Interesting thoughts Monroe. I've noticed the same thing with barrier expiry and increased option defense. The recent AUD/USD option barrier @ 1.0500 is a prime example of this. The barrier was defended fiercely by corporate and bank interest if my memory serves correct. The barrier was being hunted by "leverage sellers" I'd assume hedge funds. After repeated failed attempts IFR reports that implied vols were down due to expiry so protection would not be as fierce. After that no one else was reported on the bid aside from real money. The barrier was just pushed aside. And continued lower until mid east demand stepped in @ 1.0445 and ruined the stop hunt for hedge funds.
Cautiously optimistic. . .