in my daily chart i apply 1000sma so from the daily chart we see that the last cross with 1000sma is at 2 april 2006..
so from that date we just open buy?
so from that date we just open buy?
bo7a method... method for GBP/JPY 205 replies
Trend Breakout/Breakdown Method 37 replies
Another London Breakout method 46 replies
Simple Breakout Method 31 replies
Bodger SAR Method 46 replies
DislikedBytebodger write
4) The 1000 SMA shows you the LONG term trend. If the previous day closed above the SMA, you are looking to buy. If the previous day closed below the SMA, you are looking to sell. In other words, you are looking to trade with the (very) long-term trend. GBPUSD is currently above the 1000 SMA, so we will be placing buy orders.
why don't you just open buy and sell (two direction)?
buy is above 55 pips above from open and sell is below 55 pips from open...
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Dislikedin my daily chart i apply 1000sma so from the daily chart we see that the last cross with 1000sma is at 2 april 2006..
so from that date we just open buy?Ignored
DislikedWow, I can't believe it's still loading. Thats a lot of data I guess.Ignored
DislikedWell I ran the testing for GBPJPY from Jun 04. Settings were a Threshold of 10 and a SL of 100 for all 5 orders, all orders closed at 1600 GMT. Bad news, I lost over 11000 pips in 11 months trading this way. I'm not sure if I misinterpreted your testing above, if that 5 month period was just a good run or the data you had was not accurate enough, but I think I can safely say this is a no go.Ignored
DislikedWell, I could post a bunch of numbers here but, in a nutshell, you're right. I went through and started running large-scale backtests against the last 3 years' worth of minute data. I was able to confirm your results on GBPJPY, losing about 11000 pips in the span of a year.
The fact is that one of the previous comments left in this thread was quite prescient. I ran tests against many different pairs and all of them - including GBPJPY - were profitable across the entire 3-year span. However, the system produced some horrific drawdowns and, in the end, the ROI is simply not there. You end up placing thousands of trades over the course of years and in the end you get a return that would have been better realized (and far easier to achieve) if you simply put your money in an ETF.
So without further ado, I think we can put this thread to bed. Sorry for wasting everyone's time with this adventure, but I thought at one time (as recently as a few days ago) that this may be a viable, profitable system. It took several years of real data to reveal the long-term inefficiencies of this approach.Ignored
DislikedWOW! I have to applaud you for searching for the truth. Whether it was in your favor or not. Some things do not work and some do, but recognizing the truth is indeed the most difficult thing... I am impressed..
Thanks for this great thread and the very interesting exploration..Ignored
DislikedI find your volatility breakout system concept refreshing.
I know it is frustrating to trade the way you've chosen, but the odds do favor you. The big moves that inevitably occur make the temporary frustration worthwhile.
I know that your concept does have an edge, but it might be less than most traders might be willing to tolerate considering the potential risks.
Since I also use a volatility breakout system (VBS) on forex, I've found out that the more time you can handle in a profitable trade really tends to improve the risk/reward overall....Ignored