DislikedActually the USD Index and USD/RUB do not have any strong correlation long term. It is Oil that prevail. Correlation table here: {image}Ignored
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
USD/RUB 6 replies
Rub's accountability 184 replies
Which brokers pay big swap for USD/RUB short position? 8 replies
Shorting Eur/Rub 3 replies
Reliable broker for USD/RUB 26 replies
DislikedActually the USD Index and USD/RUB do not have any strong correlation long term. It is Oil that prevail. Correlation table here: {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} Thanks for that. Something that strikes me in a negative way is all these correlations I see here, because it just seems that RUB is in the basket with "exotic" currencies that all move in tandem although they have vastly different fundamentals...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Yes, I actually was surprised that USD Index was not stronger correlated with USDRUB . I been using this correlation table for long time. But just today added USD Index to it. ( My broker Pepperstone started to give feed for USD Index just recently, actually shortly after I was asking for it ) That Nok is correlated is understandable. But that Zar is strongly correlated I do not understand the reason for ( since it is not the USD Index that prevail in the movements in these instruments ) Actually I think some of the reason is that eurusd...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Good points, I had the same thoughts. I have personally seen that USD Index has greater correlation with USD/RUB but as you say EUR might be weighing on USD Index. Btw as you pointed out this is a nice level for short USD/RUB. But this is a short for people with balls as this is a dangerous week.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Yes, I actually was surprised that USD Index was not stronger correlated with USDRUB . I been using this correlation table for long time. But just today added USD Index to it. ( My broker Pepperstone started to give feed for USD Index just recently, actually shortly after I was asking for it ) That Nok is correlated is understandable. But that Zar is strongly correlated I do not understand the reason for ( since it is not the USD Index that prevail in the movements in these instruments ) Actually I think some of the reason is that eurusd...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Another thing as you point out is that some correlations make sense because they are oil based economies but others dont. Like USD/ZAR... And I have seen the pairs moving vastly differently so it is difficult to understand the results in your table.Ignored
Disliked{quote} . I added now at 66.04 . And are in with 40% of my regular position for USDRUB. Average price is 64.7 If oil will continue rally and break out the support I will hedge with shorts Oil to keep DD lower. Positive swaps for both instruments so it can be good even if oil goes down below 30 level again. Strong sell on oil technical on all higher TF and also fundamental. So currently swimming against the stream. I am comfortable with it and can sit all the way to 30 or 20 and even below with hedging. Also saving bullets for turn in...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Good strategy. To add a couple of points here. On the 4H chart 66.06 is a critical level that we need to watch. If it is broken to the upside it will be the first time since the 9th of March that the pair revisits this MA, when it broke it to the downside. On the daily chart we also have the 100 MA at this level (66.05) so it is quite an interesting level where we are at the moment. Let's see how it plays out. The 2 main forces behind the move is oil and Putin/CB rhetoric which at the moment is contradicting but we will see how it unwinds...Ignored
Disliked{quote} . Also Crude at support at 42.80 that is current handle. So with close below on daily for oil and USD/RUB with close above 66.06 I will start my hedging on retracements and collect the swap.Ignored
DislikedWhat I truly find strange at the moment is the behavior of the equity markets and their correlation with oil...For the past months we had oil going up and equity markets cheering and moving together. At the moment there is a complete disconcert with the two assets...Oil crashing and equity markets cheerful.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Good strategy. To add a couple of points here. On the 4H chart 66.06 is a critical level that we need to watch. If it is broken to the upside it will be the first time since the 9th of March that the pair revisits this MA, when it broke it to the downside. On the daily chart we also have the 100 MA at this level (66.05) so it is quite an interesting level where we are at the moment. Let's see how it plays out. The 2 main forces behind the move is oil and Putin/CB rhetoric which at the moment is contradicting but we will see how it unwinds...Ignored
DislikedI actually think it is a unique situation where the main carry trade of course has positive swap. But that it can be hedged with another instrument like short crude that is 96 % correlated and also the hedge gives positive swap. What more can we dream about?Ignored
Disliked{quote} A final point to mention is a horizontal line that is quite important on the daily chart at 66.73. Remains to be seen if it will be respected.Ignored
Disliked{quote} USD/RUB reached my targets for retracement. I would not like to see a continuation although I acknowledge a potential overshoot to 67.75 is possible without interruption on the weekly chart. Let's seeIgnored
DislikedAt 67.10 USD/RUB reached the 50% retracement of the whole move from 48.90 to 85.XX.Ignored