I have done just a small bit of work on some of the most recent ISM reports that have come out.
On Wednesday (one day delayed) we’ll get the latest ISM report. It can be a very influential report in the few days after it is released.
Here are the last two years of ISM Index results (in chart form, see below for the attachment). I am sure that you notice that the trend is down – the last reading was 49.50 and that showed that manufacturing activity is slowing down. Remember, if manufacturing activity is slowing, that means the economy as a whole is slowing, and that makes if far less likely that the US Fed is going to raise rates again, and more likely that the Fed will lower rates sometime in the next 6 months.
Here are some of the recent numbers. I expect a number at or below 49.5.
November 200649.5
October 200654.5
September 200651.2
August 200654.5
July 200654.7
The trend in manufacturing is clearly down, and that's the most important thing to remember. Of course this doesn't mean we can't get a surprise to the upside on the number.
Here are my forecasts as for currency movement post-ISM (and by this I don't mean 5 minutes after the report is released).
If the number is below 49.00, I expect the GBPUSD to rise at least 150 pips within 48 hours. If the number is above 52.00, I expect the GBPUSD to fall at least 150 pips (and probably more) within 48 hours. If the number is between 49.50 and 52.00, then the GBPUSD might bounce around until Friday’s employment report.
On Wednesday (one day delayed) we’ll get the latest ISM report. It can be a very influential report in the few days after it is released.
Here are the last two years of ISM Index results (in chart form, see below for the attachment). I am sure that you notice that the trend is down – the last reading was 49.50 and that showed that manufacturing activity is slowing down. Remember, if manufacturing activity is slowing, that means the economy as a whole is slowing, and that makes if far less likely that the US Fed is going to raise rates again, and more likely that the Fed will lower rates sometime in the next 6 months.
Here are some of the recent numbers. I expect a number at or below 49.5.
November 200649.5
October 200654.5
September 200651.2
August 200654.5
July 200654.7
The trend in manufacturing is clearly down, and that's the most important thing to remember. Of course this doesn't mean we can't get a surprise to the upside on the number.
Here are my forecasts as for currency movement post-ISM (and by this I don't mean 5 minutes after the report is released).
If the number is below 49.00, I expect the GBPUSD to rise at least 150 pips within 48 hours. If the number is above 52.00, I expect the GBPUSD to fall at least 150 pips (and probably more) within 48 hours. If the number is between 49.50 and 52.00, then the GBPUSD might bounce around until Friday’s employment report.
Attached Image