Before delving further into this material.
Let us think of a simple experiment.
1) Enter market at random moments
2) Set TP+10 pips, SL-10 pips
3) Succes chance p is hitting the TP
In case of no spread random markets, we could expect the proportion of our trades to hit the TP to be 50%, hence p = .5.
Can anyone link me to a simple study like this with below hypothesis?
H0: p = .5 Ha: p =/ .5 with alpha confidence .05 and a sample size of 25 trades of above mentioned criteria?
Or how could I go about and do it myself?
Certainly for automated trading systems, this is the absolute basis. From here you could look:
- What if we only took trades with direction of 200MA?, make same hypothesis but now is p > .5?
- What is the influence of profit factor?
- What is the influence of spread relative to TP/SL?
ahh anyways, just woken up and this study idea came to mind.
Let us think of a simple experiment.
1) Enter market at random moments
2) Set TP+10 pips, SL-10 pips
3) Succes chance p is hitting the TP
In case of no spread random markets, we could expect the proportion of our trades to hit the TP to be 50%, hence p = .5.
Can anyone link me to a simple study like this with below hypothesis?
H0: p = .5 Ha: p =/ .5 with alpha confidence .05 and a sample size of 25 trades of above mentioned criteria?
Or how could I go about and do it myself?
Certainly for automated trading systems, this is the absolute basis. From here you could look:
- What if we only took trades with direction of 200MA?, make same hypothesis but now is p > .5?
- What is the influence of profit factor?
- What is the influence of spread relative to TP/SL?
ahh anyways, just woken up and this study idea came to mind.