please do not discuss zero-sum until you understand it, and have at least 5 vouches. until then, DO NOT SPEAK ABOUT IT PLEASE!!!
Fibnacci trading..Are U thinking what i'm thinking? 76 replies
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DislikedFutures are easy to understand as zero sum because every contract has both a long and short position holder, but that is by no means a requirement for a market to be zero sum. On a price basis ALL financial markets are zero sum, including stocks, houses, bonds, currencies, etc. You can see it when you examine how profits and losses are distributed across time.
The parts that makes the stock and bond markets positive sum are the dividend and interest coupon payments. Both draw money from non-market participants and distribute it to the owners...Ignored
Dislikedplease do not discuss zero-sum until you understand it, and have at least 5 vouches. until then, DO NOT SPEAK ABOUT IT PLEASE!!!Ignored
DislikedHere might be something along the edge of the box.. Developing a very high probability method that can capture a 'lower' amount of pips on a consistant basis since pip value can be determined upon order size. ie; a 10pip move could be $10 or $1000.
Idk, something I've been wondering since it seems most of us with low initial investment capital are looking to capture large pip moves via greed thus holding on and not taking profit or hoping losers become winners bc low dollar profits on small moves. A con is it won't let winners ride though....Ignored
QuoteDislikedbecause the majority in my opinion do for some reason not comprehend that pip value is more important than pips.. you read a post where someone is talking about making 10 pips and people are like.. well I'd rather get 100 pips.. or a 1000 pips a day lol
QuoteDislikedbut I definitely am starting to favor 80-90% probability even if my risk to reward is not the best.. and a risk to reward of 1:1 is great with 80-90%
Dislikednewyear my previous post was not directed at you, however, this one most-certainly is.
your thinking and emeraldeyes' is absolutely directly in the middle of the box....Ignored
DislikedWhat does it mean to be green to trading?
I don't think you understood my approach.. I am saying.. if I knew of a setup that had a 80-90% chance of moving 10 pips in my favor with 1:1 then I would rather trade that setup over a setup with 50-50% chance of moving in my favor for 1000 pips with 1:1
and my pip examples are clearly for example.. in a real situation it would be a measure of something such as the average range to project take profit and stop loss.
it sounds like your arguing back to what I said about studies of the coin toss strategy...Ignored
Dislikedit all comes down to perspective and the boundaries we impose on the argument. that's why newbies should never utter the words zero-sum, ever. they never define the boundaries of their perspective. some argue relative to their personal account balance, while the opposite are simultaneously arguing a different argument entirely and have the perspective of market participants as a whole. 2 different fights being fought as though they are the same fight... oh the humanity. they don't even realize they aren't arguing about the same topic.Ignored
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Is it the only way? Not at all. I personally have several other metagame views of the market that have lead me to profitable trading methods and I'm sure there are many others out there to be found. The trick is in changing the mindset you use to view the market. To step away from the commonly held beliefs and dig into what truly shapes price activity on a day to day basis.
Luck be with you.Ignored
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No, I think you nailed it brother. I agree on all counts.
The reason I wanted to weigh in on the subject wasn't to start a debate about the zero sum aspect of markets. Clearly, they are zero sum, but that isn't the point. My point was to get people thinking about the implications for the zero sum nature in their trading decisions.
[color=black][font=Verdana]I've been writing extensively on the subject of outside...Ignored
DislikedGreat... I will have to do more research on "Metagaming" totally new word for me thanks to you..
arent you writing a book currently? Sound like you have some great insight into things..Ignored
DislikedYeah, the book I'm writing is basically an expanded treatise on the subject of metagaming and out of the box thinking in trading... which is why I have so much to say on the subject.
Whether it winds up being insightful or not remains to be seen, but I do hold out hope that I'm on the right track.Ignored
DislikedIn Wall Street Warriors series, session I, episode 2 or 3, a very serious guy talks about a trading system based in the patterns of African elephants migration corridors. Anyone knows something more about this?...Ignored
DislikedI am 99% sure the reference you made to sea shells has to do with fractles.. and yes fractles are being applied to the market and in fact work pretty damn well if you look into Bill Williams books about using fractles.. and that guys a millionaire investorIgnored