 -6500 -6400 -6500
[4226] -6600 -6700
you would be down $-6700 by the end of betting bullish since 1999 at the open of every day
if you bet on the contrary
> 100*-(cumsum(eurobinary))
[1] 100 200 300 200 300 400 300 200 300 400 300 400 300 200 300
[16] 200 300 400 500 600 500 400 500 600 500 400 300 400 500 600
[31] 500 600 700 800 900 1000 900 1000 1100 1000 1100 1200 1100 1000 1100
[46] 1000 1100 1000 1100 1200 1100 1200 1300 1400 1300 1200 1300 1400 1500 1400
[61] 1300 1400 1500 1600 1500 1600 1500 1600 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900
[76] 2000 2100 2000 2100 2000 2100 2200 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1800
[91] 1900 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2400 2500
[106] 2600 2700 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 2500 2400 2500 2400 2300 2400 2500 2600
[121] 2500 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2700 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000 2900 2800 2700
[136] 2800 2900 2800 2700 2800 2900 2800 2900 2800 2700 2800 2900 2800 2700 2600
[151] 2700 2800 2700 2800 2900 3000 3100 3200 3300 3200 3100 3200 3300 3400 3500
[166] 3400 3500 3400 3300 3200 3300 3400 3300 3400 3500 3600 3500 3600 3500 3600
[181] 3500 3400 3300 3400 3300 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 3100 3200 3100 3000 3100
[196] 3000 2900 2800 2700 2800 2900 3000 2900 3000 3100 3200 3300 3400 3500 3600
[211] 3500 3600 3700 3800 3900 3800 3700 3800 3900 4000 3900 4000 3900 3800 3900
[226] 4000 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000
[241] 4900 5000 5100 5000 5100 5000 5100 5000 5100 5200 5300 5200 5100 5000 4900
[256] 5000 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5600 5500 5600 5700 5600 5700 5800
[271] 5900 6000 6100 6000 5900 6000 5900 5800 5700 5800 5900 6000 5900 5800 5700
[286] 5800 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6200 6100 6200 6300 6400 6500 6400 6300 6400
[301] 6500 6600 6500 6400 6500 6400 6500 6600 6500 6400 6500 6600 6700 6600 6700
[316] 6800 6700 6600 6700 6600 6700 6600 6700 6800 6700 6800 6900 7000 6900 6800
[331] 6700 6800 6900 7000 6900 6800 6900 7000 6900 6800 6900 6800 6700 6800 6700
[346] 6600 6700 6800 6700 6800 6700 6800 6700 6800 6700 6600 6500 6600 6500 6400
[361] 6300 6200 6300 6400 6300 6200 6300 6400 6300 6400 6500 6600 6700 6800 6700
[376] 6600 6700 6600 6500 6600 6500 6600 6700 6600 6700 6800 6900 6800 6900 7000
[391] 7100 7000 6900 7000 6900 6800 6900 7000 6900 7000 7100 7200 7100 7000 7100
[406] 7200 7100 7200 7300 7200 7100 7000 7100 7200 7300 7200 7100 7200 7300 7400
[421] 7500 7600 7500 7600 7700 7600 7700 7800 7900 7800 7900 8000 8100 8200 8300
[436] 8200 8100 8200 8100 8200 8100 8000 8100 8200 8300 8400 8500 8400 8300 8400
[451] 8500 8600 8500 8600 8500 8600 8700 8800 8900 8800 8700 8600 8500 8400 8300
[466] 8200 8300 8400 8500 8400 8300 8400 8500 8600 8700 8800 8900 9000 9100 9200
[481] 9100 9000 8900 8800 8700 8600 8700 8600 8500 8600 8700 8600 8700 8600 8500
[496] 8600 8700 8600 8500 8400 8300 8200 8300 8200 8100 8000 8100 8000 8100 8200
[511] 8300 8200 8300 8400 8500 8400 8500 8400 8300 8400 8500 8600 8700 8600 8500
[526] 8400 8500 8400 8500 8400 8500 8400 8300 8400 8500 8600 8500 8600 8700 8800
[541] 8700 8800 8700 8600 8500 8400 8500 8400 8500 8400 8300 8400 8500 8600 8700
[556] 8800 8700 8600 8700 8800 8700 8600 8700 8800 8900 9000 8900 8800 8700 8800
[571] 8700 8600 8700 8800 8700 8800 8900 9000 8900 8800 8700 8800 8900 8800 8700
[586] 8800 8900 8800 8900 9000 8900 9000 9100 9200 9300 9400 9500 9400 9300 9400
[601] 9500 9600 9700 9800 9900 9800 9900 9800 9900 10000 10100 10000 10100 10000 10100
[616] 10200 10100 10000 9900 9800 9900 10000 10100 10000 9900 9800 9700 9800 9900 9800
[631] 9900 9800 9900 9800 9700 9600 9500 9600 9700 9600 9700 9600 9700 9600 9700
[646] 9600 9500 9600 9700 9600 9500 9400 9300 9200 9300 9400 9300 9200 9100 9000
[661] 8900 8800 8700 8600 8700 8800 8700 8800 8900 9000 8900 9000 8900 9000 9100
[676] 9000 8900 8800 8900 8800 8700 8600 8700 8600 8500 8600 8700 8600 8500 8400
[691] 8500 8600 8500 8600 8500 8600 8500 8600 8700 8800 8700 8800 8700 8800 8900
[706] 9000 9100 9200 9100 9000 9100 9000 8900 9000 8900 9000 9100 9000 8900 9000
[721] 8900 9000 8900 9000 8900 9000 8900 9000 9100 9000 8900 8800 8700 8600 8700
[736] 8600 8700 8600 8700 8800 8700 8600 8500 8400 8500 8600 8700 8800 8900 9000
[751] 8900 8800 8900 8800 8700 8800 8900 9000 9100 9200 9100 9200 9100 9200 9300
[766] 9400 9300 9400 9500 9600 9700 9800 9700 9600 9700 9600 9500 9600 9500 9600
[781] 9500 9400 9500 9600 9700 9600 9500 9600 9500 9400 9500 9600 9700 9600 9700
[796] 9600 9700 9600 9500 9600 9500 9600 9500 9400 9300 9200 9300 9200 9300 9400
[811] 9500 9600 9700 9800 9700 9600 9700 9600 9700 9600 9700 9600 9500 9400 9500
[826] 9400 9300 9200 9100 9200 9300 9200 9100 9000 8900 8800 8900 8800 8900 8800
[841] 8700 8800 8900 8800 8700 8800 8900 8800 8700 8600 8500 8600 8500 8600 8700
[856] 8600 8500 8400 8500 8400 8300 8400 8300 8400 8500 8600 8500 8600 8500 8600
[871] 8500 8400 8300 8200 8100 8200 8100 8000 8100 8000 8100 8200 8300 8200 8100
[886] 8200 8100 8200 8100 8000 8100 8200 8100 8200 8300 8200 8100 8200 8300 8200
[901] 8300 8200 8100 8200 8300 8200 8300 8200 8100 8000 7900 8000 7900 8000 7900
[916] 7800 7900 7800 7700 7600 7500 7400 7500 7400 7500 7600 7700 7800 7900 8000
[931] 7900 8000 8100 8200 8100 8000 7900 8000 8100 8200 8300 8200 8100 8200 8300
[946] 8200 8300 8400 8500 8400 8500 8600 8700 8600 8700 8800 8700 8600 8700 8800
[961] 8700 8600 8500 8600 8500 8400 8500 8400 8500 8400 8300 8400 8500 8600 8500
[976] 8400 8300 8400 8500 8600 8700 8800 8900 8800 8900 8800 8700 8800 8700 8600
[991] 8700 8600 8500 8400 8500 8400 8500 8600 8500 8600 8500 8400 8300 8200 8100
[1006] 8200 8100 8000 8100 8000 7900 7800 7900 7800 7700 7800 7700 7600 7500 7400
[1021] 7300 7200 7300 7200 7300 7400 7300 7200 7300 7400 7500 7600 7500 7600 7500
[1036] 7600 7700 7600 7500 7600 7700 7800 7700 7800 7700 7600 7500 7400 7300 7200
[1051] 7100 7200 7300 7400 7500 7600 7500 7600 7500 7600 7500 7400 7300 7200 7100
[1066] 7000 6900 7000 7100 7200 7300 7200 7100 7000 7100 7000 6900 6800 6700 6800
[1081] 6900 6800 6900 6800 6700 6800 6700 6600 6500 6600 6500 6400 6500 6400 6300
[1096] 6200 6300 6400 6500 6400 6300 6400 6300 6400 6300 6200 6300 6200 6300 6400
[1111] 6500 6400 6300 6400 6300 6400 6300 6200 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300 6400 6500
[1126] 6600 6500 6600 6700 6600 6500 6600 6700 6800 6900 6800 6700 6800 6900 7000
[1141] 7100 7200 7100 7000 7100 7000 7100 7000 7100 7200 7300 7400 7300 7200 7100
[1156] 7000 6900 7000 6900 7000 6900 7000 6900 7000 7100 7200 7300 7400 7300 7200
[1171] 7100 7200 7100 7200 7300 7200 7100 7000 6900 6800 6900 6800 6900 7000 6900
[1186] 6800 6700 6600 6500 6600 6500 6600 6500 6400 6300 6200 6300 6200 6100 6000
[1201] 6100 6000 6100 6200 6100 6200 6100 6000 5900 6000 5900 6000 6100 6200 6100
[1216] 6200 6300 6200 6300 6400 6300 6200 6100 6000 5900 5800 5700 5600 5700 5600
[1231] 5700 5600 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400 5300 5200 5100 5200 5300 5200 5100
[1246] 5000 4900 5000 4900 4800 4900 4800 4900 4800 4700 4600 4700 4600 4500 4600
[1261] 4500 4400 4500 4600 4700 4800 4900 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4900
[1276] 4800 4900 4800 4900 4800 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4900 5000
[1291] 4900 4800 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5300 5200 5300 5200 5300 5200 5300
[1306] 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5300 5200 5100 5200
[1321] 5300 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5200 5300 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5500
[1336] 5400 5300 5400 5300 5200 5300 5200 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400
[1351] 5300 5400 5300 5400 5300 5400 5300 5400 5300 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300
[1366] 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400 5300 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400
[1381] 5500 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400 5300 5400 5300 5400 5300 5400 5500
[1396] 5600 5500 5600 5500 5600 5700 5600 5700 5600 5500 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400
[1411] 5500 5400 5300 5400 5500 5600 5500 5600 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6000 5900
[1426] 6000 6100 6200 6100 6000 5900 5800 5900 5800 5900 5800 5700 5800 5700 5800
[1441] 5700 5800 5700 5800 5700 5600 5700 5800 5700 5800 5900 5800 5900 6000 5900
[1456] 5800 5700 5800 5700 5800 5700 5600 5700 5800 5700 5800 5900 6000 5900 5800
[1471] 5700 5800 5900 6000 5900 6000 5900 5800 5900 5800 5900 5800 5700 5600 5700
[1486] 5800 5700 5800 5700 5600 5500 5600 5500 5600 5500 5600 5500 5600 5500 5400
[1501] 5500 5400 5300 5200 5100 5200 5300 5200 5300 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 5700
[1516] 5600 5500 5600 5700 5800 5900 6000 5900 6000 6100 6000 6100 6000 5900 6000
[1531] 6100 6200 6300 6400 6300 6200 6100 6200 6100 6000 5900 5800 5900 5800 5900
[1546] 6000 6100 6000 6100 6200 6100 6000 6100 6000 5900 5800 5700 5800 5900 5800
[1561] 5900 6000 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300 6400 6300 6200 6100 6200 6300 6200 6100
[1576] 6000 5900 5800 5900 5800 5900 5800 5700 5800 5700 5600 5700 5800 5900 6000
[1591] 6100 6000 6100 6000 5900 6000 6100 6000 5900 6000 6100 6200 6300 6200 6100
[1606] 6200 6300 6200 6100 6000 6100 6000 6100 6200 6100 6200 6100 6000 5900 6000
[1621] 6100 6200 6100 6000 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300 6400 6300 6200 6300 6200 6300
[1636] 6400 6500 6400 6300 6200 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300 6200 6300 6200 6100 6200
[1651] 6300 6400 6300 6200 6100 6000 5900 5800 5700 5800 5700 5800 5900 5800 5900
[1666] 6000 6100 6200 6300 6400 6300 6400 6300 6200 6100 6200 6300 6200 6100 6000
[1681] 6100 6200 6300 6200 6300 6400 6300 6400 6500 6600 6500 6400 6500 6600 6700
[1696] 6800 6700 6600 6500 6600 6500 6400 6300 6400 6500 6400 6500 6400 6500 6600
[1711] 6500 6600 6700 6600 6500 6600 6500 6600 6700 6600 6500 6600 6700 6800 6900
[1726] 7000 7100 7200 7100 7200 7100 7000 7100 7000 6900 7000 6900 7000 6900 7000
[1741] 7100 7000 7100 7200 7100 7200 7100 7200 7100 7200 7100 7200 7300 7400 7300
[1756] 7400 7500 7400 7500 7600 7500 7400 7300 7200 7300 7400 7300 7400 7300 7400
[1771] 7300 7200 7300 7200 7100 7200 7300 7400 7500 7400 7500 7400 7500 7600 7500
[1786] 7600 7500 7600 7700 7800 7900 8000 7900 7800 7900 7800 7900 8000 7900 8000
[1801] 7900 7800 7900 8000 7900 7800 7900 7800 7700 7600 7500 7400 7500 7600 7500
[1816] 7600 7500 7600 7500 7600 7500 7400 7500 7400 7300 7400 7500 7600 7500 7600
[1831] 7700 7800 7700 7600 7500 7600 7500 7400 7300 7200 7100 7000 7100 7000 7100
[1846] 7000 6900 7000 6900 6800 6700 6600 6700 6800 6900 6800 6900 6800 6900 7000
[1861] 6900 7000 6900 7000 7100 7000 6900 7000 7100 7200 7300 7400 7500 7400 7500
[1876] 7400 7500 7600 7500 7600 7700 7600 7500 7600 7500 7400 7300 7400 7300 7200
[1891] 7300 7200 7300 7400 7500 7600 7700 7600 7500 7400 7500 7600 7500 7400 7300
[1906] 7200 7100 7000 7100 7000 7100 7200 7100 7200 7300 7400 7300 7200 7100 7200
[1921] 7100 7200 7300 7400 7300 7200 7300 7200 7300 7200 7300 7400 7500 7600 7500
[1936] 7600 7500 7400 7500 7400 7300 7200 7100 7000 7100 7200 7100 7200 7300 7200
[1951] 7300 7400 7500 7600 7700 7600 7700 7800 7700 7600 7700 7600 7500 7600 7500
[1966] 7400 7300 7200 7300 7200 7300 7200 7300 7200 7100 7200 7100 7000 7100 7000
[1981] 7100 7200 7100 7200 7100 7000 6900 6800 6700 6800 6700 6600 6500 6600 6700
[1996] 6800 6900 6800 6700 6800 6900 7000 7100 7000 7100 7200 7300 7200 7300 7200
[2011] 7100 7000 7100 7200 7300 7200 7300 7400 7500 7400 7500 7400 7500 7400 7500
[2026] 7400 7500 7400 7500 7400 7300 7200 7100 7200 7300 7200 7100 7000 7100 7200
[2041] 7100 7000 6900 7000 7100 7200 7100 7000 7100 7000 7100 7200 7100 7200 7100
[2056] 7000 7100 7200 7100 7000 6900 6800 6700 6800 6900 6800 6700 6800 6700 6600
[2071] 6700 6600 6500 6600 6700 6600 6500 6600 6700 6600 6700 6600 6500 6400 6300
[2086] 6200 6100 6200 6300 6200 6100 6200 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300 6200 6100 6200
[2101] 6100 6200 6100 6000 5900 6000 6100 6000 6100 6000 5900 6000 5900 5800 5900
[2116] 5800 5900 5800 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6200 6300 6200 6100 6000 5900 5800
[2131] 5900 5800 5700 5600 5700 5600 5500 5400 5500 5600 5500 5600 5500 5400 5300
[2146] 5200 5300 5400 5300 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5000 5100 5000
[2161] 4900 4800 4900 4800 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5300 5400 5300 5200 5100
[2176] 5000 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5300 5200 5100 5000 4900 5000
[2191] 5100 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4600 4500 4400 4500 4600 4700
[2206] 4600 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4600 4700 4600 4500 4600 4700 4600 4700 4600
[2221] 4500 4400 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300 4200 4100 4000 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100
[2236] 4000 3900 3800 3900 4000 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100 4200 4100 4200 4300 4200
[2251] 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4100 4000 4100
[2266] 4000 4100 4000 4100 4000 4100 4000 3900 3800 3900 4000 3900 4000 4100 4200
[2281] 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4000 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100 4000 3900 3800 3900
[2296] 3800 3700 3600 3700 3600 3500 3600 3500 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 2900 2800
[2311] 2900 2800 2900 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 2500 2600 2500 2600 2500 2400 2300
[2326] 2400 2300 2400 2300 2200 2100 2200 2300 2200 2300 2200 2100 2200 2100 2200
[2341] 2300 2200 2100 2200 2300 2400 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2600 2500 2600 2500
[2356] 2400 2300 2400 2500 2400 2300 2400 2300 2200 2300 2200 2300 2400 2500 2400
[2371] 2500 2600 2700 2600 2500 2600 2700 2600 2700 2800 2700 2600 2700 2800 2700
[2386] 2800 2700 2800 2700 2600 2700 2600 2500 2600 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200
[2401] 2100 2200 2100 2200 2100 2200 2300 2400 2300 2200 2300 2400 2300 2400 2300
[2416] 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000 3100 3200 3100 3000 3100 3000 3100 3000
[2431] 3100 3000 2900 3000 3100 3200 3300 3400 3500 3400 3500 3600 3500 3400 3500
[2446] 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 3100 3200 3300 3400 3500 3600 3700 3800 3900 3800
[2461] 3700 3800 3900 3800 3900 4000 3900 4000 4100 4200 4100 4200 4300 4200 4100
[2476] 4200 4300 4200 4100 4000 4100 4000 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600
[2491] 4500 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4400 4300
[2506] 4200 4100 4000 4100 4200 4100 4000 4100 4000 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100 4200
[2521] 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4700 4600 4500
[2536] 4600 4700 4600 4500 4600 4700 4600 4500 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4900 4800
[2551] 4700 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4900 5000 4900 5000 4900 5000 4900 4800 4700
[2566] 4600 4500 4600 4500 4400 4500 4400 4500 4400 4300 4400 4500 4400 4500 4400
[2581] 4500 4600 4700 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4900 4800 4900 5000 4900 4800 4700
[2596] 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4700 4600 4500 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4300 4400
[2611] 4500 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300 4200 4100 4000 4100 4200 4300
[2626] 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4400 4500 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4400
[2641] 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500
[2656] 4400 4500 4400 4300 4400 4500 4400 4500 4400 4300 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600
[2671] 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800 4900 4800 4900 4800 4700 4600 4700 4600 4500
[2686] 4600 4700 4600 4500 4600 4500 4400 4500 4400 4300 4200 4100 4000 4100 4200
[2701] 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4300
[2716] 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4300 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400
[2731] 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300 4400 4300
[2746] 4400 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4700 4800
[2761] 4900 4800 4900 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4600 4700 4600 4500
[2776] 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000 5100 5000 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5300 5200
[2791] 5300 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400 5500 5600 5500 5600 5700 5800 5700 5800 5700
[2806] 5800 5700 5800 5700 5600 5700 5600 5500 5600 5500 5400 5300 5400 5300 5400
[2821] 5500 5600 5500 5400 5500 5600 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400 5500 5600 5700
[2836] 5800 5700 5600 5500 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 5900 6000 5900 6000 6100 6200
[2851] 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300 6400 6300 6200 6300 6400 6500 6600 6700 6600 6700
[2866] 6600 6500 6600 6700 6800 6700 6800 6900 7000 7100 7200 7300 7200 7100 7000
[2881] 7100 7000 6900 7000 6900 7000 6900 7000 6900 7000 6900 7000 7100 7000 6900
[2896] 6800 6700 6800 6700 6800 6900 6800 6700 6600 6500 6400 6500 6600 6500 6600
[2911] 6500 6600 6500 6400 6300 6200 6100 6200 6300 6200 6300 6400 6500 6600 6700
[2926] 6600 6500 6600 6700 6800 6900 6800 6900 6800 6700 6800 6700 6600 6500 6400
[2941] 6500 6400 6500 6400 6300 6200 6300 6200 6300 6200 6100 6000 6100 6000 6100
[2956] 6000 5900 6000 5900 6000 5900 5800 5900 5800 5900 5800 5700 5800 5900 6000
[2971] 5900 5800 5900 5800 5900 6000 5900 6000 6100 6000 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300
[2986] 6400 6500 6600 6700 6600 6500 6400 6500 6600 6700 6800 6900 7000 6900 6800
[3001] 6700 6800 6700 6800 6900 6800 6700 6600 6700 6800 6900 7000 6900 7000 6900
[3016] 6800 6900 6800 6700 6600 6700 6800 6900 7000 6900 6800 6700 6600 6700 6600
[3031] 6500 6600 6500 6400 6500 6400 6500 6600 6500 6400 6500 6600 6700 6800 6700
[3046] 6600 6700 6800 6900 6800 6700 6600 6500 6600 6500 6400 6500 6400 6300 6200
[3061] 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300 6400 6300 6200 6300 6400 6300 6200 6100 6000 6100
[3076] 6000 6100 6200 6300 6200 6100 6000 5900 5800 5700 5800 5700 5600 5500 5400
[3091] 5500 5600 5700 5600 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5200 5100 5000 4900 4800 4900
[3106] 5000 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5400 5300 5400 5300 5400 5500 5600 5500 5600
[3121] 5700 5600 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400 5500
[3136] 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400 5300 5200 5100 5000 4900 5000 5100 5200 5100 5200
[3151] 5300 5400 5300 5200 5300 5400 5300 5200 5100 5200 5300 5200 5300 5400 5300
[3166] 5400 5300 5200 5300 5400 5300 5200 5300 5200 5100 5000 5100 5000 5100 5000
[3181] 5100 5000 5100 5200 5100 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5500 5600 5700
[3196] 5600 5500 5400 5500 5600 5500 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5200 5300 5400
[3211] 5300 5200 5100 5000 4900 4800 4900 4800 4900 5000 4900 5000 4900 4800 4900
[3226] 5000 4900 5000 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5000 5100 5200
[3241] 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5400 5300 5200 5100 5000 5100 5000 5100 5200 5300
[3256] 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400 5300 5400 5300 5400 5300 5400 5300 5200
[3271] 5100 5200 5300 5400 5300 5200 5300 5200 5300 5200 5100 5000 4900 4800 4900
[3286] 5000 4900 4800 4900 5000 4900 5000 5100 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4700 4800
[3301] 4900 4800 4700 4600 4700 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4700
[3316] 4600 4700 4600 4700 4800 4700 4600 4500 4600 4700 4600 4500 4400 4300 4400
[3331] 4500 4400 4500 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4700 4600 4500 4600 4700 4600 4700
[3346] 4600 4500 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000
[3361] 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5300 5200 5300 5400 5300 5400 5500 5600 5700
[3376] 5600 5500 5600 5500 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5200 5300 5200 5100 5200
[3391] 5300 5400 5500 5600 5700 5600 5700 5600 5700 5800 5700 5800 5900 6000 5900
[3406] 5800 5900 5800 5900 6000 6100 6200 6100 6000 5900 6000 5900 6000 6100 6000
[3421] 5900 6000 6100 6200 6100 6000 6100 6200 6100 6200 6100 6000 6100 6000 6100
[3436] 6200 6100 6200 6300 6200 6300 6200 6100 6000 6100 6000 5900 5800 5700 5800
[3451] 5900 5800 5900 5800 5900 5800 5900 5800 5900 5800 5700 5800 5700 5600 5700
[3466] 5600 5500 5400 5300 5200 5100 5200 5300 5200 5300 5400 5300 5400 5500 5400
[3481] 5500 5600 5700 5800 5700 5800 5900 6000 5900 5800 5700 5800 5700 5600 5500
[3496] 5400 5300 5400 5500 5400 5300 5200 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5300 5200
[3511] 5100 5000 4900 4800 4900 5000 4900 4800 4900 5000 5100 5000 5100 5200 5100
[3526] 5200 5100 5000 4900 4800 4900 5000 4900 5000 4900 4800 4700 4600 4500 4400
[3541] 4300 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4300 4400 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300 4200 4300
[3556] 4400 4500 4400 4500 4400 4500 4600 4500 4400 4500 4400 4500 4400 4300 4400
[3571] 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500
[3586] 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4400 4500 4400 4500 4600 4700 4800
[3601] 4700 4600 4500 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500
[3616] 4400 4500 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4300 4200
[3631] 4300 4400 4300 4200 4300 4200 4100 4000 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500
[3646] 4600 4500 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4700 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4700 4600
[3661] 4500 4400 4300 4200 4100 4200 4100 4000 4100 4000 4100 4000 3900 3800 3900
[3676] 4000 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 3700 3800 3700 3800 3700 3800 3900 4000
[3691] 4100 4000 4100 4000 3900 4000 3900 3800 3900 3800 3700 3800 3700 3800 3900
[3706] 4000 3900 4000 3900 4000 4100 4000 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100 4000 3900 4000
[3721] 4100 4000 3900 4000 3900 3800 3700 3800 3900 4000 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100
[3736] 4000 4100 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 3700 3600 3500 3600 3500 3400
[3751] 3300 3400 3300 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 2900 3000 3100 3000 3100 3000 3100
[3766] 3000 2900 3000 2900 2800 2700 2800 2900 3000 2900 3000 3100 3000 2900 3000
[3781] 2900 3000 3100 3200 3100 3200 3100 3200 3300 3400 3300 3400 3500 3400 3500
[3796] 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 3100 3000 2900 2800 2700 2800 2700 2600 2500 2600
[3811] 2500 2400 2500 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 2300 2200 2100 2200 2100 2200 2300
[3826] 2400 2500 2400 2500 2400 2500 2400 2300 2200 2300 2400 2500 2400 2300 2200
[3841] 2100 2000 2100 2200 2100 2000 2100 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1800 1700
[3856] 1800 1900 1800 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2100 2200 2300 2200 2300 2400
[3871] 2500 2600 2700 2800 2700 2600 2700 2600 2700 2800 2700 2800 2900 3000 2900
[3886] 3000 2900 3000 2900 2800 2900 2800 2900 2800 2900 2800 2700 2800 2900 3000
[3901] 3100 3000 2900 3000 3100 3000 3100 3200 3300 3400 3300 3400 3500 3400 3500
[3916] 3400 3500 3600 3500 3400 3500 3600 3700 3600 3500 3600 3700 3600 3500 3400
[3931] 3500 3600 3700 3800 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300
[3946] 4400 4500 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 4600 4700 4800 4900 4800
[3961] 4900 5000 4900 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4900 4800 4700 4600 4700 4600 4700
[3976] 4800 4900 4800 4700 4600 4500 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4900 4800 4700 4600
[3991] 4500 4400 4500 4400 4300 4400 4500 4400 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300
[4006] 4400 4500 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600
[4021] 4700 4800 4900 5000 4900 5000 5100 5000 4900 5000 4900 5000 5100 5000 4900
[4036] 5000 5100 5000 4900 5000 5100 5200 5100 5000 5100 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400
[4051] 5300 5400 5500 5600 5500 5600 5700 5800 5700 5800 5900 6000 5900 6000 6100
[4066] 6200 6300 6400 6500 6400 6500 6400 6300 6200 6300 6200 6100 6200 6100 6200
[4081] 6300 6400 6500 6400 6300 6200 6100 6200 6300 6400 6500 6600 6500 6600 6500
[4096] 6400 6500 6600 6700 6600 6500 6400 6300 6200 6300 6200 6300 6200 6100 6200
[4111] 6300 6400 6300 6200 6300 6200 6300 6400 6500 6400 6500 6600 6500 6400 6300
[4126] 6400 6300 6200 6300 6400 6300 6200 6100 6200 6100 6200 6300 6200 6100 6200
[4141] 6100 6200 6300 6200 6300 6200 6300 6400 6300 6400 6500 6400 6500 6400 6500
[4156] 6600 6700 6800 6900 6800 6700 6800 6700 6800 6700 6800 6900 7000 6900 7000
[4171] 7100 7200 7100 7000 6900 6800 6700 6800 6900 7000 7100 7000 6900 6800 6700
[4186] 6800 6900 7000 7100 7000 6900 7000 7100 7000 6900 7000 6900 6800 6900 7000
[4201] 6900 6800 6700 6800 6900 6800 6700 6800 6700 6600 6700 6600 6500 6600 6500
[4216] 6600 6500 6400 6300 6200 6300 6400 6500 6400 6500 6600 6700
so you would be up 6600%, as your money would be $6,700 the flaw here is I am not accounting for Volatility, however it is possible to use Technical analysis, a simple gambling strategy, and Fundamental analysis to carve out an edge not just bet blindly on heads (+1) or blindly on tails (-1)......assuming the market is not random otherwise it's just gambling hence the topic of my thread.
before we begin carving out strategies ....is it luck or skill ? the first step towards determining that is the question of the topic.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Member | 358 Posts
In reply to the coin toss... if you ran the simulation 100 times, you will get 100 different outcomes as there is no influence on the results of the toss... it's either a 1 or a 0, heads or tails....
But if you were to influence the toss... by mechanical means, whereby the coin would be flipped from the same height, by the same flipping force, then the outcome of each result would more closely resemble each other. '
Price is influenced by outside forces... it is moved by deliberate, logical decisions, not a simply a coin toss. This is why I say that price, when used as data in these simulations is corrupt. It has already been influenced by driving forces outside of the simulation.
If you were to create a date set of price, based on the coin toss simulation, the data would then be valid. Heads could be tick up in price, tails, tick down. Then you have a clean set of data, one not influenced by an forces outside of the simulation.
-CJ-
But if you were to influence the toss... by mechanical means, whereby the coin would be flipped from the same height, by the same flipping force, then the outcome of each result would more closely resemble each other. '
Price is influenced by outside forces... it is moved by deliberate, logical decisions, not a simply a coin toss. This is why I say that price, when used as data in these simulations is corrupt. It has already been influenced by driving forces outside of the simulation.
If you were to create a date set of price, based on the coin toss simulation, the data would then be valid. Heads could be tick up in price, tails, tick down. Then you have a clean set of data, one not influenced by an forces outside of the simulation.
-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
- Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Member | 2,680 Posts
Similarly however with a random data we also see results that are not unlike the market data
if you were betting on the open price to close positive +1
100*cumulative sum of 4227 random points
> 100*(cumsum(randombinary))
[1] 100 200 300 400 500 400 300 400 300 400 300 400 300 400 500
[16] 600 700 800 900 800 900 1000 900 1000 900 800 900 800 900 1000
[31] 900 1000 900 800 700 800 900 1000 1100 1000 1100 1200 1100 1000 1100
[46] 1200 1100 1000 1100 1000 1100 1000 900 800 900 1000 1100 1000 1100 1000
[61] 900 800 900 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1100 1000 900 1000 900 800 900
[76] 1000 1100 1000 900 800 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 300 200
[91] 300 400 300 200 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 200 300 200 100
[106] 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 -100 0 100 0 100 200 100 0
[121] -100 -200 -100 0 -100 -200 -300 -200 -300 -200 -100 0 -100 -200 -100
[136] 0 100 0 100 200 100 200 300 400 500 400 500 400 500 600
[151] 500 400 500 400 500 600 700 800 700 600 700 800 700 800 700
[166] 600 500 400 500 600 700 600 700 600 700 800 900 800 900 800
[181] 900 800 900 800 900 1000 900 1000 900 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1100
[196] 1000 900 1000 900 1000 900 800 900 800 900 1000 900 1000 1100 1200
[211] 1300 1400 1500 1600 1500 1400 1500 1400 1300 1200 1300 1400 1300 1200 1100
[226] 1200 1100 1200 1300 1400 1300 1200 1300 1400 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1600
[241] 1700 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1400 1500 1400 1300 1400 1500
[256] 1600 1500 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800
[271] 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000 2100
[286] 2000 2100 2000 2100 2000 2100 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000
[301] 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900 2000 2100 2000 2100
[316] 2000 2100 2000 1900 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1300 1200
[331] 1300 1200 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1300 1400 1300
[346] 1400 1300 1400 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600
[361] 1700 1600 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900
[376] 800 900 1000 1100 1000 900 1000 1100 1000 900 1000 1100 1200 1100 1200
[391] 1300 1400 1300 1400 1500 1600 1500 1400 1300 1400 1500 1400 1500 1400 1500
[406] 1400 1500 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600
[421] 1700 1800 1900 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2200 2300 2400 2300 2400 2500
[436] 2600 2500 2600 2500 2600 2700 2800 2700 2800 2900 3000 2900 3000 3100 3000
[451] 3100 3000 3100 3000 2900 2800 2900 2800 2900 3000 2900 2800 2700 2800 2900
[466] 3000 2900 2800 2900 2800 2700 2800 2700 2600 2700 2600 2700 2600 2500 2400
[481] 2300 2400 2300 2400 2300 2200 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 2000 1900 1800 1700
[496] 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1500 1400 1500 1600 1700 1600
[511] 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 1000 900 1000 1100 1000 900 800 900
[526] 800 700 600 700 800 700 600 500 600 500 600 500 400 500 400
[541] 500 600 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1000 900 1000 1100 1000 1100
[556] 1000 1100 1200 1100 1200 1100 1200 1100 1000 1100 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400
[571] 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700
[586] 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600
[601] 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900 2000 2100 2000 2100 2200 2300
[616] 2200 2100 2000 2100 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600
[631] 2500 2400 2300 2400 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000 2900 3000 3100
[646] 3000 3100 3000 3100 3000 3100 3000 3100 3200 3300 3200 3100 3200 3300 3400
[661] 3300 3400 3300 3400 3500 3400 3500 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3500
[676] 3600 3500 3600 3500 3400 3500 3600 3500 3600 3700 3800 3900 4000 3900 4000
[691] 4100 4000 4100 4000 4100 4000 4100 4000 3900 3800 3900 3800 3700 3800 3900
[706] 4000 3900 4000 4100 4200 4100 4200 4300 4200 4100 4200 4300 4200 4100 4200
[721] 4300 4200 4100 4000 3900 4000 4100 4000 3900 3800 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100
[736] 4200 4100 4200 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 4600 4700 4600 4500 4400
[751] 4300 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4000 3900 4000 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500
[766] 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000
[781] 5100 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4900
[796] 4800 4700 4600 4500 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4900 4800 4900 5000 5100 5000
[811] 5100 5200 5100 5000 5100 5000 4900 5000 4900 5000 4900 5000 4900 4800 4700
[826] 4800 4900 5000 4900 5000 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5000 4900 5000 4900 5000
[841] 5100 5200 5100 5000 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300
[856] 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5200 5300 5200 5300 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200
[871] 5100 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4600 4500 4400 4500 4400 4300
[886] 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4700 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600
[901] 4700 4800 4900 5000 5100 5000 5100 5200 5100 5000 4900 5000 5100 5000 5100
[916] 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4700 4600 4500 4600 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800
[931] 4900 5000 5100 5000 4900 4800 4900 5000 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5200 5300
[946] 5400 5300 5200 5300 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5600
[961] 5500 5400 5300 5200 5100 5200 5100 5000 4900 4800 4900 4800 4700 4800 4700
[976] 4800 4900 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4900 5000 4900 4800 4900 5000 4900 4800
[991] 4700 4800 4700 4800 4700 4600 4500 4400 4500 4600 4700 4600 4700 4600 4700
[1006] 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4300 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300 4200
[1021] 4100 4000 4100 4200 4100 4000 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300
[1036] 4200 4300 4200 4100 4000 4100 4200 4300 4200 4100 4200 4300 4400 4300 4200
[1051] 4100 4000 4100 4200 4300 4200 4100 4200 4100 4000 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100
[1066] 4000 4100 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3800 3700 3800 3900 3800 3700 3800
[1081] 3700 3600 3500 3600 3500 3400 3500 3400 3500 3600 3500 3400 3500 3400 3300
[1096] 3400 3500 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3800 3900 3800 3700 3800 3700 3600
[1111] 3700 3600 3500 3400 3300 3400 3300 3200 3300 3400 3300 3400 3500 3400 3500
[1126] 3600 3700 3800 3700 3600 3500 3600 3500 3400 3300 3200 3300 3200 3300 3200
[1141] 3300 3400 3500 3400 3500 3400 3300 3400 3300 3200 3300 3200 3100 3200 3300
[1156] 3400 3500 3600 3500 3400 3500 3600 3700 3600 3500 3600 3700 3800 3700 3800
[1171] 3900 4000 3900 3800 3700 3800 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3500 3400 3300
[1186] 3400 3500 3400 3500 3600 3700 3800 3900 4000 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4000
[1201] 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4400 4300
[1216] 4200 4100 4200 4300 4200 4100 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3900 4000 4100 4200
[1231] 4300 4200 4300 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4400 4500 4600 4700
[1246] 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 4600 4700 4800
[1261] 4900 4800 4900 5000 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5200 5300 5200 5300 5200 5300
[1276] 5200 5100 5000 4900 5000 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5000 5100 5000
[1291] 4900 4800 4900 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800 4900 4800 4900 4800 4700 4600 4700
[1306] 4800 4900 4800 4900 4800 4900 5000 5100 5000 4900 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800
[1321] 4900 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800 4900
[1336] 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5300 5200 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400
[1351] 5300 5200 5300 5400 5300 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400 5500 5400 5300 5200 5300
[1366] 5400 5300 5200 5100 5200 5100 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4900 5000 4900 5000
[1381] 4900 5000 4900 5000 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5400 5300 5400 5300 5200 5100
[1396] 5200 5300 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5000 5100 5000 5100 5000 4900 4800
[1411] 4700 4600 4700 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4900 4800 4700
[1426] 4800 4700 4600 4700 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4400
[1441] 4300 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3800 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700
[1456] 3600 3700 3600 3500 3400 3500 3600 3500 3400 3300 3400 3500 3600 3700 3800
[1471] 3700 3800 3700 3800 3700 3600 3500 3400 3300 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 3100
[1486] 3000 3100 3000 3100 3200 3300 3400 3300 3400 3300 3400 3500 3400 3300 3200
[1501] 3300 3200 3100 3000 3100 3000 2900 3000 3100 3000 3100 3200 3300 3200 3300
[1516] 3200 3100 3000 2900 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 2300 2200 2100 2000
[1531] 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1800 1900 1800 1700 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600 1700
[1546] 1800 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1500 1400
[1561] 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000 2100
[1576] 2200 2300 2200 2300 2400 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2600 2700 2800 2700 2600
[1591] 2500 2400 2500 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 2800 2900 3000 2900 3000 3100
[1606] 3200 3300 3200 3300 3400 3500 3400 3300 3400 3500 3600 3500 3600 3500 3600
[1621] 3500 3400 3500 3400 3500 3600 3700 3600 3700 3800 3700 3800 3700 3600 3700
[1636] 3800 3700 3800 3900 4000 4100 4200 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4400
[1651] 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4700 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4300
[1666] 4200 4100 4000 3900 4000 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300 4200
[1681] 4300 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4400 4300 4400 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300
[1696] 4200 4100 4000 3900 4000 3900 4000 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200
[1711] 4100 4200 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4700 4800 4700
[1726] 4600 4700 4600 4500 4400 4500 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600
[1741] 4500 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4300 4200 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300
[1756] 4200 4300 4400 4500 4400 4300 4200 4300 4200 4100 4000 3900 4000 4100 4200
[1771] 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4000 3900 4000 3900 3800 3700 3800 3900
[1786] 3800 3900 3800 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300 4200
[1801] 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 4800 4900
[1816] 5000 4900 5000 5100 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4600 4700 4600
[1831] 4500 4600 4700 4600 4700 4600 4700 4800 4700 4600 4500 4600 4500 4400 4300
[1846] 4200 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4500 4400 4500 4600
[1861] 4500 4600 4500 4400 4300 4400 4500 4400 4500 4400 4300 4400 4300 4200 4300
[1876] 4200 4300 4400 4300 4200 4300 4200 4100 4000 4100 4200 4300 4400 4300 4200
[1891] 4300 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4400 4500 4400 4500 4400 4500
[1906] 4400 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3900 3800 3700 3600
[1921] 3500 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3800 3900 4000 3900 4000 3900
[1936] 3800 3900 4000 3900 3800 3900 3800 3700 3800 3700 3600 3700 3600 3500 3600
[1951] 3700 3600 3700 3800 3700 3800 3900 3800 3900 4000 3900 3800 3900 4000 4100
[1966] 4200 4100 4000 4100 4000 4100 4200 4100 4000 4100 4200 4100 4000 4100 4200
[1981] 4100 4000 3900 3800 3900 4000 3900 3800 3900 3800 3900 3800 3900 4000 3900
[1996] 4000 3900 4000 3900 4000 3900 3800 3900 3800 3900 3800 3700 3600 3700 3800
[2011] 3700 3800 3900 3800 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100 4000 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300
[2026] 4400 4500 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000 4900 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000
[2041] 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5200 5100 5000 5100 5200 5100 5000 5100 5200 5100
[2056] 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6000
[2071] 5900 5800 5700 5800 5900 5800 5900 6000 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300 6200 6100
[2086] 6200 6300 6400 6500 6600 6500 6600 6700 6800 6900 6800 6700 6800 6900 7000
[2101] 7100 7000 6900 7000 6900 7000 6900 7000 7100 7000 6900 6800 6700 6600 6500
[2116] 6400 6500 6600 6700 6600 6700 6600 6500 6400 6500 6400 6300 6200 6300 6400
[2131] 6500 6400 6500 6400 6500 6600 6500 6600 6700 6800 6900 7000 7100 7000 6900
[2146] 6800 6700 6800 6700 6800 6700 6600 6500 6600 6500 6400 6300 6400 6500 6600
[2161] 6700 6800 6700 6800 6900 7000 6900 7000 7100 7000 6900 7000 7100 7000 7100
[2176] 7000 7100 7200 7300 7400 7300 7400 7300 7200 7300 7400 7300 7400 7300 7200
[2191] 7300 7400 7500 7400 7300 7200 7300 7400 7300 7400 7500 7400 7500 7400 7300
[2206] 7200 7300 7400 7300 7200 7300 7400 7500 7400 7300 7400 7300 7400 7300 7400
[2221] 7500 7400 7300 7200 7300 7200 7300 7200 7100 7000 7100 7000 7100 7000 6900
[2236] 7000 7100 7200 7100 7000 7100 7000 6900 7000 7100 7000 7100 7200 7300 7400
[2251] 7500 7600 7500 7400 7500 7600 7700 7600 7500 7400 7300 7400 7300 7200 7100
[2266] 7000 7100 7200 7100 7000 6900 6800 6900 7000 7100 7200 7100 7000 7100 7000
[2281] 7100 7200 7100 7200 7300 7200 7100 7200 7100 7000 7100 7200 7100 7000 6900
[2296] 6800 6700 6800 6700 6600 6700 6800 6900 7000 6900 6800 6900 6800 6700 6800
[2311] 6900 7000 7100 7000 7100 7000 6900 7000 6900 6800 6900 7000 7100 7200 7100
[2326] 7000 7100 7200 7100 7000 6900 6800 6900 7000 7100 7000 6900 6800 6900 7000
[2341] 6900 6800 6900 6800 6700 6600 6700 6600 6500 6400 6500 6400 6500 6400 6300
[2356] 6400 6500 6400 6500 6400 6500 6600 6500 6400 6300 6400 6500 6400 6300 6200
[2371] 6100 6000 6100 6000 5900 5800 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300
[2386] 6400 6300 6200 6100 6000 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300 6200 6100 6000 6100 6000
[2401] 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300 6200 6100 6200 6100 6000 5900 6000 5900 5800 5900
[2416] 5800 5700 5800 5900 6000 5900 5800 5900 5800 5700 5600 5500 5400 5300 5400
[2431] 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400 5300 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400 5500 5400 5500
[2446] 5400 5300 5400 5300 5200 5300 5400 5300 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400
[2461] 5300 5400 5300 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5200 5100
[2476] 5200 5300 5200 5300 5200 5100 5000 4900 4800 4900 4800 4700 4600 4500 4600
[2491] 4500 4400 4300 4400 4300 4200 4100 4000 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100
[2506] 4000 4100 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3800 3900 4000
[2521] 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3500 3400 3300
[2536] 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 3100 3200 3300 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 2900 3000
[2551] 3100 3000 3100 3000 2900 2800 2700 2800 2900 3000 2900 3000 3100 3200 3300
[2566] 3400 3300 3400 3500 3600 3700 3800 3900 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 3500 3600
[2581] 3700 3600 3500 3400 3500 3400 3300 3200 3300 3400 3300 3400 3300 3200 3100
[2596] 3000 2900 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 2500 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 2300 2400
[2611] 2300 2400 2500 2400 2300 2200 2300 2400 2300 2400 2500 2600 2500 2400 2300
[2626] 2400 2300 2400 2500 2400 2300 2200 2300 2200 2300 2200 2300 2200 2100 2200
[2641] 2100 2200 2100 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300
[2656] 2200 2100 2200 2300 2200 2100 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600
[2671] 1500 1400 1300 1400 1300 1400 1500 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1500 1400 1500
[2686] 1600 1700 1800 1700 1800 1700 1600 1700 1800 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800
[2701] 1700 1800 1700 1800 1900 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
[2716] 2200 2300 2400 2300 2400 2300 2400 2300 2400 2500 2400 2500 2600 2700 2600
[2731] 2500 2600 2700 2600 2500 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 2800 2700 2600 2700
[2746] 2800 2700 2600 2700 2600 2500 2600 2700 2600 2700 2600 2500 2600 2500 2400
[2761] 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 2800 2900 2800 2900 2800 2700 2800 2700 2600 2500
[2776] 2400 2500 2400 2500 2600 2700 2600 2500 2600 2500 2600 2700 2800 2700 2600
[2791] 2700 2600 2700 2600 2500 2600 2500 2400 2500 2400 2300 2400 2300 2400 2300
[2806] 2200 2100 2200 2100 2000 1900 2000 2100 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600
[2821] 1500 1600 1700 1600 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700
[2836] 1800 1700 1800 1700 1800 1900 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000 2100 2000
[2851] 2100 2200 2300 2200 2300 2200 2100 2200 2300 2200 2300 2200 2100 2200 2300
[2866] 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 2500 2600 2500 2400 2500 2400
[2881] 2300 2200 2300 2400 2300 2200 2100 2200 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 2000 2100
[2896] 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1600 1500 1600 1500 1600
[2911] 1700 1800 1700 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800 1900 1800 1700 1800 1700
[2926] 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600 1700 1600 1700 1800 1900 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800
[2941] 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900
[2956] 2000 1900 1800 1700 1800 1900 1800 1900 1800 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200
[2971] 2100 2000 2100 2000 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900 2000 2100 2000 1900 1800 1900
[2986] 2000 2100 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2400 2300 2200
[3001] 2100 2000 1900 2000 2100 2000 2100 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2300 2400 2300
[3016] 2400 2500 2400 2500 2600 2500 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 2800 2900 2800
[3031] 2700 2600 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300 2400 2500 2400 2500 2600 2700 2600 2500
[3046] 2600 2500 2400 2300 2400 2300 2200 2300 2200 2300 2400 2300 2400 2300 2200
[3061] 2300 2200 2100 2200 2100 2000 2100 2200 2100 2000 2100 2200 2300 2200 2100
[3076] 2200 2300 2400 2300 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2500 2400 2500 2600 2700 2600
[3091] 2700 2600 2500 2600 2500 2600 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000 3100 3000 2900
[3106] 3000 3100 3200 3100 3000 2900 3000 3100 3000 3100 3000 3100 3200 3100 3000
[3121] 2900 2800 2700 2600 2700 2600 2500 2400 2500 2400 2300 2200 2100 2200 2300
[3136] 2400 2300 2400 2500 2400 2300 2200 2300 2400 2300 2400 2300 2400 2300 2200
[3151] 2300 2400 2300 2400 2500 2400 2500 2400 2500 2600 2500 2600 2700 2800 2700
[3166] 2800 2900 3000 2900 3000 3100 3000 3100 3000 2900 2800 2700 2800 2900 3000
[3181] 2900 3000 3100 3000 3100 3000 3100 3000 2900 3000 3100 3000 2900 3000 2900
[3196] 3000 2900 3000 2900 2800 2900 3000 2900 3000 2900 3000 2900 3000 3100 3000
[3211] 3100 3200 3100 3000 3100 3200 3100 3000 2900 3000 2900 2800 2700 2600 2700
[3226] 2600 2500 2400 2300 2400 2500 2400 2500 2400 2300 2200 2300 2200 2300 2400
[3241] 2500 2600 2500 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 2300 2200 2300 2200 2300 2200 2300
[3256] 2200 2300 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 2100 2200 2100 2200 2300 2200 2300 2200
[3271] 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2400 2300 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 2100 2200 2300
[3286] 2400 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2600 2500 2400 2500 2600 2500 2400 2300 2400
[3301] 2300 2200 2300 2400 2500 2400 2500 2400 2500 2400 2500 2400 2300 2200 2100
[3316] 2000 1900 2000 2100 2000 2100 2000 1900 2000 2100 2000 1900 2000 2100 2000
[3331] 2100 2200 2100 2200 2300 2200 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2500 2600 2500
[3346] 2400 2300 2200 2100 2200 2100 2200 2100 2200 2300 2200 2100 2200 2100 2200
[3361] 2100 2000 1900 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1400 1500 1400 1500
[3376] 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 2000 2100 2200
[3391] 2100 2000 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700 1600 1500
[3406] 1400 1500 1400 1500 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1500 1400 1500 1600 1700 1600
[3421] 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700 1600 1700 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1500
[3436] 1400 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1200 1100 1200 1300 1400 1300 1200 1300 1400
[3451] 1300 1200 1300 1200 1100 1200 1300 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 900
[3466] 800 700 600 500 400 500 400 300 400 500 400 500 600 700 600
[3481] 500 600 500 600 500 400 500 600 500 600 700 800 700 800 900
[3496] 1000 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1700 1600
[3511] 1500 1600 1700 1600 1700 1800 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900
[3526] 2000 1900 2000 2100 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600
[3541] 1700 1800 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300
[3556] 1400 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 900 800 700 600 700 600
[3571] 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 0 100 0 100 0 100
[3586] 200 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 600 700 600 700 600 700 800
[3601] 900 1000 900 800 700 800 900 1000 900 800 900 800 700 800 900
[3616] 1000 1100 1200 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1400 1300 1200 1300 1200 1100 1200
[3631] 1300 1200 1300 1200 1300 1200 1300 1400 1300 1200 1300 1200 1300 1400 1500
[3646] 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1300 1200 1100 1200 1300 1200 1100 1000 1100 1200
[3661] 1100 1200 1300 1200 1300 1200 1300 1400 1300 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700
[3676] 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1300 1200 1100 1200 1300 1200 1300 1400 1300 1400
[3691] 1300 1200 1100 1000 1100 1200 1300 1200 1100 1000 1100 1000 1100 1200 1300
[3706] 1200 1300 1200 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 700 600 500 600
[3721] 700 800 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 300 200 100 200 100
[3736] 200 300 400 500 400 300 400 500 600 500 600 500 600 700 800
[3751] 700 800 900 1000 900 800 700 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100
[3766] 200 300 200 100 0 100 0 -100 0 -100 0 100 0 100 200
[3781] 100 200 300 400 300 400 300 200 300 400 500 600 500 400 300
[3796] 200 100 0 100 0 -100 0 -100 -200 -100 -200 -100 -200 -100 -200
[3811] -300 -400 -500 -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -500 -600 -500
[3826] -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 700 600
[3841] 700 600 700 600 500 400 500 600 500 600 700 600 700 600 700
[3856] 800 900 1000 900 800 700 600 500 600 500 400 300 400 300 400
[3871] 500 400 300 400 500 400 300 200 100 200 100 200 100 200 100
[3886] 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 700 800 700 800 900 800 700 600
[3901] 700 600 500 600 500 400 300 400 300 200 100 0 100 0 -100
[3916] -200 -100 -200 -300 -200 -100 -200 -100 0 -100 -200 -100 -200 -300 -400
[3931] -500 -600 -700 -800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -500 -600 -700 -600 -700 -600 -700
[3946] -600 -700 -800 -700 -600 -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -400 -500 -400 -500 -600
[3961] -500 -600 -700 -800 -700 -800 -700 -600 -700 -800 -900 -800 -900 -1000 -900
[3976] -800 -700 -600 -500 -600 -500 -600 -500 -600 -700 -800 -900 -800 -900 -1000
[3991] -1100 -1000 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1200 -1300 -1400 -1500 -1400 -1500 -1400 -1500
[4006] -1600 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1400
[4021] -1500 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1400 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1100 -1200 -1100
[4036] -1000 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1000 -900 -800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -500 -400 -500 -600
[4051] -700 -600 -700 -600 -700 -800 -700 -600 -700 -600 -500 -400 -500 -400 -300
[4066] -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -300 -200 -100 -200 -300 -400
[4081] -500 -400 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 200 300 400 500
[4096] 600 500 400 300 200 300 400 300 400 500 600 700 800 700 800
[4111] 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1200 1100 1000 1100 1000 1100 1000 900 1000 1100
[4126] 1000 1100 1200 1100 1200 1100 1200 1100 1200 1100 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400
[4141] 1500 1400 1500 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700
[4156] 1800 1700 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1600
[4171] 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700 1800 1700 1800 1700 1800 1700 1800 1900
[4186] 1800 1900 1800 1900 1800 1900 1800 1900 1800 1900 1800 1900 1800 1900 2000
[4201] 2100 2000 1900 2000 2100 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2200 2100
[4216] 2200 2100 2000 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2200 2300 2400 2300
so you would be up 2200% $2,300 dollars..... it is not true that you random means you must end up at square one, however gain or loss is pure luck 50% probability
now if you bet on the reverse
100*-(cumsum(randombinary))
[1] -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -500
[16] -600 -700 -800 -900 -800 -900 -1000 -900 -1000 -900 -800 -900 -800 -900 -1000
[31] -900 -1000 -900 -800 -700 -800 -900 -1000 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1000 -1100
[46] -1200 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1000 -900 -800 -900 -1000 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1000
[61] -900 -800 -900 -800 -900 -1000 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1000 -900 -1000 -900 -800 -900
[76] -1000 -1100 -1000 -900 -800 -900 -800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -300 -200
[91] -300 -400 -300 -200 -300 -200 -100 0 -100 -200 -300 -200 -300 -200 -100
[106] 0 -100 0 -100 0 -100 0 100 0 -100 0 -100 -200 -100 0
[121] 100 200 100 0 100 200 300 200 300 200 100 0 100 200 100
[136] 0 -100 0 -100 -200 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -400 -500 -400 -500 -600
[151] -500 -400 -500 -400 -500 -600 -700 -800 -700 -600 -700 -800 -700 -800 -700
[166] -600 -500 -400 -500 -600 -700 -600 -700 -600 -700 -800 -900 -800 -900 -800
[181] -900 -800 -900 -800 -900 -1000 -900 -1000 -900 -800 -900 -1000 -1100 -1200 -1100
[196] -1000 -900 -1000 -900 -1000 -900 -800 -900 -800 -900 -1000 -900 -1000 -1100 -1200
[211] -1300 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1500 -1400 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1300 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1100
[226] -1200 -1100 -1200 -1300 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1300 -1400 -1300 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1600
[241] -1700 -1800 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1400 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1400 -1500
[256] -1600 -1500 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1900 -2000 -1900 -1800
[271] -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1900 -2000 -1900 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1900 -2000 -2100
[286] -2000 -2100 -2000 -2100 -2000 -2100 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1900 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1900 -2000
[301] -1900 -2000 -1900 -2000 -1900 -2000 -1900 -2000 -1900 -2000 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2000 -2100
[316] -2000 -2100 -2000 -1900 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1300 -1200
[331] -1300 -1200 -1300 -1200 -1100 -1000 -900 -1000 -1100 -1200 -1300 -1400 -1300 -1400 -1300
[346] -1400 -1300 -1400 -1300 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600
[361] -1700 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1100 -1000 -900
[376] -800 -900 -1000 -1100 -1000 -900 -1000 -1100 -1000 -900 -1000 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1200
[391] -1300 -1400 -1300 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1400 -1500 -1400 -1500 -1400 -1500
[406] -1400 -1500 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1900 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1600
[421] -1700 -1800 -1900 -1800 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2400 -2300 -2400 -2500
[436] -2600 -2500 -2600 -2500 -2600 -2700 -2800 -2700 -2800 -2900 -3000 -2900 -3000 -3100 -3000
[451] -3100 -3000 -3100 -3000 -2900 -2800 -2900 -2800 -2900 -3000 -2900 -2800 -2700 -2800 -2900
[466] -3000 -2900 -2800 -2900 -2800 -2700 -2800 -2700 -2600 -2700 -2600 -2700 -2600 -2500 -2400
[481] -2300 -2400 -2300 -2400 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2100 -2000 -1900 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1700
[496] -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1500 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1600
[511] -1500 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1100 -1000 -900 -1000 -900 -1000 -1100 -1000 -900 -800 -900
[526] -800 -700 -600 -700 -800 -700 -600 -500 -600 -500 -600 -500 -400 -500 -400
[541] -500 -600 -500 -600 -700 -800 -900 -1000 -1100 -1000 -900 -1000 -1100 -1000 -1100
[556] -1000 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1200 -1300 -1400
[571] -1300 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1700
[586] -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600
[601] -1500 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1900 -2000 -1900 -2000 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2000 -2100 -2200 -2300
[616] -2200 -2100 -2000 -2100 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2200 -2300 -2400 -2500 -2600
[631] -2500 -2400 -2300 -2400 -2300 -2400 -2500 -2600 -2700 -2800 -2900 -3000 -2900 -3000 -3100
[646] -3000 -3100 -3000 -3100 -3000 -3100 -3000 -3100 -3200 -3300 -3200 -3100 -3200 -3300 -3400
[661] -3300 -3400 -3300 -3400 -3500 -3400 -3500 -3600 -3700 -3600 -3700 -3600 -3700 -3600 -3500
[676] -3600 -3500 -3600 -3500 -3400 -3500 -3600 -3500 -3600 -3700 -3800 -3900 -4000 -3900 -4000
[691] -4100 -4000 -4100 -4000 -4100 -4000 -4100 -4000 -3900 -3800 -3900 -3800 -3700 -3800 -3900
[706] -4000 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4100 -4200
[721] -4300 -4200 -4100 -4000 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4000 -3900 -3800 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4000 -4100
[736] -4200 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4400
[751] -4300 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4000 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4500
[766] -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4900 -5000
[781] -5100 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4900
[796] -4800 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4900 -4800 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5000
[811] -5100 -5200 -5100 -5000 -5100 -5000 -4900 -5000 -4900 -5000 -4900 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4700
[826] -4800 -4900 -5000 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5000 -4900 -5000 -4900 -5000
[841] -5100 -5200 -5100 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5300
[856] -5400 -5500 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200
[871] -5100 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4300
[886] -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600
[901] -4700 -4800 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5000 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5000 -5100
[916] -5000 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800
[931] -4900 -5000 -5100 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5200 -5300
[946] -5400 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5600
[961] -5500 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4700
[976] -4800 -4900 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4900 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4900 -5000 -4900 -4800
[991] -4700 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4700
[1006] -4600 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4200
[1021] -4100 -4000 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4000 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4000 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4300
[1036] -4200 -4300 -4200 -4100 -4000 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4200
[1051] -4100 -4000 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4000 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4000 -4100
[1066] -4000 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4000 -3900 -3800 -3700 -3800 -3700 -3800 -3900 -3800 -3700 -3800
[1081] -3700 -3600 -3500 -3600 -3500 -3400 -3500 -3400 -3500 -3600 -3500 -3400 -3500 -3400 -3300
[1096] -3400 -3500 -3600 -3700 -3600 -3700 -3600 -3700 -3800 -3900 -3800 -3700 -3800 -3700 -3600
[1111] -3700 -3600 -3500 -3400 -3300 -3400 -3300 -3200 -3300 -3400 -3300 -3400 -3500 -3400 -3500
[1126] -3600 -3700 -3800 -3700 -3600 -3500 -3600 -3500 -3400 -3300 -3200 -3300 -3200 -3300 -3200
[1141] -3300 -3400 -3500 -3400 -3500 -3400 -3300 -3400 -3300 -3200 -3300 -3200 -3100 -3200 -3300
[1156] -3400 -3500 -3600 -3500 -3400 -3500 -3600 -3700 -3600 -3500 -3600 -3700 -3800 -3700 -3800
[1171] -3900 -4000 -3900 -3800 -3700 -3800 -3700 -3600 -3700 -3600 -3700 -3600 -3500 -3400 -3300
[1186] -3400 -3500 -3400 -3500 -3600 -3700 -3800 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4000
[1201] -4100 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4400 -4300
[1216] -4200 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4000 -3900 -3800 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4200
[1231] -4300 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4700
[1246] -4600 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800
[1261] -4900 -4800 -4900 -5000 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5200 -5300
[1276] -5200 -5100 -5000 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5000 -5100 -5000
[1291] -4900 -4800 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4900 -4800 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4700
[1306] -4800 -4900 -4800 -4900 -4800 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5000 -4900 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4800
[1321] -4900 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4900
[1336] -5000 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5400
[1351] -5300 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5300
[1366] -5400 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4900 -5000 -4900 -5000
[1381] -4900 -5000 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5100
[1396] -5200 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5000 -5100 -5000 -5100 -5000 -4900 -4800
[1411] -4700 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4900 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4900 -4800 -4700
[1426] -4800 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4400
[1441] -4300 -4200 -4100 -4000 -3900 -3800 -3700 -3800 -3700 -3600 -3700 -3600 -3700 -3600 -3700
[1456] -3600 -3700 -3600 -3500 -3400 -3500 -3600 -3500 -3400 -3300 -3400 -3500 -3600 -3700 -3800
[1471] -3700 -3800 -3700 -3800 -3700 -3600 -3500 -3400 -3300 -3400 -3300 -3200 -3100 -3000 -3100
[1486] -3000 -3100 -3000 -3100 -3200 -3300 -3400 -3300 -3400 -3300 -3400 -3500 -3400 -3300 -3200
[1501] -3300 -3200 -3100 -3000 -3100 -3000 -2900 -3000 -3100 -3000 -3100 -3200 -3300 -3200 -3300
[1516] -3200 -3100 -3000 -2900 -2800 -2700 -2600 -2500 -2400 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2100 -2000
[1531] -2100 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1700 -1800 -1900 -1800 -1700 -1800 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1700
[1546] -1800 -1700 -1800 -1900 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1400
[1561] -1300 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1700 -1800 -1900 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1900 -2000 -2100
[1576] -2200 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2400 -2300 -2400 -2500 -2600 -2700 -2600 -2700 -2800 -2700 -2600
[1591] -2500 -2400 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2600 -2700 -2800 -2900 -2800 -2900 -3000 -2900 -3000 -3100
[1606] -3200 -3300 -3200 -3300 -3400 -3500 -3400 -3300 -3400 -3500 -3600 -3500 -3600 -3500 -3600
[1621] -3500 -3400 -3500 -3400 -3500 -3600 -3700 -3600 -3700 -3800 -3700 -3800 -3700 -3600 -3700
[1636] -3800 -3700 -3800 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4400
[1651] -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300
[1666] -4200 -4100 -4000 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4200
[1681] -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4300
[1696] -4200 -4100 -4000 -3900 -4000 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4200
[1711] -4100 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700
[1726] -4600 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600
[1741] -4500 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300
[1756] -4200 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4100 -4000 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4200
[1771] -4100 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4000 -3900 -4000 -3900 -3800 -3700 -3800 -3900
[1786] -3800 -3900 -3800 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4000 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4200
[1801] -4100 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4900
[1816] -5000 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4600
[1831] -4500 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4400 -4300
[1846] -4200 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4600
[1861] -4500 -4600 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300
[1876] -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4100 -4000 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4200
[1891] -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4500
[1906] -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4100 -4000 -3900 -3800 -3900 -3800 -3700 -3600
[1921] -3500 -3600 -3700 -3600 -3700 -3600 -3700 -3600 -3700 -3800 -3900 -4000 -3900 -4000 -3900
[1936] -3800 -3900 -4000 -3900 -3800 -3900 -3800 -3700 -3800 -3700 -3600 -3700 -3600 -3500 -3600
[1951] -3700 -3600 -3700 -3800 -3700 -3800 -3900 -3800 -3900 -4000 -3900 -3800 -3900 -4000 -4100
[1966] -4200 -4100 -4000 -4100 -4000 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4000 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4000 -4100 -4200
[1981] -4100 -4000 -3900 -3800 -3900 -4000 -3900 -3800 -3900 -3800 -3900 -3800 -3900 -4000 -3900
[1996] -4000 -3900 -4000 -3900 -4000 -3900 -3800 -3900 -3800 -3900 -3800 -3700 -3600 -3700 -3800
[2011] -3700 -3800 -3900 -3800 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4000 -4100 -4000 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4300
[2026] -4400 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4900 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4900 -5000
[2041] -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5100
[2056] -5200 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5500 -5600 -5700 -5800 -5900 -6000 -6100 -6000
[2071] -5900 -5800 -5700 -5800 -5900 -5800 -5900 -6000 -6100 -6000 -6100 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6100
[2086] -6200 -6300 -6400 -6500 -6600 -6500 -6600 -6700 -6800 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6800 -6900 -7000
[2101] -7100 -7000 -6900 -7000 -6900 -7000 -6900 -7000 -7100 -7000 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6600 -6500
[2116] -6400 -6500 -6600 -6700 -6600 -6700 -6600 -6500 -6400 -6500 -6400 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6400
[2131] -6500 -6400 -6500 -6400 -6500 -6600 -6500 -6600 -6700 -6800 -6900 -7000 -7100 -7000 -6900
[2146] -6800 -6700 -6800 -6700 -6800 -6700 -6600 -6500 -6600 -6500 -6400 -6300 -6400 -6500 -6600
[2161] -6700 -6800 -6700 -6800 -6900 -7000 -6900 -7000 -7100 -7000 -6900 -7000 -7100 -7000 -7100
[2176] -7000 -7100 -7200 -7300 -7400 -7300 -7400 -7300 -7200 -7300 -7400 -7300 -7400 -7300 -7200
[2191] -7300 -7400 -7500 -7400 -7300 -7200 -7300 -7400 -7300 -7400 -7500 -7400 -7500 -7400 -7300
[2206] -7200 -7300 -7400 -7300 -7200 -7300 -7400 -7500 -7400 -7300 -7400 -7300 -7400 -7300 -7400
[2221] -7500 -7400 -7300 -7200 -7300 -7200 -7300 -7200 -7100 -7000 -7100 -7000 -7100 -7000 -6900
[2236] -7000 -7100 -7200 -7100 -7000 -7100 -7000 -6900 -7000 -7100 -7000 -7100 -7200 -7300 -7400
[2251] -7500 -7600 -7500 -7400 -7500 -7600 -7700 -7600 -7500 -7400 -7300 -7400 -7300 -7200 -7100
[2266] -7000 -7100 -7200 -7100 -7000 -6900 -6800 -6900 -7000 -7100 -7200 -7100 -7000 -7100 -7000
[2281] -7100 -7200 -7100 -7200 -7300 -7200 -7100 -7200 -7100 -7000 -7100 -7200 -7100 -7000 -6900
[2296] -6800 -6700 -6800 -6700 -6600 -6700 -6800 -6900 -7000 -6900 -6800 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6800
[2311] -6900 -7000 -7100 -7000 -7100 -7000 -6900 -7000 -6900 -6800 -6900 -7000 -7100 -7200 -7100
[2326] -7000 -7100 -7200 -7100 -7000 -6900 -6800 -6900 -7000 -7100 -7000 -6900 -6800 -6900 -7000
[2341] -6900 -6800 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6600 -6700 -6600 -6500 -6400 -6500 -6400 -6500 -6400 -6300
[2356] -6400 -6500 -6400 -6500 -6400 -6500 -6600 -6500 -6400 -6300 -6400 -6500 -6400 -6300 -6200
[2371] -6100 -6000 -6100 -6000 -5900 -5800 -5700 -5800 -5900 -6000 -6100 -6000 -6100 -6200 -6300
[2386] -6400 -6300 -6200 -6100 -6000 -6100 -6000 -6100 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6100 -6000 -6100 -6000
[2401] -6100 -6000 -6100 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6100 -6200 -6100 -6000 -5900 -6000 -5900 -5800 -5900
[2416] -5800 -5700 -5800 -5900 -6000 -5900 -5800 -5900 -5800 -5700 -5600 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5400
[2431] -5500 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5500
[2446] -5400 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5400
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[2476] -5200 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4600
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[2581] -3700 -3600 -3500 -3400 -3500 -3400 -3300 -3200 -3300 -3400 -3300 -3400 -3300 -3200 -3100
[2596] -3000 -2900 -2800 -2700 -2600 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2600 -2500 -2400 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2400
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[2626] -2400 -2300 -2400 -2500 -2400 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2100 -2200
[2641] -2100 -2200 -2100 -2000 -2100 -2200 -2300 -2400 -2500 -2600 -2700 -2600 -2500 -2400 -2300
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[2716] -2200 -2300 -2400 -2300 -2400 -2300 -2400 -2300 -2400 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2600 -2700 -2600
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[2746] -2800 -2700 -2600 -2700 -2600 -2500 -2600 -2700 -2600 -2700 -2600 -2500 -2600 -2500 -2400
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[2791] -2700 -2600 -2700 -2600 -2500 -2600 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2400 -2300 -2400 -2300 -2400 -2300
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[2836] -1800 -1700 -1800 -1700 -1800 -1900 -1800 -1900 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2000
[2851] -2100 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2100 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2100 -2200 -2300
[2866] -2400 -2500 -2600 -2700 -2800 -2700 -2600 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2600 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2400
[2881] -2300 -2200 -2300 -2400 -2300 -2200 -2100 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2100 -2000 -1900 -2000 -2100
[2896] -2200 -2100 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1900 -1800 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1500 -1600
[2911] -1700 -1800 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1900 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1900 -1800 -1700 -1800 -1700
[2926] -1800 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1900 -1800 -1900 -2000 -1900 -1800
[2941] -1700 -1800 -1900 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2100 -2000 -1900
[2956] -2000 -1900 -1800 -1700 -1800 -1900 -1800 -1900 -1800 -1700 -1800 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2200
[2971] -2100 -2000 -2100 -2000 -1900 -2000 -1900 -2000 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1900
[2986] -2000 -2100 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2200 -2300 -2400 -2500 -2400 -2300 -2200
[3001] -2100 -2000 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2000 -2100 -2000 -2100 -2200 -2300 -2400 -2300 -2400 -2300
[3016] -2400 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2600 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2600 -2700 -2800 -2900 -2800 -2900 -2800
[3031] -2700 -2600 -2700 -2600 -2500 -2400 -2300 -2400 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2600 -2700 -2600 -2500
[3046] -2600 -2500 -2400 -2300 -2400 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2400 -2300 -2400 -2300 -2200
[3061] -2300 -2200 -2100 -2200 -2100 -2000 -2100 -2200 -2100 -2000 -2100 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2100
[3076] -2200 -2300 -2400 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2400 -2500 -2600 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2600 -2700 -2600
[3091] -2700 -2600 -2500 -2600 -2500 -2600 -2500 -2600 -2700 -2800 -2900 -3000 -3100 -3000 -2900
[3106] -3000 -3100 -3200 -3100 -3000 -2900 -3000 -3100 -3000 -3100 -3000 -3100 -3200 -3100 -3000
[3121] -2900 -2800 -2700 -2600 -2700 -2600 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2400 -2300 -2200 -2100 -2200 -2300
[3136] -2400 -2300 -2400 -2500 -2400 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2400 -2300 -2400 -2300 -2400 -2300 -2200
[3151] -2300 -2400 -2300 -2400 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2600 -2500 -2600 -2700 -2800 -2700
[3166] -2800 -2900 -3000 -2900 -3000 -3100 -3000 -3100 -3000 -2900 -2800 -2700 -2800 -2900 -3000
[3181] -2900 -3000 -3100 -3000 -3100 -3000 -3100 -3000 -2900 -3000 -3100 -3000 -2900 -3000 -2900
[3196] -3000 -2900 -3000 -2900 -2800 -2900 -3000 -2900 -3000 -2900 -3000 -2900 -3000 -3100 -3000
[3211] -3100 -3200 -3100 -3000 -3100 -3200 -3100 -3000 -2900 -3000 -2900 -2800 -2700 -2600 -2700
[3226] -2600 -2500 -2400 -2300 -2400 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2400 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2400
[3241] -2500 -2600 -2500 -2600 -2500 -2400 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2300
[3256] -2200 -2300 -2400 -2300 -2200 -2100 -2000 -2100 -2200 -2100 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2200
[3271] -2100 -2200 -2300 -2400 -2500 -2400 -2300 -2400 -2300 -2200 -2100 -2000 -2100 -2200 -2300
[3286] -2400 -2300 -2400 -2500 -2600 -2700 -2600 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2600 -2500 -2400 -2300 -2400
[3301] -2300 -2200 -2300 -2400 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2400 -2300 -2200 -2100
[3316] -2000 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2000 -2100 -2000 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2000 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2000
[3331] -2100 -2200 -2100 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2100 -2200 -2300 -2400 -2500 -2600 -2500 -2600 -2500
[3346] -2400 -2300 -2200 -2100 -2200 -2100 -2200 -2100 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2100 -2200 -2100 -2200
[3361] -2100 -2000 -1900 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1400 -1500 -1400 -1500
[3376] -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1900 -2000 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2200
[3391] -2100 -2000 -2100 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1700 -1600 -1500
[3406] -1400 -1500 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1600
[3421] -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1400 -1500
[3436] -1400 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1200 -1300 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1300 -1400
[3451] -1300 -1200 -1300 -1200 -1100 -1200 -1300 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1100 -1000 -900 -800 -900
[3466] -800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -500 -400 -300 -400 -500 -400 -500 -600 -700 -600
[3481] -500 -600 -500 -600 -500 -400 -500 -600 -500 -600 -700 -800 -700 -800 -900
[3496] -1000 -900 -1000 -1100 -1200 -1300 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1600
[3511] -1500 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1700 -1800 -1900 -2000 -1900 -2000 -1900 -2000 -1900
[3526] -2000 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2200 -2100 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600
[3541] -1700 -1800 -1900 -1800 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1400 -1300
[3556] -1400 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1100 -1000 -900 -800 -900 -800 -700 -600 -700 -600
[3571] -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 0 -100 0 -100 0 -100
[3586] -200 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 -600 -700 -600 -700 -600 -700 -800
[3601] -900 -1000 -900 -800 -700 -800 -900 -1000 -900 -800 -900 -800 -700 -800 -900
[3616] -1000 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1200 -1300 -1400 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1300 -1200 -1100 -1200
[3631] -1300 -1200 -1300 -1200 -1300 -1200 -1300 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1300 -1200 -1300 -1400 -1500
[3646] -1600 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1300 -1200 -1100 -1200 -1300 -1200 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1200
[3661] -1100 -1200 -1300 -1200 -1300 -1200 -1300 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1300 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1700
[3676] -1600 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1300 -1200 -1100 -1200 -1300 -1200 -1300 -1400 -1300 -1400
[3691] -1300 -1200 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1200 -1300 -1200 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1200 -1300
[3706] -1200 -1300 -1200 -1300 -1200 -1100 -1000 -900 -800 -700 -600 -700 -600 -500 -600
[3721] -700 -800 -900 -800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -300 -200 -100 -200 -100
[3736] -200 -300 -400 -500 -400 -300 -400 -500 -600 -500 -600 -500 -600 -700 -800
[3751] -700 -800 -900 -1000 -900 -800 -700 -800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100
[3766] -200 -300 -200 -100 0 -100 0 100 0 100 0 -100 0 -100 -200
[3781] -100 -200 -300 -400 -300 -400 -300 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -500 -400 -300
[3796] -200 -100 0 -100 0 100 0 100 200 100 200 100 200 100 200
[3811] 300 400 500 400 300 400 300 400 300 400 300 400 500 600 500
[3826] 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 -800 -700 -600
[3841] -700 -600 -700 -600 -500 -400 -500 -600 -500 -600 -700 -600 -700 -600 -700
[3856] -800 -900 -1000 -900 -800 -700 -600 -500 -600 -500 -400 -300 -400 -300 -400
[3871] -500 -400 -300 -400 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 -200 -100 -200 -100 -200 -100
[3886] -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 -800 -700 -800 -700 -800 -900 -800 -700 -600
[3901] -700 -600 -500 -600 -500 -400 -300 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 -100 0 100
[3916] 200 100 200 300 200 100 200 100 0 100 200 100 200 300 400
[3931] 500 600 700 800 700 600 500 400 500 600 700 600 700 600 700
[3946] 600 700 800 700 600 700 600 500 400 300 400 500 400 500 600
[3961] 500 600 700 800 700 800 700 600 700 800 900 800 900 1000 900
[3976] 800 700 600 500 600 500 600 500 600 700 800 900 800 900 1000
[3991] 1100 1000 1100 1200 1100 1200 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1400 1500 1400 1500
[4006] 1600 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1400
[4021] 1500 1400 1500 1600 1500 1400 1300 1400 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1200 1100
[4036] 1000 1100 1000 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 500 400 500 600
[4051] 700 600 700 600 700 800 700 600 700 600 500 400 500 400 300
[4066] 400 300 400 300 400 300 400 300 400 300 200 100 200 300 400
[4081] 500 400 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -200 -300 -400 -500
[4096] -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -300 -400 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 -800 -700 -800
[4111] -900 -1000 -1100 -1200 -1300 -1200 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1000 -900 -1000 -1100
[4126] -1000 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1200 -1300 -1400
[4141] -1500 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1700
[4156] -1800 -1700 -1800 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1600
[4171] -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1700 -1800 -1700 -1800 -1700 -1800 -1700 -1800 -1900
[4186] -1800 -1900 -1800 -1900 -1800 -1900 -1800 -1900 -1800 -1900 -1800 -1900 -1800 -1900 -2000
[4201] -2100 -2000 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2100
[4216] -2200 -2100 -2000 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2400 -2300
>
so you would be down -$2,300, I know that most traders that are aspiring to make money of the market, and are taking so much time to learn as well as experience traders that have been making money or have been trying to be successful for a long time will get a visceral reaction to the suggestion of randomness as if they believe the market was random we are all wasting our time.
do not dismiss the null hypothesis on unfounded beliefs or feelings even if it is insulting to you.
how do you know your patterns actually work? via statistical probability? some say it works on x but not on Y condition, you must be very discretionary as not all conditions are the same...well then i claim your patterns bring no edge per se.
if you were betting on the open price to close positive +1
100*cumulative sum of 4227 random points
> 100*(cumsum(randombinary))
[1] 100 200 300 400 500 400 300 400 300 400 300 400 300 400 500
[16] 600 700 800 900 800 900 1000 900 1000 900 800 900 800 900 1000
[31] 900 1000 900 800 700 800 900 1000 1100 1000 1100 1200 1100 1000 1100
[46] 1200 1100 1000 1100 1000 1100 1000 900 800 900 1000 1100 1000 1100 1000
[61] 900 800 900 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1100 1000 900 1000 900 800 900
[76] 1000 1100 1000 900 800 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 300 200
[91] 300 400 300 200 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 200 300 200 100
[106] 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 -100 0 100 0 100 200 100 0
[121] -100 -200 -100 0 -100 -200 -300 -200 -300 -200 -100 0 -100 -200 -100
[136] 0 100 0 100 200 100 200 300 400 500 400 500 400 500 600
[151] 500 400 500 400 500 600 700 800 700 600 700 800 700 800 700
[166] 600 500 400 500 600 700 600 700 600 700 800 900 800 900 800
[181] 900 800 900 800 900 1000 900 1000 900 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1100
[196] 1000 900 1000 900 1000 900 800 900 800 900 1000 900 1000 1100 1200
[211] 1300 1400 1500 1600 1500 1400 1500 1400 1300 1200 1300 1400 1300 1200 1100
[226] 1200 1100 1200 1300 1400 1300 1200 1300 1400 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1600
[241] 1700 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1400 1500 1400 1300 1400 1500
[256] 1600 1500 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800
[271] 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000 2100
[286] 2000 2100 2000 2100 2000 2100 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000
[301] 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900 2000 2100 2000 2100
[316] 2000 2100 2000 1900 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1300 1200
[331] 1300 1200 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1300 1400 1300
[346] 1400 1300 1400 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600
[361] 1700 1600 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900
[376] 800 900 1000 1100 1000 900 1000 1100 1000 900 1000 1100 1200 1100 1200
[391] 1300 1400 1300 1400 1500 1600 1500 1400 1300 1400 1500 1400 1500 1400 1500
[406] 1400 1500 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600
[421] 1700 1800 1900 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2200 2300 2400 2300 2400 2500
[436] 2600 2500 2600 2500 2600 2700 2800 2700 2800 2900 3000 2900 3000 3100 3000
[451] 3100 3000 3100 3000 2900 2800 2900 2800 2900 3000 2900 2800 2700 2800 2900
[466] 3000 2900 2800 2900 2800 2700 2800 2700 2600 2700 2600 2700 2600 2500 2400
[481] 2300 2400 2300 2400 2300 2200 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 2000 1900 1800 1700
[496] 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1500 1400 1500 1600 1700 1600
[511] 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 1000 900 1000 1100 1000 900 800 900
[526] 800 700 600 700 800 700 600 500 600 500 600 500 400 500 400
[541] 500 600 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1000 900 1000 1100 1000 1100
[556] 1000 1100 1200 1100 1200 1100 1200 1100 1000 1100 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400
[571] 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700
[586] 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600
[601] 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900 2000 2100 2000 2100 2200 2300
[616] 2200 2100 2000 2100 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600
[631] 2500 2400 2300 2400 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000 2900 3000 3100
[646] 3000 3100 3000 3100 3000 3100 3000 3100 3200 3300 3200 3100 3200 3300 3400
[661] 3300 3400 3300 3400 3500 3400 3500 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3500
[676] 3600 3500 3600 3500 3400 3500 3600 3500 3600 3700 3800 3900 4000 3900 4000
[691] 4100 4000 4100 4000 4100 4000 4100 4000 3900 3800 3900 3800 3700 3800 3900
[706] 4000 3900 4000 4100 4200 4100 4200 4300 4200 4100 4200 4300 4200 4100 4200
[721] 4300 4200 4100 4000 3900 4000 4100 4000 3900 3800 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100
[736] 4200 4100 4200 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 4600 4700 4600 4500 4400
[751] 4300 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4000 3900 4000 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500
[766] 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000
[781] 5100 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4900
[796] 4800 4700 4600 4500 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4900 4800 4900 5000 5100 5000
[811] 5100 5200 5100 5000 5100 5000 4900 5000 4900 5000 4900 5000 4900 4800 4700
[826] 4800 4900 5000 4900 5000 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5000 4900 5000 4900 5000
[841] 5100 5200 5100 5000 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300
[856] 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5200 5300 5200 5300 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200
[871] 5100 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4600 4500 4400 4500 4400 4300
[886] 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4700 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600
[901] 4700 4800 4900 5000 5100 5000 5100 5200 5100 5000 4900 5000 5100 5000 5100
[916] 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4700 4600 4500 4600 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800
[931] 4900 5000 5100 5000 4900 4800 4900 5000 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5200 5300
[946] 5400 5300 5200 5300 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5600
[961] 5500 5400 5300 5200 5100 5200 5100 5000 4900 4800 4900 4800 4700 4800 4700
[976] 4800 4900 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4900 5000 4900 4800 4900 5000 4900 4800
[991] 4700 4800 4700 4800 4700 4600 4500 4400 4500 4600 4700 4600 4700 4600 4700
[1006] 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4300 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300 4200
[1021] 4100 4000 4100 4200 4100 4000 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300
[1036] 4200 4300 4200 4100 4000 4100 4200 4300 4200 4100 4200 4300 4400 4300 4200
[1051] 4100 4000 4100 4200 4300 4200 4100 4200 4100 4000 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100
[1066] 4000 4100 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3800 3700 3800 3900 3800 3700 3800
[1081] 3700 3600 3500 3600 3500 3400 3500 3400 3500 3600 3500 3400 3500 3400 3300
[1096] 3400 3500 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3800 3900 3800 3700 3800 3700 3600
[1111] 3700 3600 3500 3400 3300 3400 3300 3200 3300 3400 3300 3400 3500 3400 3500
[1126] 3600 3700 3800 3700 3600 3500 3600 3500 3400 3300 3200 3300 3200 3300 3200
[1141] 3300 3400 3500 3400 3500 3400 3300 3400 3300 3200 3300 3200 3100 3200 3300
[1156] 3400 3500 3600 3500 3400 3500 3600 3700 3600 3500 3600 3700 3800 3700 3800
[1171] 3900 4000 3900 3800 3700 3800 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3500 3400 3300
[1186] 3400 3500 3400 3500 3600 3700 3800 3900 4000 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4000
[1201] 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4400 4300
[1216] 4200 4100 4200 4300 4200 4100 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3900 4000 4100 4200
[1231] 4300 4200 4300 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4400 4500 4600 4700
[1246] 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 4600 4700 4800
[1261] 4900 4800 4900 5000 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5200 5300 5200 5300 5200 5300
[1276] 5200 5100 5000 4900 5000 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5000 5100 5000
[1291] 4900 4800 4900 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800 4900 4800 4900 4800 4700 4600 4700
[1306] 4800 4900 4800 4900 4800 4900 5000 5100 5000 4900 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800
[1321] 4900 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800 4900
[1336] 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5300 5200 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400
[1351] 5300 5200 5300 5400 5300 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400 5500 5400 5300 5200 5300
[1366] 5400 5300 5200 5100 5200 5100 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4900 5000 4900 5000
[1381] 4900 5000 4900 5000 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5400 5300 5400 5300 5200 5100
[1396] 5200 5300 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5000 5100 5000 5100 5000 4900 4800
[1411] 4700 4600 4700 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4900 4800 4700
[1426] 4800 4700 4600 4700 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4400
[1441] 4300 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3800 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700
[1456] 3600 3700 3600 3500 3400 3500 3600 3500 3400 3300 3400 3500 3600 3700 3800
[1471] 3700 3800 3700 3800 3700 3600 3500 3400 3300 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 3100
[1486] 3000 3100 3000 3100 3200 3300 3400 3300 3400 3300 3400 3500 3400 3300 3200
[1501] 3300 3200 3100 3000 3100 3000 2900 3000 3100 3000 3100 3200 3300 3200 3300
[1516] 3200 3100 3000 2900 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 2300 2200 2100 2000
[1531] 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1800 1900 1800 1700 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600 1700
[1546] 1800 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1500 1400
[1561] 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000 2100
[1576] 2200 2300 2200 2300 2400 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2600 2700 2800 2700 2600
[1591] 2500 2400 2500 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 2800 2900 3000 2900 3000 3100
[1606] 3200 3300 3200 3300 3400 3500 3400 3300 3400 3500 3600 3500 3600 3500 3600
[1621] 3500 3400 3500 3400 3500 3600 3700 3600 3700 3800 3700 3800 3700 3600 3700
[1636] 3800 3700 3800 3900 4000 4100 4200 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4400
[1651] 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4700 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4300
[1666] 4200 4100 4000 3900 4000 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300 4200
[1681] 4300 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4400 4300 4400 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300
[1696] 4200 4100 4000 3900 4000 3900 4000 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200
[1711] 4100 4200 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4700 4800 4700
[1726] 4600 4700 4600 4500 4400 4500 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600
[1741] 4500 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4300 4200 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300
[1756] 4200 4300 4400 4500 4400 4300 4200 4300 4200 4100 4000 3900 4000 4100 4200
[1771] 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4000 3900 4000 3900 3800 3700 3800 3900
[1786] 3800 3900 3800 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300 4200
[1801] 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 4800 4900
[1816] 5000 4900 5000 5100 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4600 4700 4600
[1831] 4500 4600 4700 4600 4700 4600 4700 4800 4700 4600 4500 4600 4500 4400 4300
[1846] 4200 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4500 4400 4500 4600
[1861] 4500 4600 4500 4400 4300 4400 4500 4400 4500 4400 4300 4400 4300 4200 4300
[1876] 4200 4300 4400 4300 4200 4300 4200 4100 4000 4100 4200 4300 4400 4300 4200
[1891] 4300 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4400 4500 4400 4500 4400 4500
[1906] 4400 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3900 3800 3700 3600
[1921] 3500 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3800 3900 4000 3900 4000 3900
[1936] 3800 3900 4000 3900 3800 3900 3800 3700 3800 3700 3600 3700 3600 3500 3600
[1951] 3700 3600 3700 3800 3700 3800 3900 3800 3900 4000 3900 3800 3900 4000 4100
[1966] 4200 4100 4000 4100 4000 4100 4200 4100 4000 4100 4200 4100 4000 4100 4200
[1981] 4100 4000 3900 3800 3900 4000 3900 3800 3900 3800 3900 3800 3900 4000 3900
[1996] 4000 3900 4000 3900 4000 3900 3800 3900 3800 3900 3800 3700 3600 3700 3800
[2011] 3700 3800 3900 3800 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100 4000 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300
[2026] 4400 4500 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000 4900 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000
[2041] 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5200 5100 5000 5100 5200 5100 5000 5100 5200 5100
[2056] 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6000
[2071] 5900 5800 5700 5800 5900 5800 5900 6000 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300 6200 6100
[2086] 6200 6300 6400 6500 6600 6500 6600 6700 6800 6900 6800 6700 6800 6900 7000
[2101] 7100 7000 6900 7000 6900 7000 6900 7000 7100 7000 6900 6800 6700 6600 6500
[2116] 6400 6500 6600 6700 6600 6700 6600 6500 6400 6500 6400 6300 6200 6300 6400
[2131] 6500 6400 6500 6400 6500 6600 6500 6600 6700 6800 6900 7000 7100 7000 6900
[2146] 6800 6700 6800 6700 6800 6700 6600 6500 6600 6500 6400 6300 6400 6500 6600
[2161] 6700 6800 6700 6800 6900 7000 6900 7000 7100 7000 6900 7000 7100 7000 7100
[2176] 7000 7100 7200 7300 7400 7300 7400 7300 7200 7300 7400 7300 7400 7300 7200
[2191] 7300 7400 7500 7400 7300 7200 7300 7400 7300 7400 7500 7400 7500 7400 7300
[2206] 7200 7300 7400 7300 7200 7300 7400 7500 7400 7300 7400 7300 7400 7300 7400
[2221] 7500 7400 7300 7200 7300 7200 7300 7200 7100 7000 7100 7000 7100 7000 6900
[2236] 7000 7100 7200 7100 7000 7100 7000 6900 7000 7100 7000 7100 7200 7300 7400
[2251] 7500 7600 7500 7400 7500 7600 7700 7600 7500 7400 7300 7400 7300 7200 7100
[2266] 7000 7100 7200 7100 7000 6900 6800 6900 7000 7100 7200 7100 7000 7100 7000
[2281] 7100 7200 7100 7200 7300 7200 7100 7200 7100 7000 7100 7200 7100 7000 6900
[2296] 6800 6700 6800 6700 6600 6700 6800 6900 7000 6900 6800 6900 6800 6700 6800
[2311] 6900 7000 7100 7000 7100 7000 6900 7000 6900 6800 6900 7000 7100 7200 7100
[2326] 7000 7100 7200 7100 7000 6900 6800 6900 7000 7100 7000 6900 6800 6900 7000
[2341] 6900 6800 6900 6800 6700 6600 6700 6600 6500 6400 6500 6400 6500 6400 6300
[2356] 6400 6500 6400 6500 6400 6500 6600 6500 6400 6300 6400 6500 6400 6300 6200
[2371] 6100 6000 6100 6000 5900 5800 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300
[2386] 6400 6300 6200 6100 6000 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300 6200 6100 6000 6100 6000
[2401] 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300 6200 6100 6200 6100 6000 5900 6000 5900 5800 5900
[2416] 5800 5700 5800 5900 6000 5900 5800 5900 5800 5700 5600 5500 5400 5300 5400
[2431] 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400 5300 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400 5500 5400 5500
[2446] 5400 5300 5400 5300 5200 5300 5400 5300 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400
[2461] 5300 5400 5300 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5200 5100
[2476] 5200 5300 5200 5300 5200 5100 5000 4900 4800 4900 4800 4700 4600 4500 4600
[2491] 4500 4400 4300 4400 4300 4200 4100 4000 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100
[2506] 4000 4100 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3800 3900 4000
[2521] 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3500 3400 3300
[2536] 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 3100 3200 3300 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 2900 3000
[2551] 3100 3000 3100 3000 2900 2800 2700 2800 2900 3000 2900 3000 3100 3200 3300
[2566] 3400 3300 3400 3500 3600 3700 3800 3900 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 3500 3600
[2581] 3700 3600 3500 3400 3500 3400 3300 3200 3300 3400 3300 3400 3300 3200 3100
[2596] 3000 2900 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 2500 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 2300 2400
[2611] 2300 2400 2500 2400 2300 2200 2300 2400 2300 2400 2500 2600 2500 2400 2300
[2626] 2400 2300 2400 2500 2400 2300 2200 2300 2200 2300 2200 2300 2200 2100 2200
[2641] 2100 2200 2100 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300
[2656] 2200 2100 2200 2300 2200 2100 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600
[2671] 1500 1400 1300 1400 1300 1400 1500 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1500 1400 1500
[2686] 1600 1700 1800 1700 1800 1700 1600 1700 1800 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800
[2701] 1700 1800 1700 1800 1900 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
[2716] 2200 2300 2400 2300 2400 2300 2400 2300 2400 2500 2400 2500 2600 2700 2600
[2731] 2500 2600 2700 2600 2500 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 2800 2700 2600 2700
[2746] 2800 2700 2600 2700 2600 2500 2600 2700 2600 2700 2600 2500 2600 2500 2400
[2761] 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 2800 2900 2800 2900 2800 2700 2800 2700 2600 2500
[2776] 2400 2500 2400 2500 2600 2700 2600 2500 2600 2500 2600 2700 2800 2700 2600
[2791] 2700 2600 2700 2600 2500 2600 2500 2400 2500 2400 2300 2400 2300 2400 2300
[2806] 2200 2100 2200 2100 2000 1900 2000 2100 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600
[2821] 1500 1600 1700 1600 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700
[2836] 1800 1700 1800 1700 1800 1900 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000 2100 2000
[2851] 2100 2200 2300 2200 2300 2200 2100 2200 2300 2200 2300 2200 2100 2200 2300
[2866] 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 2500 2600 2500 2400 2500 2400
[2881] 2300 2200 2300 2400 2300 2200 2100 2200 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 2000 2100
[2896] 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1600 1500 1600 1500 1600
[2911] 1700 1800 1700 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800 1900 1800 1700 1800 1700
[2926] 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600 1700 1600 1700 1800 1900 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800
[2941] 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900
[2956] 2000 1900 1800 1700 1800 1900 1800 1900 1800 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200
[2971] 2100 2000 2100 2000 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900 2000 2100 2000 1900 1800 1900
[2986] 2000 2100 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2400 2300 2200
[3001] 2100 2000 1900 2000 2100 2000 2100 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2300 2400 2300
[3016] 2400 2500 2400 2500 2600 2500 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 2800 2900 2800
[3031] 2700 2600 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300 2400 2500 2400 2500 2600 2700 2600 2500
[3046] 2600 2500 2400 2300 2400 2300 2200 2300 2200 2300 2400 2300 2400 2300 2200
[3061] 2300 2200 2100 2200 2100 2000 2100 2200 2100 2000 2100 2200 2300 2200 2100
[3076] 2200 2300 2400 2300 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2500 2400 2500 2600 2700 2600
[3091] 2700 2600 2500 2600 2500 2600 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000 3100 3000 2900
[3106] 3000 3100 3200 3100 3000 2900 3000 3100 3000 3100 3000 3100 3200 3100 3000
[3121] 2900 2800 2700 2600 2700 2600 2500 2400 2500 2400 2300 2200 2100 2200 2300
[3136] 2400 2300 2400 2500 2400 2300 2200 2300 2400 2300 2400 2300 2400 2300 2200
[3151] 2300 2400 2300 2400 2500 2400 2500 2400 2500 2600 2500 2600 2700 2800 2700
[3166] 2800 2900 3000 2900 3000 3100 3000 3100 3000 2900 2800 2700 2800 2900 3000
[3181] 2900 3000 3100 3000 3100 3000 3100 3000 2900 3000 3100 3000 2900 3000 2900
[3196] 3000 2900 3000 2900 2800 2900 3000 2900 3000 2900 3000 2900 3000 3100 3000
[3211] 3100 3200 3100 3000 3100 3200 3100 3000 2900 3000 2900 2800 2700 2600 2700
[3226] 2600 2500 2400 2300 2400 2500 2400 2500 2400 2300 2200 2300 2200 2300 2400
[3241] 2500 2600 2500 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 2300 2200 2300 2200 2300 2200 2300
[3256] 2200 2300 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 2100 2200 2100 2200 2300 2200 2300 2200
[3271] 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2400 2300 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 2100 2200 2300
[3286] 2400 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2600 2500 2400 2500 2600 2500 2400 2300 2400
[3301] 2300 2200 2300 2400 2500 2400 2500 2400 2500 2400 2500 2400 2300 2200 2100
[3316] 2000 1900 2000 2100 2000 2100 2000 1900 2000 2100 2000 1900 2000 2100 2000
[3331] 2100 2200 2100 2200 2300 2200 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2500 2600 2500
[3346] 2400 2300 2200 2100 2200 2100 2200 2100 2200 2300 2200 2100 2200 2100 2200
[3361] 2100 2000 1900 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1400 1500 1400 1500
[3376] 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 2000 2100 2200
[3391] 2100 2000 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700 1600 1500
[3406] 1400 1500 1400 1500 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1500 1400 1500 1600 1700 1600
[3421] 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700 1600 1700 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1500
[3436] 1400 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1200 1100 1200 1300 1400 1300 1200 1300 1400
[3451] 1300 1200 1300 1200 1100 1200 1300 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 900
[3466] 800 700 600 500 400 500 400 300 400 500 400 500 600 700 600
[3481] 500 600 500 600 500 400 500 600 500 600 700 800 700 800 900
[3496] 1000 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1700 1600
[3511] 1500 1600 1700 1600 1700 1800 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900
[3526] 2000 1900 2000 2100 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600
[3541] 1700 1800 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300
[3556] 1400 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 900 800 700 600 700 600
[3571] 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 0 100 0 100 0 100
[3586] 200 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 600 700 600 700 600 700 800
[3601] 900 1000 900 800 700 800 900 1000 900 800 900 800 700 800 900
[3616] 1000 1100 1200 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1400 1300 1200 1300 1200 1100 1200
[3631] 1300 1200 1300 1200 1300 1200 1300 1400 1300 1200 1300 1200 1300 1400 1500
[3646] 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1300 1200 1100 1200 1300 1200 1100 1000 1100 1200
[3661] 1100 1200 1300 1200 1300 1200 1300 1400 1300 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700
[3676] 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1300 1200 1100 1200 1300 1200 1300 1400 1300 1400
[3691] 1300 1200 1100 1000 1100 1200 1300 1200 1100 1000 1100 1000 1100 1200 1300
[3706] 1200 1300 1200 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 700 600 500 600
[3721] 700 800 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 300 200 100 200 100
[3736] 200 300 400 500 400 300 400 500 600 500 600 500 600 700 800
[3751] 700 800 900 1000 900 800 700 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100
[3766] 200 300 200 100 0 100 0 -100 0 -100 0 100 0 100 200
[3781] 100 200 300 400 300 400 300 200 300 400 500 600 500 400 300
[3796] 200 100 0 100 0 -100 0 -100 -200 -100 -200 -100 -200 -100 -200
[3811] -300 -400 -500 -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -500 -600 -500
[3826] -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 700 600
[3841] 700 600 700 600 500 400 500 600 500 600 700 600 700 600 700
[3856] 800 900 1000 900 800 700 600 500 600 500 400 300 400 300 400
[3871] 500 400 300 400 500 400 300 200 100 200 100 200 100 200 100
[3886] 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 700 800 700 800 900 800 700 600
[3901] 700 600 500 600 500 400 300 400 300 200 100 0 100 0 -100
[3916] -200 -100 -200 -300 -200 -100 -200 -100 0 -100 -200 -100 -200 -300 -400
[3931] -500 -600 -700 -800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -500 -600 -700 -600 -700 -600 -700
[3946] -600 -700 -800 -700 -600 -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -400 -500 -400 -500 -600
[3961] -500 -600 -700 -800 -700 -800 -700 -600 -700 -800 -900 -800 -900 -1000 -900
[3976] -800 -700 -600 -500 -600 -500 -600 -500 -600 -700 -800 -900 -800 -900 -1000
[3991] -1100 -1000 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1200 -1300 -1400 -1500 -1400 -1500 -1400 -1500
[4006] -1600 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1400
[4021] -1500 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1400 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1100 -1200 -1100
[4036] -1000 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1000 -900 -800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -500 -400 -500 -600
[4051] -700 -600 -700 -600 -700 -800 -700 -600 -700 -600 -500 -400 -500 -400 -300
[4066] -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -300 -200 -100 -200 -300 -400
[4081] -500 -400 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 200 300 400 500
[4096] 600 500 400 300 200 300 400 300 400 500 600 700 800 700 800
[4111] 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1200 1100 1000 1100 1000 1100 1000 900 1000 1100
[4126] 1000 1100 1200 1100 1200 1100 1200 1100 1200 1100 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400
[4141] 1500 1400 1500 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700
[4156] 1800 1700 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1600
[4171] 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700 1800 1700 1800 1700 1800 1700 1800 1900
[4186] 1800 1900 1800 1900 1800 1900 1800 1900 1800 1900 1800 1900 1800 1900 2000
[4201] 2100 2000 1900 2000 2100 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2200 2100
[4216] 2200 2100 2000 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2200 2300 2400 2300
so you would be up 2200% $2,300 dollars..... it is not true that you random means you must end up at square one, however gain or loss is pure luck 50% probability
now if you bet on the reverse
100*-(cumsum(randombinary))
[1] -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -500
[16] -600 -700 -800 -900 -800 -900 -1000 -900 -1000 -900 -800 -900 -800 -900 -1000
[31] -900 -1000 -900 -800 -700 -800 -900 -1000 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1000 -1100
[46] -1200 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1000 -900 -800 -900 -1000 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1000
[61] -900 -800 -900 -800 -900 -1000 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1000 -900 -1000 -900 -800 -900
[76] -1000 -1100 -1000 -900 -800 -900 -800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -300 -200
[91] -300 -400 -300 -200 -300 -200 -100 0 -100 -200 -300 -200 -300 -200 -100
[106] 0 -100 0 -100 0 -100 0 100 0 -100 0 -100 -200 -100 0
[121] 100 200 100 0 100 200 300 200 300 200 100 0 100 200 100
[136] 0 -100 0 -100 -200 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -400 -500 -400 -500 -600
[151] -500 -400 -500 -400 -500 -600 -700 -800 -700 -600 -700 -800 -700 -800 -700
[166] -600 -500 -400 -500 -600 -700 -600 -700 -600 -700 -800 -900 -800 -900 -800
[181] -900 -800 -900 -800 -900 -1000 -900 -1000 -900 -800 -900 -1000 -1100 -1200 -1100
[196] -1000 -900 -1000 -900 -1000 -900 -800 -900 -800 -900 -1000 -900 -1000 -1100 -1200
[211] -1300 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1500 -1400 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1300 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1100
[226] -1200 -1100 -1200 -1300 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1300 -1400 -1300 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1600
[241] -1700 -1800 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1400 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1400 -1500
[256] -1600 -1500 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1900 -2000 -1900 -1800
[271] -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1900 -2000 -1900 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1900 -2000 -2100
[286] -2000 -2100 -2000 -2100 -2000 -2100 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1900 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1900 -2000
[301] -1900 -2000 -1900 -2000 -1900 -2000 -1900 -2000 -1900 -2000 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2000 -2100
[316] -2000 -2100 -2000 -1900 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1300 -1200
[331] -1300 -1200 -1300 -1200 -1100 -1000 -900 -1000 -1100 -1200 -1300 -1400 -1300 -1400 -1300
[346] -1400 -1300 -1400 -1300 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600
[361] -1700 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1100 -1000 -900
[376] -800 -900 -1000 -1100 -1000 -900 -1000 -1100 -1000 -900 -1000 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1200
[391] -1300 -1400 -1300 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1400 -1500 -1400 -1500 -1400 -1500
[406] -1400 -1500 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1900 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1600
[421] -1700 -1800 -1900 -1800 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2400 -2300 -2400 -2500
[436] -2600 -2500 -2600 -2500 -2600 -2700 -2800 -2700 -2800 -2900 -3000 -2900 -3000 -3100 -3000
[451] -3100 -3000 -3100 -3000 -2900 -2800 -2900 -2800 -2900 -3000 -2900 -2800 -2700 -2800 -2900
[466] -3000 -2900 -2800 -2900 -2800 -2700 -2800 -2700 -2600 -2700 -2600 -2700 -2600 -2500 -2400
[481] -2300 -2400 -2300 -2400 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2100 -2000 -1900 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1700
[496] -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1500 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1600
[511] -1500 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1100 -1000 -900 -1000 -900 -1000 -1100 -1000 -900 -800 -900
[526] -800 -700 -600 -700 -800 -700 -600 -500 -600 -500 -600 -500 -400 -500 -400
[541] -500 -600 -500 -600 -700 -800 -900 -1000 -1100 -1000 -900 -1000 -1100 -1000 -1100
[556] -1000 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1200 -1300 -1400
[571] -1300 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1700
[586] -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600
[601] -1500 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1900 -2000 -1900 -2000 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2000 -2100 -2200 -2300
[616] -2200 -2100 -2000 -2100 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2200 -2300 -2400 -2500 -2600
[631] -2500 -2400 -2300 -2400 -2300 -2400 -2500 -2600 -2700 -2800 -2900 -3000 -2900 -3000 -3100
[646] -3000 -3100 -3000 -3100 -3000 -3100 -3000 -3100 -3200 -3300 -3200 -3100 -3200 -3300 -3400
[661] -3300 -3400 -3300 -3400 -3500 -3400 -3500 -3600 -3700 -3600 -3700 -3600 -3700 -3600 -3500
[676] -3600 -3500 -3600 -3500 -3400 -3500 -3600 -3500 -3600 -3700 -3800 -3900 -4000 -3900 -4000
[691] -4100 -4000 -4100 -4000 -4100 -4000 -4100 -4000 -3900 -3800 -3900 -3800 -3700 -3800 -3900
[706] -4000 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4100 -4200
[721] -4300 -4200 -4100 -4000 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4000 -3900 -3800 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4000 -4100
[736] -4200 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4400
[751] -4300 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4000 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4500
[766] -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4900 -5000
[781] -5100 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4900
[796] -4800 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4900 -4800 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5000
[811] -5100 -5200 -5100 -5000 -5100 -5000 -4900 -5000 -4900 -5000 -4900 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4700
[826] -4800 -4900 -5000 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5000 -4900 -5000 -4900 -5000
[841] -5100 -5200 -5100 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5300
[856] -5400 -5500 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200
[871] -5100 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4300
[886] -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600
[901] -4700 -4800 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5000 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5000 -5100
[916] -5000 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800
[931] -4900 -5000 -5100 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5200 -5300
[946] -5400 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5600
[961] -5500 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4700
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[3586] -200 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 -600 -700 -600 -700 -600 -700 -800
[3601] -900 -1000 -900 -800 -700 -800 -900 -1000 -900 -800 -900 -800 -700 -800 -900
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[3766] -200 -300 -200 -100 0 -100 0 100 0 100 0 -100 0 -100 -200
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[3796] -200 -100 0 -100 0 100 0 100 200 100 200 100 200 100 200
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[3901] -700 -600 -500 -600 -500 -400 -300 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 -100 0 100
[3916] 200 100 200 300 200 100 200 100 0 100 200 100 200 300 400
[3931] 500 600 700 800 700 600 500 400 500 600 700 600 700 600 700
[3946] 600 700 800 700 600 700 600 500 400 300 400 500 400 500 600
[3961] 500 600 700 800 700 800 700 600 700 800 900 800 900 1000 900
[3976] 800 700 600 500 600 500 600 500 600 700 800 900 800 900 1000
[3991] 1100 1000 1100 1200 1100 1200 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1400 1500 1400 1500
[4006] 1600 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1400
[4021] 1500 1400 1500 1600 1500 1400 1300 1400 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1200 1100
[4036] 1000 1100 1000 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 500 400 500 600
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[4216] -2200 -2100 -2000 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2400 -2300
>
so you would be down -$2,300, I know that most traders that are aspiring to make money of the market, and are taking so much time to learn as well as experience traders that have been making money or have been trying to be successful for a long time will get a visceral reaction to the suggestion of randomness as if they believe the market was random we are all wasting our time.
do not dismiss the null hypothesis on unfounded beliefs or feelings even if it is insulting to you.
how do you know your patterns actually work? via statistical probability? some say it works on x but not on Y condition, you must be very discretionary as not all conditions are the same...well then i claim your patterns bring no edge per se.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
simple random coin flip could generate large trends, what if this is what actually happening at the equity in our trading accounts? untill someone shows a magic TA pattern with statistical edge by itself but I didn't see any.
if you have a gaussian distribution of random traded accounts you should always have large drawdown and large growth at the extremes of the curve and could fit the definition of the 2-5% who have a mid and sometimes long term positive equity as the n standard deviation
market makers have the real edge, they earn the spread and the spread covers their risk, they don't care if price goes up or down because they earn money in both cases.
if you have a gaussian distribution of random traded accounts you should always have large drawdown and large growth at the extremes of the curve and could fit the definition of the 2-5% who have a mid and sometimes long term positive equity as the n standard deviation
market makers have the real edge, they earn the spread and the spread covers their risk, they don't care if price goes up or down because they earn money in both cases.