DislikedHi AWS, do you have any report about gold and silver perspective after the FED minutes release? thanksIgnored
Looking for Death Cross and Golden Cross indicators 4 replies
Rsi cross indicator? (NOT cross 50, etc) 44 replies
Whats the point of applying Technical Analysis to cross pairs?? 4 replies
Royal Cross/Fresh Cross 7 replies
COT analysis on cross pairs 5 replies
DislikedLooking at the Eurodollar term structure is always interesting, especially after the FOMC minutes where U5 ticked up about 8 points. we see the current termstructure pointing to a 3M USD LIBOR at 2% at the end of 2016... this is contrast to the fed's "dots" which approximately see the rate being 50bps higher (assuming the libor-ois spreads hold). So assuming the Fed stays on the current path, the market is undershooting the fed by 50bps or so. I think that this can transfer into a higher US rates in H2 as the market catches on to the fact that the...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Assuming market will pick this up as per assumption, what will be the most profitable instruments to invest in from now? US Bonds?Ignored
Disliked{quote} One possible play is a bull flattener of the US yield curve... but in all honesty. Us bonds will probably be quite sluggish either way due to the disinflationary environment and Jap/Chinese underlying bid... In FX space, something like AUDUSD would be a good candidate to sell. GBPUSD the worse to sell, but probably will still weaken.Ignored
DislikedUSDCAD an interesting one today... big move higher as macro CAD longs being stopped out / liquidating their longsIgnored
Disliked{quote} I am aware of that... my shop was one that predicted a weaker number, just not this weak!Ignored
Disliked{quote} 40 is better than none plus lots of short covering post Europe close, ldn/eu desks may reverse that come monday/tuesday.Ignored
Disliked{quote} I speculated won't be that easy to take out 1.070 but was obviously wrong. As per your chart above, did you mean the rate should be at 1.12x or the spread to converge with the rate? {image}Ignored
DislikedHere... VERY quick model for the USDCAD based upon interest rate spreads etc. Fair value ~= 1.0960. (but +/- 50 pips imo, not many filters on this model) Thats therefore my medium term target. {image} {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} Thanks. The reason I asked was you said London/Euro desks may reverse that Mon Tue ....... I also have doubt to short USDCAD and EURCAD looking at the movement todayIgnored
Disliked{quote} I only said that because they the dealers might have gone into the weekend net short due to size of move, and won't like the gap between them leaving their desk and where it will be coming 7am monday... nothing much tho, maybe 10-20 points.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Are they all manual without algo handling this kind of situation?Ignored
Disliked{quote} the vast majority of market making is of course algo based... but the dealers will still run some inventory risk and especially as majority of eFX volume will be routed through NY once LDN desks go home, the LDN traders books may not be up to date come the monday LDN open... Hence potential for re-jigging. Alternatively, the bank will have made arrangements with APAC or NY desks to sort this shit out before LDN returns, but its not always the case. (at least not with interest rates where the majority of liquidity is during LDN hours.)Ignored