DislikedCanuck.
What you are proposing is more of a system than a simple definition of trend. I was thinking more of something simple I could add to my existing systems to make them better.
You have definitely given me something to think about.Ignored
If I was to define a trend that was other than a dictionary meaning it would go like this.
In forex a trend is a bunch of traders trading in the one direction. For the most part it is a self fulfilling event.
A trend reveral occurs when those traders either loose confidence in the trend and dump their trades or open trades in the other direction because they think they have seen a reveral signal.
The magnitude of the reversal depends on how many people think they see the same thing to inspire the first uncertainty. If enough uncertainly is created even the big guys get out and that is when a slow reversal turns into a fast one.
A fast reversal slowing as far as I can tell is a matter of most of the actual real buyers for that currency, (Not traders) having satisfied the current requirement for their needs. The traders will continue the trend (simply because there is one) until the next uncertainty.
The probability is not what the market will do but rather what the traders will do given a certain senario.
Defining a past trend is relatively simple but defining the trend continuation is what I am trying to do and it takes more than what just happened in one area.
Feel free to criticize the theory.