DislikedThe Trap of Probability DAD: Son, if you toss a fair coin the probability that you will get 5/10 tails is 0.5. SON: Cool dad!!! ------ Later that day: The boy bought a new fair-coin and a new gun!!! BOY: I am going to test my daddy's theory. I will toss this coin 20 times and If I do not get even a single head -I will kill myself! -- -- Later later that evening: He got 20 tails!!! HE KILLED HIMSELF!!!Ignored
So the moral of the story is don't rely on probabilities. Use proper Risk management!
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made