This isn't a complete system. I've abandoned it since I've got all the information I needed out of it, seems like a bit of a waste to keep it to myself (not that it's a massive secret or holy grail or whatever).
When price crosses over 200 SMA and then a retracement is made that does not touch or cross the 200 SMA again there's a 70% chance (99,7% confidence 141 trades, 114 profit) of price making a new peak before dropping below the low of the retracement. It's basicly a trend signal.
The problems here are defining the retracement (Exactly what is the bottom?) and secondly (in trying to fix problem 1) an R:R that gives enough return. I think it's only of any real profit when traded at 15M-1H.
Let me know if this ends up being of any help to anyone. I realize the information is rather thin, but it did take me a week to collect by hand so it might save someone time thinking of any systems based around 200 SMA. Simple crossovers whipsawed way too much, this simple addition prevents whipsaws and gives a clear edge.
When price crosses over 200 SMA and then a retracement is made that does not touch or cross the 200 SMA again there's a 70% chance (99,7% confidence 141 trades, 114 profit) of price making a new peak before dropping below the low of the retracement. It's basicly a trend signal.
The problems here are defining the retracement (Exactly what is the bottom?) and secondly (in trying to fix problem 1) an R:R that gives enough return. I think it's only of any real profit when traded at 15M-1H.
Let me know if this ends up being of any help to anyone. I realize the information is rather thin, but it did take me a week to collect by hand so it might save someone time thinking of any systems based around 200 SMA. Simple crossovers whipsawed way too much, this simple addition prevents whipsaws and gives a clear edge.