Good day, Everybody.
Anyone have any idea what happened to MGino?
Anyone have any idea what happened to MGino?
EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies
DislikedMy thinking exactly. Except that I would probably string it out for as long as I could. Which in this case should be about 4-5 months. Which if you think about it, is exactly what he has done on previous occasions.Ignored
Disliked...at the risk of putting the Fed's credibility in question.
Consider that:
1. The Fed's mandate is inflation at or below 2% and maximum employment in a context of price stability. (Inflation is key)
2. QE3 was less effective than QE2 which was less effective than QE1. How effective would QE4 be other than preventing the markets from going through a necessary correction? Without a healthy market correction, everyone will hold off in anticipation of it.
3. The equity markets are not reflecting the real economy = bubble.
4. The extra liquidity...Ignored
Dislikedyeah, but keep in mind that if there's anything Ben does best it's surprising the markets.Ignored
DislikedThe success or failure of QE is requires setting criterion. As I see it, QE has done a number of things:
1. recapitalize the banks. With all the money that the fed has pumped in to the system, American banks are no longer in danger of anything except getting bloated.
2. fight deflation. Well, that is not happening now or any time soon.
3. make American goods more competitive by devaluing the dollar. it is a fight but it is clear that the Feds efforts are making a difference
4. hurt currency manipulators such as China with dangerously...Ignored
DislikedGood day, Everybody.
Anyone have any idea what happened to MGino?Ignored
DislikedSure... You're absolutely correct. It has certainly done all that, but it did it in QE1 and QE2 only. What did QE3 do and what will QE3.5/4.0 do?
ADD: The bar has been set very high now, so anything less than a net expansion of policy will see equities fall and USD rally.Ignored
DislikedSure... You're absolutely correct. It has certainly done all that, but it did it in QE1 and QE2 only. What did QE3 do and what will QE3.5/4.0 do?
ADD: The bar has been set very high now, so anything less than a net expansion of policy will see equities fall and USD rally.Ignored
DislikedHe was suspended and many of his posts extracted. Could be criticizing other traders.Ignored
DislikedNope. I checked his historical posts and there is no misbehavior at all. Also his extracted posts are his econometric reports.
Obviously somebody didn't like his reports for some reason. I have no clue why this has happened.
Hopefully he'll be back soon.Ignored
DislikedThe success or failure of QE is requires setting criterion. As I see it, QE has done a number of things:
1. recapitalize the banks. With all the money that the fed has pumped in to the system, American banks are no longer in danger of anything except getting bloated.Ignored
Disliked2. fight deflation. Well, that is not happening now or any time soon.Ignored
Disliked3. make American goods more competitive by devaluing the dollar. it is a fight but it is clear that the Feds efforts are making a differenceIgnored
DislikedGiven the current economic AND debt environment in the U.S. and in the whole world, would a deflation really be a bad thing ? Who's it gonna benefit when price increases run ahead of economic improvement ?Ignored
Disliked
How in the hell can a QE be a positive sum for the economy in the end when AT SOME POINT in the future you need to withdraw that excess liquidity ? Especially in the belt-tightening environment which we are going to witness in the future through spending cuts etc. etc. ? When will we accept the lower levels of growth ??Ignored
DislikedWhy not do the QE until dollar hits 2 per euro then ? A weaker currency means better competitiveness, doesn't it ? I'm sorry but i freaking hate that competitivness argument ...that's a big bunch of BS. A weaker currency comes at the expense of a stronger currency of your counterparty...tell me which of those couterparties will just looove a stronger currency in today's environment?? We already have a massive currency war going on started by the FED and the FED must put an end to it and accept a market price.Ignored
Disliked... If they could get it to 2 per euro they would. However, as you say, it is a war. The other side(s) are fighting back. As for the currency war "started by the Fed" ... I am not sure who started it but I suspect it was the Asian economies desiring to sell cheaper goods to the US while creating barriers to US goods in their own domestic economies.Ignored
DislikedHi all
Ken, does it mean that EU shoud go 1.32** from your point of view?Ignored
DislikedIf the US has a 16 trillion dollar debt and the nominal GDP falls by 20% because of deflation while the real GDP remains constant, the effective debt is 25% greater AND the US has less money to pay back the debt because revenues have fallen. So deflation increases the real debt while simultaneously decreasing the ability to pay off this debt.
This is exactly like a guy with a 200K loan on a house that is now worth 150K and a salary cut by 20%. It is not a pretty picture. And it gets worse as further reductions in equity and salary are reasonable...Ignored
DislikedLet's not throw all the Asians in one basket. It was China... plain and simple.Ignored