This weekend if you find yourself bored start working on a thesis trade for fed September meeting? If you only scalp or take 20 here and there this might not be for you. But for the ones sitting in the middle of this consolidation as we approach the anticipated fed tapering or not consider these questions in your analysis
first is it likely the fed will taper next month? If you believe yes start checking CFTC.gov bank participation reports and the COTreport and look to see of bias is shifting again for the dollar
will a correlation play take hold again which would see dollar rise and AUD fall on an almost symmetrical basis?
overlap /dx and AUD futures and put up correlation and beta to see if that relationship comes back online
consider this also it's very likely RBA will cut rates Once more at the end of the year with the negative bias on rates iAustralia and the rising bias of higher rates in EU US CAD the interest lay will further breakdown on AUD. not to mention there is nothing mor attractive in currency investing than a rising RER and rising interest rates or at least the perception of rates rising
first is it likely the fed will taper next month? If you believe yes start checking CFTC.gov bank participation reports and the COTreport and look to see of bias is shifting again for the dollar
will a correlation play take hold again which would see dollar rise and AUD fall on an almost symmetrical basis?
overlap /dx and AUD futures and put up correlation and beta to see if that relationship comes back online
consider this also it's very likely RBA will cut rates Once more at the end of the year with the negative bias on rates iAustralia and the rising bias of higher rates in EU US CAD the interest lay will further breakdown on AUD. not to mention there is nothing mor attractive in currency investing than a rising RER and rising interest rates or at least the perception of rates rising