Thanks Jason,
Lots of good info on this thread.
Lots of good info on this thread.
FXCM's DailyFX+ to expand & include Forex Stream & Bloomberg TV 10 replies
Anyone use FXCM Dailyfx + ? 3 replies
FXCM Dailyfx commentary as contrarian Indicator?? 30 replies
http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/7...01112528pm.png
http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/144...01113243pm.png
DislikedHi Jason
Does FXCM supply any information as to key FX Option levels and dates?
Thanks
MikeIgnored
http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/5...20111140am.png
The Breakout Opportunities system has just sold EURUSD at 1.35122. The system recommends entering this trade at any price between 1.34717 and 1.35448. The signal was issued because the EURUSD has broken its 24-hour low while our Speculative Sentiment Index was at 1.2284, suggesting that the EURUSD may have further to fall. A stop loss has been set at the 24-hour high of 1.36427 and a profit target has been set at the 1 Day ATR level at 1.33502. The system will move the stop to the next 24-hour high every time that 24-hour high is lower than the previous 24-hour high. Breakout Opportunities is a breakout strategy that aims to catch the significant moves that typically happen when currencies break through technical support or resistance. The SSI Breakout strategy tends to work well in volatile market conditions, generally when the DailyFX Volatility Percentage in a pair is above 75%. The volatility in EURUSD at the time of signal is 77%.
DislikedHi Jason
Thanks for the reply regarding options. I found the link very interesting especially the video of the presentation given by David at the expo.
My next query is regarding the volume data on FXCM charts. I understand that FX is decentralised, so my question is basically what are FXCM's sources of volume data and is this volume mainly indicative of retail activity?
Many thanks
MikeIgnored
http://chart.ly/uploads/rgakht5.png
EURUSD – Trading crowds continue to buy the Euro against the US Dollar, giving contrarian signal that the pair may continue lower through upcoming trade. Last week the majority of retail traders had turned net-long the EURUSD for the first time since the pair traded at the 1.3350 mark. Said shift marked an important turn in market sentiment and suggested that the Euro may continue to set fresh lows through the month of November.
The only caveat to said forecasts is that traders have scaled back their EURUSD long positions overnight. Our SSI ratio stands at 1.03 traders long for every one short—virtually neutral as only 51% of traders are long. Yesterday, the same ratio was at 1.45 as 59% of open positions were long. The number of traders long fell 9.0% overnight yet is 34.3% above levels seen last week. All the while, short positions are 28.4% higher than yesterday yet 2.5% weaker since last week.
The fact that crowds remain net-long gives contrarian signal that the EURUSD may continue lower. Yet the overnight moderation in sentiment waters down our calls for shorter-term losses.
http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_5.png
The Australian Dollar clearly remains an excellent proxy for moves in stock markets, but what if you want to play the Euro without a “risk” component? In a recent interview on CNBC, Robert Sinche, Head of FX Strategy at RBS Securities, said that the EURCAD remains an attractive proxy for all of what’s going on in the Euro Zone.
If you believe that the European fiscal crisis will worsen, you may want to be short EURCAD. The opposite is also true: material (if unlikely) improvements in Euro Zone crises could push the EURCAD higher.
Sometimes the lack of correlation makes a specific trading security attractive. We agree with Mr. Sinche; the EURCAD seems an attractive play on Euro Zone troubles with little exposure to moves in broader financial
markets.
http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_1.png
http://img163.imageshack.us/img163/2...2120111573.png
AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision: December 6 – 03:30 GMT
The Reserve Bank of Australia will hold its December meeting on Tuesday, where it is expected that the rate will be cut to 4.25from 4.50 percent. At the previous board meeting in November, the RBA decided to cut the key rate to 4.50 percent from 4.75 percent, a level that was unchanged since November 2010. According to the Credit Suisse Overnight Index Swaps, there is an 84.0 percent chance of a 25-basis point rate cut at the central bank meeting on Tuesday. Accordingly, 129.0-basis points are being priced out over the next 12-months, in line with the expectation of a rate cut at the coming meeting. Considering expectations for a cut are so heavy, if the RBA does not budge, the Australian Dollar should find some significant support. The rhetoric in the statement following the meeting is vital.
GBP Bank of England Rate Decision: December 8 – 12:00 GMT
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to maintain its key benchmark rate at 0.50 percent at its meeting on Thursday, the same rate held since March 2009. The primary underlying reasonto maintain the rate continues to be the Monetary Policy Committee’s focus on economic growth rather than on reducing inflation, which ticked higher recently.The Overnight Index Swaps suggests rates will be on hold for some time, with a 1.0 percent chance of a rate cut at the meeting on Thursday. It is also important to watch whether or not the Committee expands the central bank’s asset purchase program again – it was increased to £275 billion at the October meeting – a move that would be an extension of quantitative easing, thus weakening the British Pound.
EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision: December 8 – 12:45 GMT
The European Central Bank is expected to cut its key interest rate to 1.00 percent at its meeting on December 8. At the previous ECB meeting in November, the Governing Council, in Mario Draghi’s first meeting as President, cut the key rate to 1.25 percent from 1.50 percent. According to the Credit Suisse Overnight Index Swaps, there is an 81.3 percent chance of a 25-basis point rate cut at the central bank meeting on Tuesday. As Euro-zone growth stalls and increasing pressure brought by the market comes down on periphery nations’ bond markets, Draghi has fielded an increasing number of calls by politicians and market participants alike to ease further, as a way to keep liquidity flowing. In fact, interbank lending has become such a concern that coordinated intervention last week was necessary to prevent the collapse of a major Euro-zone bank (rumored to be Credit Agricole). Save the Euro-zone Summit, this is the most important event of the week.
USD United States U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence (DEC P): December 9 – 14:55 GMT
Consumer confidence in the United States is forecasted to improve slightly in December’s preliminary reading, after rebounding in November back to 64.1. The 65.8 forecasted print comes after a string of better-than-expected data out of the United States suggests that the world’s largest economy might be able to avoid the second leg of a double dip recession, should the Euro-zone manage to stay together. Recent headwinds to confidence in recent weeks have been a deteriorating labor market and volatile oil prices, but with the United States avoiding another downgrade after the debt debate passed in November, confidence is expected to firm.
EUR Euro-zone Leaders’ Summit: December 8 to 9 – --:-- GMT
Just a month after the October summit that was expected to “solve everything,” Euro-zone leaders are back in Brussels to find agreement on how to stem the region’s quickly-spreading debt crisis. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy are expected to meet on Monday to unify their positions going into the meetings, and it is expected that they will announce that some sort of measures have been agreed upon ahead of the summit. This should lead to a rally in risk-appetite in the short-term, although no new measures will have been set forth, in all likelihood. The key points to take away from the summit are whether or not Eurobonds will be created and/or whether or not the European Central Bank is prepared to step into the bond markets indefinitely going forward. Few outcomes dictate Euro strength going forward, as any form of debt monetization would weigh on the Euro, akin to the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policy.
http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio...profitable.png
http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio...trade_pips.png
When is the Best Time of Day to Trade Forex?
In looking at the trading records of tens of thousands of FXCM clients, as well as talking with even more traders daily via webinars, email, and Twitter, it quickly becomes apparent that most individual forex traders are what are called “range traders”. It also becomes apparent that many of them have trouble being successful in forex because they are trading during the wrong time of day.
Most forex traders should trade during the late US, Asian or early European trading sessions – essentially 2 PM to 6 AM Eastern Time (New York), which is 7 PM to 11 AM UK time.
They should avoid trading during the most active times of the trading day. Why? We’ve seen records for thousands of traders, and we’ve seen what works and what doesn’t. Here is a chart of the profitable trades in FXCM accounts in the 5 most popular pairs, displayed by the hour of day:
http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio...dy_Chart_3.png
http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio...urly_Moves.png
The Trend Follower Strategy has just sold GBPUSD at 1.55283. The system recommends entering this trade at any price between 1.5498 and 1.55586. The signal was issued because our Speculative Sentiment Index is extremely negative, with a value of 1.6248. This suggests that the GBPUSD could be trending downwards.The 14-period Average True Range on a daily chart is 0.01212, so the stop loss has been set at 1.56495. This stop loss order is a trailing stop that will move down as the market moves down. There is no profit target for this strategy. We expect to be closed by the stop loss.Trend Follower is a trend trading strategy that aims to buy and hold rising currency pairs and to sell short and hold falling currency pairs. The strategy looks to buy when the Speculative Sentiment Index is below -1.5, and looks to short when it is above +1.5.
GBP/USD
http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/2...2132011122.png
Summary: North American trading hours tend to be the most difficult to trade in due to the high level of volatility in the market. Breakout trading strategies tend to do relatively well in volatile environments, so if you plan to trade during these times, look to trade breakouts.
Our past research shows that traders could be well-served restricting their trading to less-active trading hours, as general trader profitability tends to improve when markets are less volatile. But what if you can’t trade when it’s quiet? For traders who feel the need to be in the market during the more volatile times, here is some advice about how to do it.
http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio...dy_Chart_3.png
http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio...urly_Moves.png
We initially sold EURUSD at 1.3526 and revised our stop-loss to the breakeven level after the pair met our first objective at 1.3144. Prices are now showing a bullish Three Inside Up candlestick pattern above support at a falling trend line connecting key swing lows since November, hinting an upswing is ahead. We maintain a bearish bias and will look at any corrective gains as an opportunity to add to the short position. Initial resistance lines up in the 1.3144-1.3231 region.
http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_5.png
http://img406.imageshack.us/img406/5...ours2011en.gif