In a zero-sum game the edge is traders ability to exploit market inefficiencies better then other market participants. Study as much as you can about this market and find your ways to make money.
An Edge for an Edge (System Development) 113 replies
What do you thing is your edge? 5 replies
Improving Your Trading Performance: The Single Most Important Step You Can Take 13 replies
The most simple thing you could ever do. 0 replies
The most difficult thing? 20 replies
DislikedOnly Requirement: you need to have a well developed understanding of price action and a mature traders mindset.
makingpipsIgnored
DislikedIf you just say it without providing some proof i simply dont beleive you. No offense but ive heard too many of such "sucessfull traders" yet none of them could justify the claims.
Wrong. I never ever used TA in my life.It never made sense to me becouse many different traders can see different pattern and when someone sees buy signal other see sell. Only reason why TA can work is if everyone is seeing the same pattern on same time frame but even than big banks come in and disurb everything. A lagging indicators alone simply cannot predict...Ignored
DislikedWouldnt it be much better to use some extra clues here? Like COT data, market profile, ticks data(for stocks), volume? Sth that actually makes sensible predictions. Trading price action alone can hardly provide any edge.
Where do you base your logic at? Repeatable patterns?Ignored
Disliked1)market makers have an edge in the way that they manupulate the market but we cannot do that as we are not liquid enough
but is there a way to spot manipulation ,via PA perhaps?
2)algoritmic trading has an edge in knowing about orders before they hit the floor but we cannot do that
i dont think they see orders before they hit,but they can seek big orders by for example shooting small orders in the market step by step and watch how fast they get filled etc... again can this be spot via PA+VOL ?
3)company CEO have an edge in knowing data upfront as well but we cannot do that
can insider trading be spotted? as they have to buy or sell dont they ?
my answer yes such things can be spotted via PA alone, is it easy? no! takes time ,practice and a market understanding..Ignored
DislikedHi,
thx for your post. I complety agree with you. Random patterns in charts are completly arbitrary.
You said " Certain times of day consistently have higher volatility than other times as just one example."
Yes, this is the kind of edge, but it needs to be exploited in the right way.
I just watched a video of some broker analyist saying that currencies statistically make high of the week and low of the week on mondays and fridays. This can also be used as an edge. Rarely it happens in mid-week.
I forgot to mention currencies arbitrage....Ignored
DislikedWouldnt it be much better to use some extra clues here? Like COT data, market profile, ticks data(for stocks), volume? Sth that actually makes sensible predictions. Trading price action alone can hardly provide any edge.
Where do you base your logic at? Repeatable patterns?Ignored
DislikedTo proove the point. If u have an argument than in order to support it you need to provide some proof. Otherwise you cannot argue that u have magic strategy when you dont even know why it should work.
All of us that make living from trading dont have to go to work. But thats not a sucess we are talking about here.
Sucess in trading means making more profit than loss. Offcourse in the long term. Being in positive balance.Ignored
Dislikedif high does not extend when market has opportunity to push higher.
It must move lower than 14150 and then 14100 to progress a decline. If it cannot do that it will rise again to try and extend its high. The high must extend higher than 14232 and 14250+ to progress higher. If it cannot do that then the decline off still needs to develop lower than 14150 to progress. And so on.Ignored
QuoteDislikednot sure what COT is.
QuoteDislikedTo get PA under your belt you need to study what the markets actually do. And when you know that........you have your edge.
QuoteDislikedYour attitude towards trading will keep you from being successful.
QuoteDislikedIt's like me saying "there is no such thing as nuclear power!" because I'm not a physicist and don't know how it's made.
QuoteDislikedI just don't want new traders to come read this type of stuff that discourages and doesn't offer anything useful.
DislikedThese stats are from a simple mechanical tech system......... but few have the patience, read DISCIPLINE to follow through.... even I break my rules occasionally.........Ignored
DislikedYou see this is the problem. Nothing MUST happen. You are saying that "If this happens than that will happen if not than it will go other way." Basically....if if if...no clear sense of what might happen.
Perhaps I should have more specfic. If the HIGH does not extend and given the LH at 14229 15.29 then market is obligated let's say to head in at least direction of 14150.
So I do know it will head in direction of 14150 at least........so not an IF.
Who can trade on IFs and BUTs. PA is highly predictive. You can know in advance where the market...Ignored
DislikedSo where excatly is an edge in some trading system? Is there anything that can be said to have definite 60% + edge?Ignored
DislikedYes but u can see nuclear weapons, LHC experiment and so on... but i have yet to see a long term profitable TA trader.
Nice equity curve! There is only one problem. 7 months of data on ONLY 36 trades are not big sample size to be called long term profitable strategy.Ignored
DislikedHave you ever seen a spy? Do spies exist? The nature of a spy makes it so you wouldn't normal meet them or know they are spies. It is the same with profitable traders. They aren't going to come show you their statements. Your logic on this is flawed, you don't have enough data to claim "technical analysis doesn't work!"
How many trades would you need have a good enough sample size?
If you are trying to gain information that's great. Your first post comes across as someone trying to start an argument or disclaim TA because it doesn't work...Ignored
DislikedHave you ever seen a spy? Do spies exist? The nature of a spy makes it so you wouldn't normal meet them or know they are spies.Ignored
QuoteDislikedHow many trades would you need have a good enough sample size?
You can argue about this all day, but in the end people making money will keep making money, whether you "believe" in them or not.
QuoteDislikedIf all you see is the cup half empty you are doomed from the start.