Could someone post some backtest data for GBPJPY so we can compare with GBPUSD posted by another user?
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Part Time Wealth Building System - "High-Low Trending" 9 replies
Dislikedkwackers,
i think you will find the close of the bar is the close that is taken (GMT 00:00) so you could wait until saturday and take a peek, see the close according to your broker, and set your trades up for the sunday/monday (depending on your time zone) open. I set my trades up yesterday afternoon as the Sunday open is actually 5.00am down here in Western Australia, a little too early for me.Ignored
DislikedIt might be just easier to move the stop to B/E or even positive a couple pips if you're far enough into the black. At least you'll know you won't end up with another losing trade.Ignored
DislikedFirst, a BIG THANKS!!! to Tkimble for sharing this and that big eye opener of a spreadsheet on Money Management, and to all those contributing to this thread.
I love this system and it's simplicity! However, as noted it does struggle in choppy markets. As a long time lurker I've found, as most of you have, that no system does well in all types of markets. The market is only going to do one of 3 things: Trend, Oscilate (wide ranging), or Channel (narrow ranging,chopy). So I guess the first thing is to identify what type of market we are currently in.
If Trending leave the system alone!
If Oscillating leave alone or possibly add James275's idea of using the 4hr chart as a guide: take the trade if it's in the direction of the 4hr trend or trendless, but no trade if it is opposite the 4hr trend as it is likley to be at the top of the oscillation and moving back the other way.
So what to do if it's Chopy??? Maybe use Daemien's idea of taking out relativly smaller predefined bites, 100-160, and re-enter at the current price with a new stoploss around the original 30 pips to protect profits and possibly catch the rest if it starts trending again.
Other ideas...
Add a RSI indicator for these times and only take trade if it's showing some strength.
Increase straddle to recent support & resistance areas plus a few pips so were only trading breakouts of these times.
It also occurs to me that choppy markets tend to be consolodation periods. In which case, chart patterns (Triangles, flags, wedges, ect.) should be forming on the daily and 4hr charts. Durring these chopy weeks only, we could look to the lower charts to identify the consolodation patern and place straddle according to the pattern instead of close price with stops placed on the other side of pattern as a pattern failure.
Daemien, Could you please post the weeks (dates) that didn't perform well when you get a chance??
Perhaps if we focus on how to trade these chopy weeks as a group we can make that Great Year Round stratagy. What do they call that again?? The Holy...???
Well anyway, Thanks again to all & Hope this helps in some way! Good Luck!
J.P.Ignored
Dislikedwell, today i paper-traded, back-tested the GBP/USD with my broker's/software's data. this was for my own benefit to get used to the strategy, see for myself, etc. etc.
i used the weekly chart to get the previous close ("entry") price.
i used daily and 4 hour charts to monitor daily/intraday swings to allow for whipsaws.
and.....drum roll.....attached are my results in an excel spreadsheet.
it's basic, but you can change your "bank" and your "leverage" to your own personal risk/trading profile and see what happens.
it's from the first week of 2006 to current.
for me, i get 5732 pips for the 13 months. so at $1 per pip, thats 57% return at 1:1
things to notice:
- some weeks there are up to 6 trades, 5 losses, 1 profit... and still, look at the results.
- with my variables, the bank never went below 0. this of course is historical data and is no indication of future results.
this is following the original rules and with GBP/USD.
what can i say... thanks... great system tkimble.
ryanIgnored
Disliked...hmm had a TradeStation test done on 3 min data, 2004, 2005 and 2006 - profitable each year 04 and 05 1500+ pips each, 2006 2600 pips but with 24 consecutive 30 pip losses. Quite a choppy equity curve, but fine for those with cast iron discipline. Not for me, i'd need a higher win rate trading this week in, week out.Ignored
DislikedYes. I am trading this system in conjunction with my trending system which I have posted under a different thread. I use both system in tantem. The weekly approach more than offsets the drawdowns from the trending approach...
Happy Trading,
TkimbleIgnored
Dislikedwhat is the link for the thread concerning your trending system?
thank you
emericIgnored
Dislikedthis is not consistent with what i backtested or what others have backtested in this forum. how did you get 24 consecutive 30 pip losses in 2006? are u following the rules strictly or using a modified version. also it will help if we know what month or weeks this happened?Ignored
DislikedIs anyone in on a trade on the GBPUSD at this point?
I've got a close price last week of 1.9738, so my entry and exit points are 1.9791 (50+3 spread) and 1.9685 (50-3 spread).
So far neither has hit. Hopefully we'll break into a trend at some point soon.Ignored