This was a good setup, smooth ellipse pullback, reversed church pattern, TC, powerbar, reached the 10pips easily....
but didn't take it :/
but didn't take it :/
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DislikedThanks for your honest opinion.
Yes, like Phillip is telling us (in his last MP3 post I think) - this system is to teach us patience and discipline as well as teaching us market rhythm.
My opinion:
1. It is not a big money making system - you'll make that with more longer time frame systems.
2. This is a intra-day scalping system and (I think) any intra-day scalping system requires patience and is stressful (except if you use a EA).
3. Once you become familiar with the system and setup, it is not really necessary to sit in front of the PC. I just scan the chart now and then while I am doing other stuff. You'll recognise the high probability much earlier and ignore the other setups. Like today on Skype - I saw the setups but I didn't like it (last two trades posted here). But I took it on my demo account just for fun with the guys on SKype.
I'll only sit in front of the PC after I've entered a trade and follow the price closely. The trade should end after 5-6candles (my 5-6candle rules). Noways I'll sit day in and day out in front of the PC.
I do see the members on Skype constantly saying "price is getting close to war zone" or "pullback is on it way". Then I look at the chart and I say to myself - "Wow, it didn't even catch my eye. Noways I'll even consider the setup. It is a waste of time and effort. I'll go and do sometime else." But that is how we practise trading this system.
I do agree - it is all about your style of trading. Do what you feel comfortable with. Don't force a system - it will never work.Ignored
DislikedHi Golfer,
I've tried this system (demo) for few months but it was very low success as happened to Eraserhead, may be I need more patience & discipline. I think I need to observe how the experienced people do their trade - just like decision making & etc...
For the the time being I think I need to observe only & I won't make any comment because I am still new & not that good enough.
I think it will help me a lot - to learn much faster speed if I listen to your skype group.
My skype name: pete alfa
I would be appreciated if you let me join your skype group & what's time are you normally starting?
Thank you,
PeteIgnored
DislikedGreat triangle breakout trade - if I am correct with my analysis/intepretation of your chart .Ignored
DislikedHi Pete
It was the same with me - I started with this system trying to entry each and every pullback and got burned too many times to be profitable. That was when I contacted Phillip and we worked through several setups. That was when he suggested the TCs on the MACD as high probability setup.
But as you can see, also not every TC is profitable. You need to study your 1-2pairs carefully and get use to the price actions. That is why I am looking for certain price pattern lately. It gives you a better signal of what you can expect to happen (but it doesn't always happen that way).
It is useless for me nowadays to say "Watch, the price is getting into the war zone. Get ready." It doesn't mean anything! Look for the price behaviour before the pullback and looking for certain signals - something like this:
1. Price is making higher highs
2. Triangle/Bearish 3/Church to right pattern is being formed
3. No pivot/fib/big number lines nearby
4. Price is found support on 10MA
5. Speed is fast/meduim/slow
6. MACD is close to form a TC
7. 4h rhythm/rules is in line with this move
8. Do we have a power candle on the signal bar of the MACD TC?
Just to name a few - not all will be applicable for a certain setup but it will help you to start looking/analising setup properly as they appear. That is what I mean by scanning the charts every now and then. Those are the sort of things I am looking for when scanning a chart.
I hope it helps.
edit - I did send you a Skype call. I'll add you when we are both on line. Better that way - otherwise one tends to struggle to receive the chat.Ignored
DislikedHi Mike
Just to clarify my previous post on divergence:
1. We do have two divergences on the chart numbered as Divergence 1 & 2 (the black and the green lines). That happens when the price is making lower lows but the MACD is NOT moving in line with the price (not making the same lower lows) but it is making higher lows.
2. The 3rd setup (blue lines) is not divergence but there is a higher low on the price/candles telling me not to consider taking the next pullback into the war zone.
That is how I see and I understand divergence. I hope it clarifies the divergences on this chart.
Any comments are welcome.
Edit 1: Therefore my trade was done before the first divergence appeared.Ignored
DislikedThanks Golfer,
I borrow your chart and assume I want to take this TC .I was wondering could I do that despite of lower high in MACD and price?
I guess I could.Sorry if my question is dump but one more push and I hope I get it!PLEASE
mikeIgnored
DislikedNo dump question what so every.
Personally I won't have taken the trade - just because of the higher low of the price and not because of the MACD pattern. Secondly there is no divergence where you put your question - why?
Look at the Cable chart of today:
1. Green lines - both made higher lows meaning they moved in the same direction. No divergence.
2. The same for the pink and orange lines - price and MACD make lower low. No divergence.
Now look at the eur chart:
1. Green line - price is making a lower low but the MACD is making a higher low, they don't move in the same direction. Divergence.
2. The same for the pink line - price is making lower lows but the MACD is making higher lows. Divergence
3. I fyou connect the last point of the green line and the last point of the pink line on the chart and you do the same with the MACD, there is no divergence. Both made lower lows.
I hope it helps
Cable also have the setup discussed on Skype - the 3 little sisters.Ignored
DislikedDear Golfer,
Thanks for your patient.Sorry,But I got 2 questions .
first : when you say :"Personally I won't have taken the trade - just because of the higher low of the price".
I think for all short TC's we will have the higher low in the price.
Not necessarily.
Because the price should retrace to 21 and again bounce off it so we will have higher Low.
You must be certain about what his mean by the Low and High. Bouncing off the 21 in a down trend means a lower highly is formed. In a down trend. We are looking at the three little sisters - three lower highs in a row.
In a down trend, I am more concerned about where the new lows are formed.
Higher lows mean that the trend could reverse. Then you start to look for the three big brothers - consecutive higher lows
sorry I am at work so I can't draw charts .I take my example from your today G/U chart.
In your Entry we do have Higher Low which make sense so I don't understand what do you mean by "Personally I won't have taken the trade - just because of the higher low of the price"
In a down trend, I usually look at where a new low is formed. If the new low is for above the previous low, and that is called a higher low. If it is below the previous low - it is called a lower low. I usually wait for a low or a high to form before making any conclusions.
my second question is :for your G/U entry you show the price and MACD direction with Green line which they are in the same direction so no divergence and you took the trade.THANK you so much.
but for the rest of your samples you didn't drew your lines for an entry,.I mean if you draw your line eaxactly after the TC happens and you wanna decide to enter or not wouldn't we have divergense for most of the time?
Once again, you should look where the recent low was formed and where the new low is. I am not sure I understand you on this one. Illustration on a chart, please, if possible.
I got the divergense clearly and really appericiat that.I guess I need half a push,don't I?
Not really, we need to clarify it and make it simple - much better to understand simple and clear issues.
Regards
MikeIgnored
DislikedLest look at the 8 TC setups on the previous chart (for those people stuggling with patience and discipline):
a. I did highlight the entry candle and the actual entry on each TC
b. The first 3 setups the entry is very close to the war zone, in fact they are on the 10MA. Perfect. Also very nice power candles on the signal bar of the TC
c. TC #3 is a nice zero break with only 2 bars above the zero line which is perfect.
d. All 3 are tradeable.
e. TC #4 & 5 are very close the pivot line and in no-mans land (very far from the war zone). Very risky.
f. I'll ignore both setup.
g. TC # 6 is another zero break TC with 4 bars above zero line (on the edge of being risky) but look at the acivities on the wrong side of the 21 marke das "X". However I'll take the setup
h. Then # 7 & 8. Once again entries are in no-mans land and the MACD is starting to make that teeth-like pattern which I don't like.
i. Then we get many activities on the wrong side of the 21 (Y & Z) and even a 50MA break. Now I am out and sit on the side.
I marked the rest of the TCs but I didn't even numbered them because they are high risk trade to me. It could work out (and it did) but I am not going to take the change.
Summary:
Like Phillip was saying after 3 setups in a run, it becomes risky to take the following setup. The first 3 of the 8 setups were perfect.
I hope it helpsIgnored