25 Aug 22. 0858 IST or 0328 GMT or 2328 EST
Good Morning!
Most currency pairs are likely to be ranged before showing any sharp directional movements. Dollar Index is holding above 108 and needs to break lower to fall towards 107.50 and pull Euro above 1.00 in the near term. EURJPY, Aussie, Pound, USDJPY and USDRUB can all trade in a sideways range of 138-135, 0.6850-0.6950/0.70, 1.17-1.19, 136-138 and 58.50-61 respectively. USDCNY needs to hold well above 6.85 to be bullish towards 6.90. USDINR can trade within 79.60/90 while EURINR is bullish while above 79 and can soon head towards 80 in the near term.
The US Treasury yields continue to rise and are keeping up our bullish view intact. The US Federal Reserve Chairman’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium will be an important event to see if it can provide further strength to the rally in yields or not. The German yields retain their bullish momentum and have room to rise further from here. The 10Yr looks mixed while the 5Yr is at a crucial resistance which if broken can take it higher in the coming days.
Dow could remain bearish while below the resistance at 33150-33300. Dax has rebounded a bit but may remain vulnerable while below the resistance at 13350. Nikkei has bounced back a bit but needs a sustained move above 28500/600 to rise and to negate a fall on the downside. Shanghai has fallen towards the support at 3200 but is holding up well for now. Nifty has risen back and has room to test 17700-17750 in the near term.
Brent needs to break above 102.5 to confirm further bullishness in the near term. WTI has room to rise further towards 100 in the near term. Gold has risen to target the resistance at 1775. Silver can slowly rise towards 19.5-20. Copper has declined and could be range bound for a few more sessions.
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