Hi all,
I am in the process of starting a website to teach people how to trade based on a combination of fundamental and technical analysis and offer more experienced traders a community of like-minded people to share information and ideas with.
I just want to say upfront, as I expect this will come up, I am not here to cast myself as an expert or a teacher. As you will read further down, I think success is about constant learning and change. I can offer a great deal of experience to new traders but I am not here to sell guaranteed success or riches. I don't know whether my way of trading will work for you, I am not selling a shortcut.
At the moment, I am offering access to this website for free. I need to build up all the systems and get everything working properly so I need some guinea pigs. If you would be interested in this, PM me (I am not quite sure if this is working properly as I am a new member, if it doesn't just post up your e-mail or something).
Anyway, onto the interesting stuff...
My background is in financial markets and I "came up" with this way of trading observing how people make money and why across a range of markets. I think this is the best way to succeed in anything; look at what the most successful people are doing and copy them. The conclusion that I reached was that no system works all the time.
I am not sure how controversial this idea is but it is worth briefly exploring this: why don't systems work? The short answer is that trading a system is like forcing a square peg into a round hole. The longer answer is that trading a system is like forcing a square peg into a hole that changes shape and size constantly.
The market is made up of a wide variety of actors. The movements of the market represents the decisions of real people. People who constantly change their ideas and beliefs, who have to face tremendous uncertainty every day, and will sometimes do weird stuff that doesn't make sense. This constant change cannot accommodate the rigid automation of a system.
But aren't some people successful trading systems? Yes, very...however, the people who are successfully trading systems change with the market. Their success isn't based on their ability to just stick to something day in and day out, their success comes from their ability to refine and adapt their system to market conditions.
The obsession that new traders have with a system is dangerous and represents a serious, but understandable, misconception about markets. The misconception at the bottom of all is that there is a secret "truth" about markets, some people know what is about to happen before it happens. Having been around people investing large sums of money when stuff goes wrong, I have no doubt that this view is wrong. Professionals have the same information as you, they make mistakes like you, and they go for months or longer without making money just like you do.
A system is something that is very tangible for new traders to grab onto in the bewildering cacophony of markets but that is all it is, something to grab onto in a confusing world. The fact is that most people can't handle taking risks, they can't handle being wrong, and they can't handle uncertainty. Systems pander to all these needs, I don't see any purpose for them beyond providing comfort.
So how do you actually make money? Unsurprisingly, there is no arcane secret technique. It is just basic common sense that you have read over and over in interviews in the Drobny books or wherever: a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Most traders are, rightly, wary of this approach. There are no answers, everything is imprecise and everything is uncertain. You have to be willing to be flexible and need a great deal of self-control. Most people will find this difficult; they need to trade constantly and they can't cope with a few consecutive losing months. It also may seem like the only way to be successful this way is to predict economic trends better than anyone else. As we go along, it will be clear that this isn't true. This method is about controlling risk well and trying to use fundamental analysis to work out where the trends are and where the ranges are. It is possible to make money and still be wrong on fundamentals trading this way, if you control risk well.
Anyway, this is my offer. I am not offering riches or guaranteed success. I am offering a place for people to learn about how to trade this way, a place to share ideas, and a place to help you keep improving. I have been posting on BabyPips so I am just going to jump into the middle of where I have got on that thread.
I am in the process of starting a website to teach people how to trade based on a combination of fundamental and technical analysis and offer more experienced traders a community of like-minded people to share information and ideas with.
I just want to say upfront, as I expect this will come up, I am not here to cast myself as an expert or a teacher. As you will read further down, I think success is about constant learning and change. I can offer a great deal of experience to new traders but I am not here to sell guaranteed success or riches. I don't know whether my way of trading will work for you, I am not selling a shortcut.
At the moment, I am offering access to this website for free. I need to build up all the systems and get everything working properly so I need some guinea pigs. If you would be interested in this, PM me (I am not quite sure if this is working properly as I am a new member, if it doesn't just post up your e-mail or something).
Anyway, onto the interesting stuff...
My background is in financial markets and I "came up" with this way of trading observing how people make money and why across a range of markets. I think this is the best way to succeed in anything; look at what the most successful people are doing and copy them. The conclusion that I reached was that no system works all the time.
I am not sure how controversial this idea is but it is worth briefly exploring this: why don't systems work? The short answer is that trading a system is like forcing a square peg into a round hole. The longer answer is that trading a system is like forcing a square peg into a hole that changes shape and size constantly.
The market is made up of a wide variety of actors. The movements of the market represents the decisions of real people. People who constantly change their ideas and beliefs, who have to face tremendous uncertainty every day, and will sometimes do weird stuff that doesn't make sense. This constant change cannot accommodate the rigid automation of a system.
But aren't some people successful trading systems? Yes, very...however, the people who are successfully trading systems change with the market. Their success isn't based on their ability to just stick to something day in and day out, their success comes from their ability to refine and adapt their system to market conditions.
The obsession that new traders have with a system is dangerous and represents a serious, but understandable, misconception about markets. The misconception at the bottom of all is that there is a secret "truth" about markets, some people know what is about to happen before it happens. Having been around people investing large sums of money when stuff goes wrong, I have no doubt that this view is wrong. Professionals have the same information as you, they make mistakes like you, and they go for months or longer without making money just like you do.
A system is something that is very tangible for new traders to grab onto in the bewildering cacophony of markets but that is all it is, something to grab onto in a confusing world. The fact is that most people can't handle taking risks, they can't handle being wrong, and they can't handle uncertainty. Systems pander to all these needs, I don't see any purpose for them beyond providing comfort.
So how do you actually make money? Unsurprisingly, there is no arcane secret technique. It is just basic common sense that you have read over and over in interviews in the Drobny books or wherever: a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Most traders are, rightly, wary of this approach. There are no answers, everything is imprecise and everything is uncertain. You have to be willing to be flexible and need a great deal of self-control. Most people will find this difficult; they need to trade constantly and they can't cope with a few consecutive losing months. It also may seem like the only way to be successful this way is to predict economic trends better than anyone else. As we go along, it will be clear that this isn't true. This method is about controlling risk well and trying to use fundamental analysis to work out where the trends are and where the ranges are. It is possible to make money and still be wrong on fundamentals trading this way, if you control risk well.
Anyway, this is my offer. I am not offering riches or guaranteed success. I am offering a place for people to learn about how to trade this way, a place to share ideas, and a place to help you keep improving. I have been posting on BabyPips so I am just going to jump into the middle of where I have got on that thread.