DislikedHey all, I just posted up an article on the euro and why a bullish move won't surprise me much.... here's a link. Comment as you see fit...
http://currencytraderx.wordpress.com/
Comment here, or once at the article itself... here is probably best for a deeper more productive "flaw finding" session tho.
XIgnored
The one area where I have teh biggest disagreement with you is that Greece will leave the Euro and not because they want to but they will be forced to after the June 17th elections.
You see it doesn't matter if Greece installs a 'pro-austerity' party or a 'pro-bailout' governement. There is so much debt their government will never be able to get out of debt.
The other thing to consider is this - with over 60% of all Greek people receivng some form of government assistance what happens on July 1, 2012 when the Government has no more money? The bond market isn't going to fork over any more money; the ECB is a toothless Bumble; the IMF doesn't have enough reserves to bail Greece out and the US won't be able to touch the European situation without starting protests here.
Now imagine the vision of Greek people rioting in the streets because they have no Euro's to spend. How long before the Spanish, Italian and Irish peoples make a run on their banks?
The other thing to consider is this - who needs or wants Euro's? All commodities are priced in dollars, the most traded/used is oil and it's priced in dollars/barrell.
If there is a "hint" of EU breaking up what do you think SNB is going to do with all those Euros that they bought in May to protect the Swiss?
Finally what happens to all the banks/hedge funds and other people who own Greece debt? If Greece leaves the Euro do you really think that they will have any intention of paying back that debt? No way. So what happens to all the banks that now have to write off those debts? Imagine their balance sheets when it is revealed that these banks have already been counting on receiving 10% interest for their Greek debt?
I could go on with other reasons WHY the Euro will continue it's slide: from EW counts (which I predict we are in wave 3 - still) to fundamental weaknesses, however I'll let others jump in...
...because you never know - until you do!