DislikedWe don't. Even after losing 30 trades in a row, we're still only 90% likely to win our next trade. The numbers will never "balance" (i.e. experience 30 losses, but don't expect 270 winners to make up for it), but the larger our sample grows, the more likely it will start to reflect our edge. Over time, those 30 consecutive losses will become a memory.
That said, losing 30 in a row is beyond horribly unlucky, and it's far easier for a 50% system to do it than a 90% system.Ignored
There are two possibilities -
1. It really does have a 90% chance of success and the rarest event ever has happened - i.e. something with a 10% chance of happening (in this case a loss) has just happened 30 times in a row.
Or...
2. It doesn't really have a 90% chance of a successful trade and you just think it does due to curve fitting, not testing it properly, the market changing or whatever.
I'd say option 2 is millions of times more likely to be the actual case
If a roulette wheel came up with the number 27, twenty times in a row what would you think? What a coincidence or the wheel is broken or rigged in some way? If a coin came up heads 200 times in a row would you believe it was a fair coin?