I want to talk about datas today:
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv
actual:
1.1%
Forecast:
2%
Previous:
2.6%
> bearish on rate hike BUT:
--------------------
MEDIUM
PCE Prices QoQ Adv (Q1)
Actual:
4.2% (!!)
Forecast:
0.5%
Previous:
3.7%
---------------------
That's another sign for recession. Inflation still going but GDP dropping. I think rate hike cannot yet end. That's now the price all have to pay because of quantitativ easing last 10 years. That's why dollar strengthend over the last 2 hours after first GDP-Shock (rate hike less likely but than people saw the PCE Price Numbers). Just my two cents.
I saw something similar on ZAR last weeks. Here it meant that the currency got more weaker (so GBP/USD up) but It took some days. - First it strengthend (saw today) and that the weakness were coming.
I cannot see any good trend next weeks because signals still mixed but recession is more likely now. Not sure what recession means for dollar strength/weakness - cause it is the dollar, not the ZAR (south african Rand).
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv
actual:
1.1%
Forecast:
2%
Previous:
2.6%
> bearish on rate hike BUT:
--------------------
MEDIUM
PCE Prices QoQ Adv (Q1)
Actual:
4.2% (!!)
Forecast:
0.5%
Previous:
3.7%
---------------------
That's another sign for recession. Inflation still going but GDP dropping. I think rate hike cannot yet end. That's now the price all have to pay because of quantitativ easing last 10 years. That's why dollar strengthend over the last 2 hours after first GDP-Shock (rate hike less likely but than people saw the PCE Price Numbers). Just my two cents.
I saw something similar on ZAR last weeks. Here it meant that the currency got more weaker (so GBP/USD up) but It took some days. - First it strengthend (saw today) and that the weakness were coming.
I cannot see any good trend next weeks because signals still mixed but recession is more likely now. Not sure what recession means for dollar strength/weakness - cause it is the dollar, not the ZAR (south african Rand).
6