DislikedCindy, I`m curious about your thoughts.........would you mind to give a different perspective here?
appreciate it.Ignored
he probably is referring to the mean reverting tendency of currencies.
so If a big move is present odds are that it will correct as opposed to some stocks that pick up steam.
I did a study from inception the lambda for any given move is 2
(l^k)*(e^-l)/factorial(k)
will give you the probability density and cumulative function of K.
in plain english.... every leg moves up an average of 2 days before correcting (the key word is AVERAGE) the further the move is away from the average the more probability of correcting
i.e if the euro has moved up 4 days (to be more clear, has had EXACTLY 4 negative days (no positive days in between)) then that should encompass 94.73% of observations as to have 5.27% probability of continuation....basically is bound to post a positive day.
again probability here...even .01% has .01% probability of occurring as an outlier.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM