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Just noticing patterns. TA is all about noticing patterns and trading around them. Trendlines, candle formations are nothing but patterns that have shown in the past that the PA will most likely go in a certain direction. So I'm playing this pattern today. My target is only about 40 to 50 points (or more based on the velocity of the expected move).
Never the less, my SL is a tight one because of the perceived 'capitulation' you've mention
Cheers.
I observe your reality but live my own.