just changed my mind....bought back the 96.50s at a $200 loss per contract and sold 97.50s....equal #
feel safer that way
feel safer that way
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Dislikedwatching gold and thinking about a long Feb strangle, say $130c/$107p - $0.87/$1.07 - $1.95 net debit. About a $8 move either way would break me even in December. I'd be selling puts & calls against the long numbers in Dec and Jan. If I bought here at around gold=$1,240, ideally I would ride the puts back down to gold<$1,150 (GLD<$115) and look for a good profit on them, then gold would bounce into the New Year, toward $1,300 or better. {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} watching small gold bounce action, looking for cheaper Feb putsIgnored
Disliked{quote} you'd expect NUGT and GLD to be strongly positively correlated, right? .... Right.Ignored
Disliked{quote} So, at gold < $1,150, GLD < $115, NUGT < $19, and DUST > $80. How to trade it?Ignored
Disliked{quote} id be very surprised if it hits 98-99 by the time Jan exp comes on 12/16.... I really think it will continue to follow this trend down and setting lower highs off of the 100 day MA on the 4hr chart. really good place for entries and exits IMO. check it out. either way I just don't trust it as far as I could throw a barrel of it.Ignored
Dislikedmorning pipple. how you doin? say, do you model your options trades? I mean, do you have off the shelf or proprietary software that you use to analyze prospective and running positions? That was something I was just about to dive into, set that up in Excel...Ignored
Disliked{quote} So? You think gold is gonna keep going down? Headed below 2013's low of ~$1,150? (6/28/13 GLD dipped to $115.22, same day NUGT dipped to $4.65 - that was before NUGT 4x rev split and DUST 2x forward split, so comparable to NUGT=$18.60, and DUST=($159.53/2) = $79.77) So, at gold < $1,150, GLD < $115, NUGT < $19, and DUST > $80. How to trade it?Ignored
DislikedGods honest truth.....90% of my analysis on my running/prospective positions is done using the greeks, a chart, a calculator, pen and paper. I try to set up just about every possible move I would be forced to choose to do beforehand, and when I post something like..."considering doing this or that"....I have already written that down days earlier when I entered the previous trade. I change the premiums of the rollable options on a daily (sometimes hourly) basis so that I know how many I need and at what price....its more work....but it allows me...Ignored
Disliked{quote} I really think gold is gonna keep dropping.....I think were gonna be in the 11s soon......sucks the margin is so much per option on the commodity itself.....I would love to so a call heavy strangle on the next bounce upIgnored
Disliked{quote} cool, thanks, pipple. As I get more into complex strategies I think I need to get a lot more precise about how I enter trades and plan their management and it will be helpful to have good tools to do that. I think I will end up writing things for myself but I also have thought about using some open source code to get me started. I only recently started looking for the latter and this caught my eye. http://windale.com/optionsx.php I am not planning on taking myself and my instinct out of the mix, just trying to flesh out my approach...Ignored
Dislikedlet me ask you this......throw the prob tool out for a sec.....if you were going to initiate a strangle (sell) like I do on one of your stocks/etfs......how far from exp would you think off the top of your head would be the "sweet spot"???Ignored
Dislikedlet me ask you this......throw the prob tool out for a sec.....if you were going to initiate a strangle (sell) like I do on one of your stocks/etfs......how far from exp would you think off the top of your head would be the "sweet spot"??? I bet if you stay consistent with that you could change your trading a touch. it gets boring doing the same approach week after week month after month.....but the profit is worth it.Ignored
Disliked{quote} If you initiate a strangle on a single stock always do it a week after its earnings, let all the IV drop and go no longer than 2 months out after that you are heading into another quarter of earnings and the Greeks will change and align. Index EtfS for me are better initiated after FOMC even then I be checking on charts to see if its worth it. Like I've said before I don't do them but I still watch a strategy like that for reference, on something like indexes I always watch FOMC and its minutes for me that is the only data that can change...Ignored