Recently I downloaded the history of CABLE for the hourly. I got 3630 figures which work out to be 151 days after I subtracted out new years and Christmas as well as the weekends from the data for non trading days. I did a bunch of IF() functions to see what type of results I would have if I tried to base my trades on certain things. You can probably easily figure out what I did with what I am about to tell you:
Winning/Breaking Even:
I found that 85.5% (+/ - 3.8%) of the time I at least break even with 4 pips. The “potential gain” ranges from 0 to 155 and works almost exponentially from 155 to 0 meaning that the lower values are more likely to happen than the higher values. The average is 19. The median value is 7. This means 50% of the 85.5 are above 7 pips and 50% are below.
Losing:
I found that 14.5% (+/- 3.8%) of the time I lose. Losers range from -1 to -155 with a median value of -10 and an average of -14. I noticed that these loses are also almost exponential growing from high to low Noted by the median value. (Very small large loses, a lot of small loses.)
I concluded that as I attempt to make a profit larger than 0, the odds of winning become less and obviously my losses will rise. I am looking for someone that can help me analyze the data to come up with some sort of money management to take advantage of the range I have given. I’d like to talk through MSN ([email protected]). So if I told you 85.5% of the time, I can at least break even which is about 8% of that. I want to be able to maximize the profits! If you have any questions concerning more percentages, throw your question here. I will check this thread every day.
-Liquid11
Winning/Breaking Even:
I found that 85.5% (+/ - 3.8%) of the time I at least break even with 4 pips. The “potential gain” ranges from 0 to 155 and works almost exponentially from 155 to 0 meaning that the lower values are more likely to happen than the higher values. The average is 19. The median value is 7. This means 50% of the 85.5 are above 7 pips and 50% are below.
Losing:
I found that 14.5% (+/- 3.8%) of the time I lose. Losers range from -1 to -155 with a median value of -10 and an average of -14. I noticed that these loses are also almost exponential growing from high to low Noted by the median value. (Very small large loses, a lot of small loses.)
I concluded that as I attempt to make a profit larger than 0, the odds of winning become less and obviously my losses will rise. I am looking for someone that can help me analyze the data to come up with some sort of money management to take advantage of the range I have given. I’d like to talk through MSN ([email protected]). So if I told you 85.5% of the time, I can at least break even which is about 8% of that. I want to be able to maximize the profits! If you have any questions concerning more percentages, throw your question here. I will check this thread every day.
-Liquid11